Drawing up Farm Management Plans for Agri-Environmental Schemes

The role of and the approach to the countryside and the environment has undergone dramatic changes in recent decades as relations between sustainable, multi-functional agriculture and the need for preserving natural resources were realised. On the other hand, to be successful in a commercial environment farmers need financial planning and control. However, at this stage of privatisation process and development of rationalised farm businesses within Hungary, there exists a large number of small family-managed holdings where business and production skills are at an elementary level. Moreover, application for agricultural state support and planned subsidy priorities of agro-environmental programs will be linked to the condition of having clear business and management plan. These facts represent a growing demand for establishing of rural extension services and an increased need for sound farm business planning. The objective of the research is to elaborate a computerised planning methodology that help farmers not only to exercise effective management controls over the financial aspects of their business through proper planning and record keeping based on calculations of up-to-date information but to encourage the introduction and use of farming practices compatible with the increasing demands of protection of the environment and natural resources (multifunctional agriculture) as well. The methodology is suitable for producing sustainability indices in order to characterise the environment. Well-known and widely applied methods, such as calculation of gross margin, internal rate of return and net present value liked to issues which were previously little focused on, such as manure production and use, or studying the N cycle within the farm. The methodology is tested in selected case study areas and it is investigated what sort of changes are required on farm level to achieve environmental and economic sustainability and how should farm-level based systems be designed to prevent increased negative externalities of agricultural production with respect to Hungarian circumstances.Farm Management, Agri-environmental Programme, Planning., Financial Economics,

Economic Modeling of Hungarian Farms Incorporating Nature Conservation

Hungary's imminent entrance into the EU calls for a farm-level financial support system aiming at combining agricultural production with nature conservation targets. Within the Hungarian National Agri-environmental Programme (NAEP) for the Environmentally Sensitive Areas, a payment system was developed. For each individual region the amount of support for every environmentally friendly farming prescription package (tier) was established using the support calculation methodology of the EU. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of the packages on the income of an individual mixed farm. In contrast to many other studies, in the current study the analysis was carried out with the context of the whole farm, taking into consideration the entire production structure. The amount of support which the farmer needs to sign up for a contract turned out to be quite different from the actual payments done by the Hungarian government.Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

Ukraine’s agriculture: potential for expanding grain supply. Economic and institutional challenges.

Ukraine is one of the few countries in the world that is in a position to significantly increase grain net exports, due to its strategic location and agro-ecological potential of its soils. The grain production potential of Ukraine depends on the two main factors: land area cultivated and yield. This report analyses possibility of increasing both of these factors, highlighting the unstable character of land area under grain and defining the causes of such fluctuations including extreme weather conditions, absence of crop insurance system, lack of environmental measures and unsustainable mid- and long-term state policy in grain production and trade. The rapid emergency of large intensive agricultural enterprises and agro-holdings in the last decade is widely promoted by policy makers due to their effectiveness; however in terms of operational efficiency, environmental footprint and monetary productivity, peasant farms often have better results, as we have shown in this report. In terms of economic and institutional challenges, we have analysed issues with logistics and trade infrastructure, rule of law, transparency of grain markets and financial support to the farmers. As a result of the analysis, we can conclude that by liberalizing its markets, improving the rule of law and providing more state support for sustainable agricultural practices and infrastructure development, Ukraine shall be able to increase its grain production and exports, attract more investment into the sector and improve producer profitability.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

IMPACTS OF POLICY REFORM ON SUSTAINABILITY OF HILL FARMING IN UK BY MEANS OF BIO-ECONOMIC MODELLING

Hill farming in UK is experiencing very difficult economic circumstances and many farmers rely on subsidies provided by the government for a large fraction of their income. The Peak District National Park is used as a case study to examine how farmers might respond to current policy changes � in particular, the move from area- and headage-based payments to the Single Farm Payment, and how optimal business plans should respond to these changes. The objective of this paper is thus to develop production models that predict how farmers will respond to changing policy framework conditions. For this purpose socio-economic surveys were carried out on 44 sample farms, in order to investigate how the land is managed on hill farms including ongoing policies and future farm management planning. Based on these surveys a series of representative farm linear programming models was developed, which represent typical farm types in the uplands in the Peak District. In this study the focus is on typical sheep and beef farm type, the most common in this region. This model is used to calculate the effect of different policies, carried out under CAP reform, on incomes, land use and the intensity of production. We also consider the impacts of a complete removal of subsidy.CAP reform, Single Farm Payment, hill farming, linear programming model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

The effect of decoupling on marginal agricultural systems: implications for farm incomes, land use and upland ecology

