Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Diferenciais de mortalidade entre as regiões metropolitanas de Belo Horizonte e Salvador, 1985-1995 Mortality differentials between metropolitan areas of Brazil, 1985-1995

OBJETIVO: Analisar a evolução da mortalidade, por idade e sexo, segundo as causas de morte, nas regiões metropolitanas de Belo Horizonte (RMBH) e Salvador (RMS), entre 1985 e 1995. MÉTODOS: Os dados utilizados foram provenientes do Registro Civil, fornecidos pelo SIM (Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade do Ministério da Saúde). As causas de morte foram classificadas em evitáveis e não evitáveis. Aplicou-se o método de decomposição de Pollard para analisar a contribuição, na evolução dos ganhos de esperança de vida ao nascer, dos grupos de causas que tiveram um aumento da sua participação relativa na estrutura da mortalidade. RESULTADOS: O processo de declínio da mortalidade, em curso nas regiões metropolitanas estudadas, vem sofrendo mudanças nas últimas décadas com uma tendência à redução dos diferenciais existentes. No seu conjunto, as causas evitáveis reduziram seu peso relativo em ambas as regiões: na RMBH, de 36,5%, em 1985, para 30,6%, em 1995, entre os homens, e de 34,9%, em 1985, para 28%, em 1995, entre as mulheres. Na RMS, observou-se uma redução maior da participação relativa para as mulheres: de 35,4%, em 1985, para 25,9%, em 1995. Para os homens, essa participação passou de 44% do total, em 1985, para 39,7%, em 1995. CONCLUSÕES: Ainda persiste uma estrutura de causas de morte que pode estar indicando que, nas regiões estudadas, os progressos nos níveis de mortalidade não estão atingindo as populações menos favorecidas na intensidade e velocidade esperadas.<br>OBJECTIVE: To analyze differential changes of rates and stratification of mortality by gender and causes of death in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte (RMBH) and Salvador (RMS) between 1985 and 1995. METHODS: The Ministry of Health's Mortality Information System (SIM) provides data on death causes by age and sex that was used for this study. The groups of death causes were classified according to two major groups (preventable and non-preventable) and the decomposition method presented by Pollard was applied to analyze the contribution of each group of death causes in the changes in life expectation. RESULTS: There have been changes in the pace of the current mortality rate decline in RMBH and RMS, which have resulted in a reduction in the differences between the mortality rates in both areas. In both areas there was a substantial reduction in the mortality rates in the group of preventable causes, especially among women. CONCLUSIONS: There is still a structure of death causes, which seems to indicate that the improvement in mortality among the poor has been lower than it was expected

Morbidade referida e seus condicionantes em crianças de 5 a 9 anos em Sobral, CE, Brasil Reported morbidity and its conditionings in children 5 to 9 years old in Sobral, CE, Brazil

OBJETIVO: Descrever a morbidade referida em crianças de 5 a 9 anos e analisar seus possíveis condicionantes. METODOLOGIA: Corte de base populacional com amostra aleatória e representativa em crianças de 5 a 9 anos da zona urbana de Sobral - CE, Brasil. Entrevistas domiciliares com 3.276 crianças e exame clínico em 2.594. A morbidade referida foi classificada segundo a CID-10. O desfecho analisado foi morbidade referida nos últimos 15 dias, utilizando Stata 7.0. RESULTADOS: 43,9% das crianças apresentaram morbidade referida: Doenças do Aparelho Respiratório (DAR), 28,7%; doenças da pele, 3,4%; doenças infecciosas, 2,2%. Daquelas que adoeceram, 41,5% procuraram atendimento. Dessas, 77,4% em Unidades de Saúde Familiar. Apresentaram maiores chances de DAR as crianças com as seguintes características: residir no núcleo urbano principal do município, ter antecedente de desnutrição e frequentar escola, com um valor de ODDS Ratio, respectivamente de 1,48 (IC95%1,10-1,99), 1,30 (IC95%1,05-1,60) e 1,54 (IC95%1,02-2,32). DISCUSSÃO: Chamou a atenção a elevada prevalência de DAR em crianças do núcleo urbano principal, cerca de duas vezes maior que a observada em outros estudos de metodologia similar, levantando hipóteses de sobrerelato ou poluição ambiental. A maioria das crianças apresentou problemas de saúde de menor gravidade e teve acesso facilitado aos serviços de saúde, principalmente ao PSF. CONCLUSÕES: Serão necessários novos estudos para identificar possíveis causas da elevada prevalência de DAR em crianças do núcleo urbano principal do município. As ocasiões em que as crianças demandam os serviços de saúde da família por doenças de baixa gravidade podem ser aproveitadas para medidas de prevenção e promoção da saúde.<br>INTRODUCTION: This study was based on a random sample of 3,276 children aged between 5 and 9 years from the urban region of Sobral - CE, Brazil. OBJECTIVE: The main goal was to describe reported morbidity in children aged between 5 to 9 years and to analyze their conditionings. METHODOLOGY: Home interviews were carried out with 3,276 children and clinical exams were conducted in a sub-sample of 2,594. Health problems reported by mothers were classified according to the tenth revision of the International Disease Classification. Analyses were performed using Stata 7.0. Outcomes analyzed were reported morbidity in the past 15 days. The independent variables were grouped into socioeconomic, environmental, health service access, and nutritional status. RESULTS: The most prevalent morbidities were diseases of the respiratory system (DRS), 28.7%; diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, 3.4%; infectious and parasitic diseases, 2.2%. The independent variables that had statistically significant correlations with the prevalence of DRS were related to the children who lived in the main urban center, had a history of malnutrition, and low school attendance, with odds ratio of respectively, 1.48 (1.10-1.9995%CI), 1.30 (1.05-1.6095%CI), 1.54 (1.02-2.3295%CI). DISCUSSION: A high prevalence of DRS was observed in children in the main urban center. DRS prevalence was about twice higher than that observed in other studies with similar methodology. This observation has raised the hypotheses of over reporting or environmental pollution. Most children had minor health problems. They also had facilitated access to health services, especially to the FHP