Big Data Analytics for Integrated Infectious Disease Surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa

Background: Infectious disease outbreaks are common in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Consequently, integrated public health surveillance has become increasingly essential for the region. Health surveillance systems enable early detection and monitoring of emerging and re-emerging disease outbreaks, thus informing preparedness and response measures. However, complex and intertwined factors obstruct a successful integrated public health surveillance in SSA, with dire consequences. Objectives: The objective of this article was to establish how big data analytics can be used to enhance integrated infectious disease surveillance and response in SSA. Method: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) was used to identify and select relevant articles. A total of 10 studies that addressed the article’s objective were selected. Results: Findings reveal several barriers to the application of big data analytics for public health surveillance in SSA. These include the absence of regulatory and data governance frameworks for big data management in healthcare, disparities in digital health infrastructure across SSA’s healthcare systems, and the digital and analytical skills required for data capture and interpretation. The development of regulatory frameworks is essential for the ethical application of analytical technologies such as artificial intelligence. Conclusion: This article’s contributions emphasise the need for comprehensive strategies for the application of big data analytics for public health surveillance, as well as addressing barriers to its successful application by highlighting the requirements for an integrated infectious disease surveillance and response system in SSA. Contribution: The article contributes to the body of knowledge on the interplay between the public health space and digital health interventions by emphasising the beneficial applications of big data analytics for surveillance and response to address emerging and re-emerging infectious disease outbreaks in the health systems of sub-Saharan Africa

The COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions to essential health services in Kenya:A retrospective time-series analysis

