Representing, planning and evaluating audit evidence with belief function theory.

This paper presents a framework for the representation, planning and evaluation of uncertain audit evidence using a belief-function approach. We only consider the case of a financial statement audit. The framework allows for the modeling of audit risk and audit evidence at different levels of detail, thereby incorporating dependencies at all levels. It provides the information needed to plan an efficient audit and provides means for intermediate and final evaluation. The paper includes a basic introduction to belief-function theory. Then the framework is described in detail, first for aggregation purposes, then for disaggregation. Next, it is explained how different types of audit evidence should be represented. Finally, we use the audit of the sales and collection cycle and one other fictitious cycle to illustrate representation as well as planning and intermediate and final evaluation. We conclude with a discussion.Planning; Theory;

Combining local- and large-scale models to predict the distributions of invasive plant species

Habitat-distribution models are increasingly used to predict the potential distributions of invasive species and to inform monitoring. However, these models assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment, which is clearly not true for most invasive species. Although this assumption is frequently acknowledged, solutions have not been adequately addressed. There are several potential methods for improving habitat-distribution models. Models that require only presence data may be more effective for invasive species, but this assumption has rarely been tested. In addition, combining modeling types to form ‘ensemble’ models may improve the accuracy of predictions. However, even with these improvements, models developed for recently invaded areas are greatly influenced by the current distributions of species and thus reflect near- rather than long-term potential for invasion. Larger scale models from species’ native and invaded ranges may better reflect long-term invasion potential, but they lack finer scale resolution. We compared logistic regression (which uses presence/absence data) and two presence-only methods for modeling the potential distributions of three invasive plant species on the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State, USA. We then combined the three methods to create ensemble models. We also developed climate-envelope models for the same species based on larger scale distributions and combined models from multiple scales to create an index of near- and long-term invasion risk to inform monitoring in Olympic National Park (ONP). Neither presence-only nor ensemble models were more accurate than logistic regression for any of the species. Larger scale models predicted much greater areas at risk of invasion. Our index of near- and long-term invasion risk indicates that \u3c4% of ONP is at high near-term risk of invasion while 67-99% of the Park is at moderate or high long-term risk of invasion. We demonstrate how modeling results can be used to guide the design of monitoring protocols and monitoring results can in turn be used to refine models. We propose that by using models from multiple scales to predict invasion risk and by explicitly linking model development to monitoring, it may be possible to overcome some of the limitations of habitat-distribution models

For Young Men Planning to Farm

If you plan to farm, the fact that the number of farms is decreasing tells only part of the story. In many ways, the larger units resulting offer increased challenge, responsibility and opportunity for those who will farm

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study: Hydropower Analysis

The U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) study of 20% Wind Energy by 2030 was conducted to consider the benefits, challenges, and costs associated with sourcing 20% of U.S. energy consumption from wind power by 2030. This study found that with proactive measures, no insurmountable barriers were identified to meet the 20% goal. Following this study, DOE and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted two more studies: the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS) covering the eastern portion of the U.S., and the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS) covering the western portion of the United States. The WWSIS was conducted by NREL and research partner General Electric (GE) in order to provide insight into the costs, technical or physical barriers, and operational impacts caused by the variability and uncertainty of wind, photovoltaic, and concentrated solar power when employed to serve up to 35% of the load energy in the WestConnect region (Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wyoming). WestConnect is composed of several utility companies working collaboratively to assess stakeholder and market needs to and develop cost-effective improvements to the western wholesale electricity market. Participants include the Arizona Public Service, El Paso Electric Company, NV Energy, Public Service of New Mexico, Salt River Project, Tri-State Generation and Transmission Cooperative, Tucson Electric Power, Xcel Energy and the Western Area Power Administration

DPOAE assessment of cochlear function in tinnitus subjects with normal hearing sensitivity

Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2009.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 48-50).Tinnitus, the perception of sound in the absence of an external acoustic source, disrupts the daily life of 1 out of every 200 adults, yet its physiological basis remains largely a mystery. While tinnitus and hearing loss (i.e., elevated pure tone thresholds) commonly co-occur, many people without hearing loss experience tinnitus, raising the question of whether cochlear pathology is always a prerequisite for this percept. This study used distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) to evaluate the cochlear amplifier of 13 tinnitus subjects and 13 non-tinnitus subjects (matched by age, sex, and audiogram) across a broad range of frequencies and intensities. DPOAE magnitudes were measured for at least 52 frequencies (500 Hz <f2 5 8 kHz, with f2ff=1.2) and nine intensities (20 dB < L2 5 60 dB, with L, = 39 + 0.4L2) in each ear. Further, this study only considered ears with normal audiograms and unremarkable history so that any abnormal findings could not be attributed large-scale hair cell damage within the cochlea. Consistent differences in the shape of the DP-gram (DPOAE magnitude as a function of presentation frequency, f2) were found in tinnitus subjects. A quantitative method for assessing DP-gram shape was developed, and statistical analyses were performed to determine whether tinnitus or other patient characteristics correlated with the abnormal DP-gram shape. The data collected in this study suggest peripheral auditory malfunction in tinnitus subjects with normal audiograms.by Leah C. Acker.S.M

Generalizing about trade show effectiveness: a cross-national comparison.

Trade shows are a multi-billion dollar business in the US and the UK, but little is known about the determinants of trade show effectiveness. In this paper, we build a model that explains differences in trade show effectiveness across industries, across companies and across two countries. We focus on the differences in trade show effectiveness measured in a similar way across similar samples of 171 US and 135 UK firm-show experiences between 1980 and 1991. While the similarities outweigh the differences, we find evidence that trade shows are viewed differently by exhibitors and attendees in these two countries. We are able to make substantial generalizations about the effect of various show selection (go-not go) variables (booth size, personnel, etc.) on observed performance. We discuss the implications of our research for developing benchmarks for trade show performance and for better global management of the business marketing communications mix.Effectiveness; Trade;

Three-Flavour Neutrino-Mixing Implications of the LSND Result

The LSND result is shown to fit into a minimal three-flavour neutrino-mixing scenario capable of describing all known experimental facts provided the large Delta M^2 = m_3^2 - m_2^2 \sim m_3^2 - m_1^2 lies in the range 2.5 x 10^{-1} < Delta M^2 < 3.0 eV^2. In this range the value of P_{\mu\tau} is expected to be about 5% or larger.Comment: 10 pages, 2 eps figures, LaTeX 2.09, revised for Physics Letters