In many parts of Europe, decades of production subsidies led to the steady intensification of agriculture in marginal areas, but the recent decoupling of subsidies from production decisions means that the future of farming in these areas is uncertain. For example, in the uplands of the United Kingdom, an area important both for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service provision, hill farmers steadily increased stocking densities in response to headage payments but must now reconfigure farm businesses to account for the shift to the Single Farm Payment scheme. We examined hill farming in the Peak District National Park as a case study into the future of marginal agriculture after decoupling. We surveyed 44 farm businesses and from this identified six representative farm types based on enterprise mix and land holdings. We developed linear programming models of production decisions for each farm type to examine the impacts of policy changes, comparing the effects of decoupling with and without agri-environment and hill farm support, and evaluating the effects of removal of the Single Farm Payment. The main effects of decoupling are to reduce stocking rates, and to change the mix of livestock activities. Agri-environmental schemes mediate the income losses from decoupling, and farmers are predicted to maximise take up of new Environmental Stewardship programmes, which have both positive and negative feedback effects on livestock numbers. Finally, removal of the Single Farm Payment would lead to negative net farm incomes, and some land abandonment. These changes have important implications for ongoing debates about how ecological service flows can be maintained from upland areas, and how marginal upland farming communities can be sustained

Likely Impacts of Future Agricultural Change on Upland Farming and Biodiversity

Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses of biodiversity in Europe, partly driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes have particularly affected avian (bird) diversity in marginal areas such as the uplands of the UK. We developed integrated ecological-economic models, using eight different indicators of biodiversity based on avian species richness and individual bird densities. The models represent six different types of farms which are typical for the UK uplands, and were used to assess the outcomes of different agricultural futures. Our results show that the impacts of these future agricultural scenarios on farm incomes, land use and biodiversity are very diverse across policy scenarios and farm types. Moreover, each policy scenario produces un-equal distributions of farm income changes, and gains and losses in alternative biodiversity indicators. This shows that generalisations of the effects of land use change on biodiversity can be misleading. Our results also suggest that a focus on umbrella species or indicators (such as total richness) can miss important compositional effects

Analysis of the use of models by the European Commission in its Impact Assessments for the period 2009 - 2014

Impact Assessments (IA)are a key element in the development of policy proposals by the European Commission (EC). They provide evidence for political decision makers on the advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options by assessing their potential impacts. This evidence should be quantified whenever possible, and hence it is of interest to examine to what extent models have been used in IAs. The purpose of this report is to understand how the EC is positioned with respect to external providers as regards modelling contributions to IAs, as well to provide an input into potential future development of the Commission's model portfolio. The results of a statistical analysis for the period 2009-2014 shows that 16 % of the published 512 IAs used models or were predominantly model-based. In terms of absolute numbers, Directorate Generals (DGs) CLIMA, ENER, ENV and MOVE account for more than half (51) of the 91 model-based IAs . Within the model-based IAs, 52% used results exclusively or partially provided by external contractors, while 48% used models run in-house by DG JRC. The Commission uses a wide range of models (91 for the IAs during 2009-2014), roughly 60% of which were used only once. The 24 most frequently-used models represent 70% of all cases in which modelling were used for an IA. Notably 11 of them account for roughly 48%, almost all being run by contractors, mostly in tandem for energy-transport-climate policy scenarios. The most frequently-used model is PRIMES, used in 28 out of 263 cases (11% of the cases), followed by 10 other models which are used exclusively or predominantly with PRIMES in the context of the energy-climate scenarios (GEM-E3, TREMOVE, CAPRI, POLES, G4M, GAINS, GLOBIOM, LUISA, PROMETHEUS and TRANSTOOLS). Frequently-used models for the economic and monetary union are the in-house models QUEST and SYMBOL. The most frequently-used models of DG JRC number about 10 which have been used in 46 cases; these are energy models (GEM-E3 and POLES), followed by environmental models (the LUISA modelling platform and LISFLOOD), the micro-economic model for financial markets SYMBOL, the transport model TRANSTOOLS and the agricultural models belonging to the iMAP platform - CAPRI and AGLINK-COSIMO.JRC.A.2-Work Programm

Rural poverty reduction and food security: The case of smallholders in Sierra Leone