Background: Public health emergencies can disrupt the provision of and access to essential health-care services, exacerbating health crises. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on essential health-care services in Kenya. Methods: Using county-level data routinely collected from the health information system from health facilities across the country, we used a robust mixed-effect model to examine changes in 17 indicators of essential health services across four periods: the pre-pandemic period (from January, 2018 to February, 2020), two pandemic periods (from March to November 2020, and February to October, 2021), and the period during the COVID-19-associated health-care workers' strike (from December, 2020 to January, 2021). Findings: In the pre-pandemic period, we observed a positive trend for multiple indicators. The onset of the pandemic was associated with statistically significant decreases in multiple indicators, including outpatient visits (28·7%; 95% CI 16·0-43·5%), cervical cancer screening (49·8%; 20·6-57·9%), number of HIV tests conducted (45·3%; 23·9-63·0%), patients tested for malaria (31·9%; 16·7-46·7%), number of notified tuberculosis cases (26·6%; 14·7-45·1%), hypertension cases (10·4%; 6·0-39·4%), vitamin A supplements (8·7%; 7·9-10·5%), and three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus toxoid, and pertussis vaccine administered (0·9%; 0·5-1·3%). Pneumonia cases reduced by 50·6% (31·3-67·3%), diarrhoea by 39·7% (24·8-62·7%), and children attending welfare clinics by 39·6% (23·5-47·1%). Cases of sexual violence increased by 8·0% (4·3-25·0%). Skilled deliveries, antenatal care, people with HIV infection newly started on antiretroviral therapy, confirmed cases of malaria, and diabetes cases detected were not significantly affected negatively. Although most of the health indicators began to recover during the pandemic, the health-care workers' strike resulted in nearly all indicators falling to numbers lower than those observed at the onset or during the pre-strike pandemic period. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated health-care workers' strike in Kenya have been associated with a substantial disruption of essential health services, with the use of outpatient visits, screening and diagnostic services, and child immunisation adversely affected. Efforts to maintain the provision of these essential health services during a health-care crisis should target the susceptible services to prevent the exacerbation of associated disease burdens during such health crises. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Low-dose aspirin for the prevention of preterm delivery in nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy (ASPIRIN): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth remains a common cause of neonatal mortality, with a disproportionately high burden in low-income and middle-income countries. Meta-analyses of low-dose aspirin to prevent pre-eclampsia suggest that the incidence of preterm birth might also be decreased, particularly if initiated before 16 weeks of gestation. METHODS: ASPIRIN was a randomised, multicountry, double-masked, placebo-controlled trial of low-dose aspirin (81 mg daily) initiated between 6 weeks and 0 days of pregnancy, and 13 weeks and 6 days of pregnancy, in nulliparous women with an ultrasound confirming gestational age and a singleton viable pregnancy. Participants were enrolled at seven community sites in six countries (two sites in India and one site each in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guatemala, Kenya, Pakistan, and Zambia). Participants were randomly assigned (1:1, stratified by site) to receive aspirin or placebo tablets of identical appearance, via a sequence generated centrally by the data coordinating centre at Research Triangle Institute International (Research Triangle Park, NC, USA). Treatment was masked to research staff, health providers, and patients, and continued until 36 weeks and 7 days of gestation or delivery. The primary outcome of incidence of preterm birth, defined as the number of deliveries before 37 weeks\u27 gestational age, was analysed in randomly assigned women with pregnancy outcomes at or after 20 weeks, according to a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) protocol. Analyses of our binary primary outcome involved a Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test stratified by site, and generalised linear models to obtain relative risk (RR) estimates and associated confidence intervals. Serious adverse events were assessed in all women who received at least one dose of drug or placebo. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02409680, and the Clinical Trial Registry-India, CTRI/2016/05/006970. FINDINGS: From March 23, 2016 to June 30, 2018, 14 361 women were screened for inclusion and 11 976 women aged 14-40 years were randomly assigned to receive low-dose aspirin (5990 women) or placebo (5986 women). 5780 women in the aspirin group and 5764 in the placebo group were evaluable for the primary outcome. Preterm birth before 37 weeks occurred in 668 (11·6%) of the women who took aspirin and 754 (13·1%) of those who took placebo (RR 0·89 [95% CI 0·81 to 0·98], p=0·012). In women taking aspirin, we also observed significant reductions in perinatal mortality (0·86 [0·73-1·00], p=0·048), fetal loss (infant death after 16 weeks\u27 gestation and before 7 days post partum; 0·86 [0·74-1·00], p=0·039), early preterm delivery (\u3c34 \u3eweeks; 0·75 [0·61-0·93], p=0·039), and the incidence of women who delivered before 34 weeks with hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (0·38 [0·17-0·85], p=0·015). Other adverse maternal and neonatal events were similar between the two groups. INTERPRETATION: In populations of nulliparous women with singleton pregnancies from low-income and middle-income countries, low-dose aspirin initiated between 6 weeks and 0 days of gestation and 13 weeks and 6 days of gestation resulted in a reduced incidence of preterm delivery before 37 weeks, and reduced perinatal mortality. FUNDING: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in Kenya:A multicentre cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To assess outcomes of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 and to determine the predictors of mortality. SETTING: This study was conducted in six facilities, which included both government and privately run secondary and tertiary level facilities in the central and coastal regions of Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: We enrolled 787 reverse transcriptase-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV2-infected persons. Patients whose records could not be accessed were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was COVID-19-related death. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to determine factors related to in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Data from patients with 787 COVID-19 were available. The median age was 43 years (IQR 30–53), with 505 (64%) being men. At admission, 455 (58%) were symptomatic with an additional 63 (9%) developing clinical symptoms during hospitalisation. The most common symptoms were cough (337, 43%), loss of taste or smell (279, 35%) and fever (126, 16%). Comorbidities were reported in 340 (43%), with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and HIV documented in 130 (17%), 116 (15%), 53 (7%), respectively. 90 (11%) were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for a mean of 11 days, 52 (7%) were ventilated with a mean of 10 days, 107 (14%) died. The risk of death increased with age (HR 1.57 (95% CI 1.13 to 2.19)) for persons >60 years compared with those <60 years old; having comorbidities (HR 2.34 (1.68 to 3.25)) and among men (HR 1.76 (1.27 to 2.44)) compared with women. Elevated white cell count and aspartate aminotransferase were associated with higher risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of death from COVID-19 is high among older patients, those with comorbidities and among men. Clinical parameters including patient clinical signs, haematology and liver function tests were associated with risk of death and may guide stratification of high-risk patients

Draft genome sequence of Solanum aethiopicum provides insights into disease resistance, drought tolerance, and the evolution of the genome

The African eggplant (Solanum aethiopicum) is a nutritious traditional vegetable used in many African countries, including Uganda and Nigeria. It is thought to have been domesticated in Africa from its wild relative, Solanum anguivi. S.aethiopicum has been routinely used as a source of disease resistance genes for several Solanaceae crops, including Solanum melongena. A lack of genomic resources has meant that breeding of S. aethiopicum has lagged behind other vegetable crops. Results: We assembled a 1.02-Gb draft genome of S. aethiopicum, which contained predominantly repetitive sequences (78.9%). We annotated 37,681 gene models, including 34,906 protein-coding genes. Expansion of disease resistance genes was observed via 2 rounds of amplification of long terminal repeat retrotransposons, which may have occurred ∼1.25 and 3.5 million years ago, respectively. By resequencing 65 S. aethiopicum and S. anguivi genotypes, 18,614,838 single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified, of which 34,171 were located within disease resistance genes. Analysis of domestication and demographic history revealed active selection for genes involved in drought tolerance in both “Gilo” and “Shum” groups. A pan-genome of S. aethiopicum was assembled, containing 51,351 protein-coding genes; 7,069 of these genes were missing from the reference genome. Conclusions: The genome sequence of S. aethiopicum enhances our understanding of its biotic and abiotic resistance. The single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified are immediately available for use by breeders. The information provided here will accelerate selection and breeding of the African eggplant, as well as other crops within the Solanaceae family