Sierra Leones ranks amongst the poorest countries in the world in terms of per capita GDP, due to several factors. Concerning the agricultural sector and more specifically smallholders, which constitute the big majority of farmers, inadequate tools, land preparation, infrastructure and limited access to markets and inputs, adding to very low labour productivity, cause that smallholders operate far below their productive potential, with crop production remaining primarily driven by (semi)subsistence households generating very little income. Consequently, Sierra Leone's subsistence farming system is characterised by a highly inefficient input/output mixes as well as high pre harvest and post harvest losses. Farmers lack access to yield-increasing inputs (such as improved tools) and face limited ability to invest in economic activities not only due to credit shortage but also to village-level institutional arrangements which do not support using land as collateral for loans. Lastly, reduced cash-income keeps smallholders particularly vulnerable to remain in the poverty-trap. The present report analyses the results of a survey of 604 smallholders in 5 districts in the Northern and Eastern regions of Sierra Leone carried out in 2009 when the EU STABEX-funded projects were concluding. The purpose is on the one hand, to improve knowledge and understanding of the agri-economic and social conditions of rural areas in Sierra Leone, and on the other hand to provide a general assessment of aid programmes financed in this area by the 8th European Development Fund. For this reason, the regions selected for the survey were those representatives of the main agricultural areas of the country where support was provided: the Northern region largely dominated by rice farmers, and the Eastern region where rice farmers are also engaged in coffee and cocoa production under agro-forestry plots. While rice (main staple food) production is expected to comply with food security objectives, coffee and cocoa (main export commodities) are high value export commodities which push economic growth. Consequently, both types of crops are considered relevant in contributing to the country's development. The results of the economic analysis indicate that rice production, which largely covers own household consumption, is far below its potential due to high losses, low productivity and labour-intensity of farming, particularly in the Northern region. On the other hand, coffee and cocoa production in the Eastern region was found to be economically profitable, generating income for most of those smallholders who cultivate those crops. Regarding farm households' characteristics and income, strong regional differences between the poorer North and relatively wealthier East were observed and reflected throughout all factors analysed: yields, household size, sources of farming income, magnitude of losses and productivity. Households in the Eastern region who produce coffee and cocoa, also dispose on average of more family labour, more land and higher income compared to households in the Northern Region. Rice was recognized as being an imperative component for food security while the high market value of coffee and cocoa confirmed both commodities as important sources of income and foreign currency. Qualitative data from the survey indicated that the STABEX aid programmes were perceived as adequate in terms of their technical nature as well as regarding infrastructure and organizational improvements. However, the amount of aid was deemed altogether insufficient considering the number of households requiring assistance. In this sense, the responses to perceived adequacy do not evaluate the measure itself, but rather the amount provided in relation to local needs as understood by the recipients. Based on this analysis a set of recommendations for the policy are drawn.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Modelling Inventory and Knowledge Management System of the European Commission (MIDAS)

The Modelling Inventory and Knowledge Management System of the European Commission (MIDAS) is a Commission-wide knowledge management tool for modelling, enabling enhanced transparency and traceability of models in use for EC policy making. It forms an integral part of the Competence Centre on Modelling (CC-MOD) of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC). This document describes MIDAS, by providing a bird's-eye view of the MIDAS content, architecture, and functionality, and identifying the benefits of the system for the organisation and in the context of the Better Regulation Agenda.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

Semantic Text Analysis tool: SeTA

An ever-growing number and length of documents, number and depth of topics covered by legislation, and ever new phrases and their slowly changing meaning, these are all contributing factors that make policy analysis more and more complex. As implication, human policy analysts and policy developers face increasing entanglement of both content and semantical levels. To overcome several of these issues, JRC has developed a central pilot tool called AI-KEAPA to support policy analysis and development in any domain. Recent developments in big data, machine learning and especially in natural language processing allow converting unfathomable complexity of many hundreds of thousands of documents into a normalised high-dimensional vector space preserving the knowledge. Unstructured text in document corpora and big data sources, until recently considered just an archive, is quickly becoming core source of analytical information using text mining methods to extract qualitative and quantitative data. Semantic analysis allows us to extract better information for policy analysis from metadata titles and abstracts than from the structured human-entered descriptions. This digital assistant allows document search and extraction over many different sources, discovery of phrase meaning, context and temporal development. It can recommend most relevant documents including their semantic and temporal interdependencies. But most importantly, it helps bursting knowledge bubbles and fast-learning new domains. This way we hope to mainstream artificial intelligence into policy support. The tool is now fit for purpose. It was thoroughly tested in real-life conditions for about two years mainly in the area of legislative impact assessments for policy formulation, and other domains such as large data infrastructure analysis, agri-environmental measures or natural disasters, some of which are detailed in this document. This approach boosts the strategic JRC focus on application of scientific analysis and development. This service adds to the JRC competence and central position in semantic reasoning for policy analysis, active information recommendation, and inferred knowledge in policy design and development.JRC.I.3-Text and Data Minin