An Observational Cohort Comparison of Facilitators of Retention in Care and Adherence to Anti-Eetroviral Therapy at an HIV Treatment Center in Kenya

BACKGROUND: Most HIV treatment programs in resource-limited settings utilize multiple facilitators of adherence and retention in care but there is little data on the efficacy of these methods. We performed an observational cohort analysis of a treatment program in Kenya to assess which program components promote adherence and retention in HIV care in East Africa. METHODS: Patients initiating ART at A.I.C. Kijabe Hospital were prospectively enrolled in an observational study. Kijabe has an intensive program to promote adherence and retention in care during the first 6 months of ART that incorporates the following facilitators: home visits by community health workers, community based support groups, pharmacy counseling, and unannounced pill counts by clinicians. The primary endpoint was time to treatment failure, defined as a detectable HIV-1 viral load; discontinuation of ART; death; or loss to follow-up. Time to treatment failure for each facilitator was calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. The relative effects of the facilitators were determined by the Cox Proportional Hazards Model. RESULTS: 301 patients were enrolled. Time to treatment failure was longer in patients participating in support groups (448 days vs. 337 days, P<0.001), pharmacy counseling (480 days vs. 386 days, P = 0.002), pill counts (482 days vs. 189 days, P<0.001) and home visits (485 days vs. 426 days, P = 0.024). Better adherence was seen with support groups (89% vs. 82%, P = 0.05) and pill counts (89% vs. 75%, P = 0.02). Multivariate analysis using the Cox Model found significant reductions in risk of treatment failure associated with pill counts (HR = 0.19, P<0.001) and support groups (HR = 0.43, P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: Unannounced pill counts by the clinician and community based support groups were associated with better long term treatment success and with better adherence

Agreement between physicians and non-physician clinicians in starting antiretroviral therapy in rural Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The scarcity of physicians in sub-Saharan Africa – particularly in rural clinics staffed only by non-physician health workers – is constraining access to HIV treatment, as only they are legally allowed to start antiretroviral therapy in the HIV-positive patient. Here we present a pilot study from Uganda assessing agreement between non-physician clinicians (nurses and clinical officers) and physicians in their decisions as to whether to start therapy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted the study at 12 government antiretroviral therapy sites in three regions of Uganda, all of which had staff trained in delivery of antiretroviral therapy using the WHO Integrated Management of Adult and Adolescent Illness guidelines for chronic HIV care. We collected seven key variables to measure patient assessment and the decision as to whether to start antiretroviral therapy, the primary variable of interest being the Final Antiretroviral Therapy Recommendation. Patients saw either a clinical officer or nurse first, and then were screened identically by a blinded physician during the same clinic visit. We measured inter-rater agreement between the decisions of the non-physician health workers and physicians in the antiretroviral therapy assessment variables using simple and weighted Kappa analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two hundred fifty-four patients were seen by a nurse and physician, while 267 were seen by a clinical officer and physician. The majority (> 50%) in each arm of the study were in World Health Organization Clinical Stages I and II and therefore not currently eligible for antiretroviral therapy according to national antiretroviral therapy guidelines. Nurses and clinical officers both showed moderate to almost perfect agreement with physicians in their Final Antiretroviral Therapy Recommendation (unweighted κ = 0.59 and κ = 0.91, respectively). Agreement was also substantial for nurses versus physicians for assigning World Health Organization Clinical Stage (weighted κ = 0.65), but moderate for clinical officers versus physicians (κ = 0.44).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Both nurses and clinical officers demonstrated strong agreement with physicians in deciding whether to initiate antiretroviral therapy in the HIV patient. This could lead to immediate benefits with respect to antiretroviral therapy scale-up and decentralization to rural areas in Uganda, as non-physician clinicians – particularly clinical officers – demonstrated the capacity to make correct clinical decisions to start antiretroviral therapy. These preliminary data warrant more detailed and multicountry investigation into decision-making of non-physician clinicians in the management of HIV disease with antiretroviral therapy, and should lead policy-makers to more carefully explore task-shifting as a shorter-term response to addressing the human resource crisis in HIV care and treatment.</p