Buffering volatility : storage investments and technology-specific renewable energy support

Mitigating climate change will require integrating large amounts of highly intermittent renewable energy (RE) sources in future electricity markets. Considerable uncertainties exist about the cost and availability of future large-scale storage to alleviate the potential mismatch between demand and supply. This paper examines the suitability of regulatory (public policy) mechanisms for coping with the volatility induced by intermittent RE sources, using a numerical equilibrium model of a future wholesale electricity market. We find that the optimal RE subsidies are technology-specific reflecting the heterogeneous value for system integration. Differentiated RE subsidies reduce the curtailment of excess production, thereby preventing costly investments in energy storage. Using a simple cost-benefit framework, we show that a smart design of RE support policies significantly reduces the level of optimal storage. We further find that the marginal benefits of storage rapidly decrease for short-term (intra-day) storage and are small for long-term (seasonal) storage independent of the storage level. This suggests that storage is not likely to be the limiting factor for decarbonizing the electricity sector

Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data

This paper investigates the impact of the European Unionâ??s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) at a firm level. Using panel data on the emissions and performance of more than 2000 European firms from 2005 to 2008, we are able to analyse the effectiveness of the scheme. The results suggest that the shift from the first phase (2005-2007) to the second phase (2008-2012) had an impact on the emission reductions carried out by firms. The initial allocation also had a significant impact on emission reduction. This challenges the relevance for the ETS of Coaseâ??s theorem (Coase, 1969), according to which the initial allocation of permits is irrelevant for the post-trading allocation of marketable pollution permits. Finally, we found that the EU ETS had a modest impact on the participating companiesâ?? performance. We conclude that a full auctioning system could help to reduce emissions but could also have a negative impact on the profits of participating companies.

Stationarity Changes in Long-Run Fossil Resource Prices: Evidence from Persistence Break Testing

This paper considers the question of whether changes in persistence have occurred during the long-run evolution of U.S. prices of the non-renewable energy resources crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. Our main contribution is to allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence, thus disentangling the effect of a deterministic break from that of a stochastic break and advancing the existing literature on the persistence properties of non-renewable resource prices. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of specifying a structural break when testing for breaks in persistence, whereas our findings are robust to the exact date of the structural break. Our analysis yields that coal and natural gas prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution, while oil prices exhibit a break in persistence during the 1970s. The findings suggest that especially the coal market has remained fundamentals-driven, whereas for the oil market exogenous shocks have become dominant. Thus, our results are consequential for the treatment of energy resource prices in both causal analysis and forecasting.non-renewable resource prices, primary energy, persistence, structural breaks

Assessing the impact of the EU ETS using firm level data.

· This paper investigates the impact of the European Union’s Emission Trading System (EU ETS) at a firm level. Using panel data on the emissions and performance of more than 2000 European firms from 2005 to 2008, we are able to analyse the effectiveness of the scheme. · The results suggest that the shift from the first phase (2005-2007) to the second phase (2008-2012) had an impact on the emission reductions carried out by firms. The initial allocation also had a significant impact on emission reduction. This challenges the relevance for the ETS of Coase’s theorem (Coase, 1969), according to which the initial allocation of permits is irrelevant for the post-trading allocation of marketable pollution permits. · Finally, we found that the EU ETS had a modest impact on the participating companies’ performance. We conclude that a full auctioning system could help to reduce emissions but could also have a negative impact on the profits of participating companies.panel data, energy, climate change, evaluation econometrics, firm behaviour.

Investments in a combined energy network model: substitution between natural gas and electricity?

Natural gas plays an important role in the future development of electricity markets as it is the least emission intensive fossil generation option while additionally providing the needed flexibility in plant operation to deal with intermittent renewable generation. As both the electricity and the natural gas market rely on networks, congestion on one market may lead to changes on another. In addition, investments in one market have an impact in the other and may even become substitutes for one another. The objective of this paper is to develop a dynamic model representation of coupled natural gas and electricity network markets to test the potential interaction with respect to investments. The model is tested under simplified conditions as well as for a stylized European network setting. The results indicate that there is a potential for investment-substitution and significant market interactions that warrants the application of coupled models especially with regard to simulations of long term system developments

Transport under Emission Trading: A Computable General Equilibrium Assessment

This thesis analysis the impact of private road transport under emission trading using two different Computable General Equilibrium models. A static multi-region model with special emphasis on the European Union, addresses the welfare impact of road transport under the European Emission Trading System. Including terms-of-trade effects, this model does not account for congestion which is the main externality of road transport. Furthermore, technological details of electricity generation which are an important factor in evaluating climate policies are not included. Therefore, the second model is a static Small Open Economy model of the German economy including congestion effects and detailed technological characteristics of electricity generation. The results of both models highlight the important role of already existing taxes on transport fuels for the evaluation of carbon mitigation measures in road transportation

A smart design of new EU emissions trading could save 61 per cent of mitigation costs

Carbon pricing is a key instrument for achieving Europe’s ambitious climate targets. It is therefore not surprising that reform of the EU carbon market is at the heart of the measures proposed by the European Commission (EC). One important policy innovation would be the introduction of a second emissions trading system in Europe that integrates other sectors like buildings and road transport. This addresses some of the inefficiencies of the existing, fragmented EU carbon markets, but at the same time requires a policy decision with potentially large implications in terms of economic costs to achieve European climate goals: How should the EU carbon budget be divided between two separate carbon markets? Achieving the EU climate target of 55 per cent causes a decrease in the aggregate consumption level of the EU-27 countries of 2.8 per cent or 248.9 billion euros in 2030 under current EU climate policy (without considering possible benefits from avoided climate change damages). A new emissions trading system reduces these costs by 21.5 per cent under the current allocation of the EU climate budget and by 33.0 per cent under the allocation proposed by the European Commission. Larger cost reductions of up to 61.6 per cent are possible if an even larger emissions budget is allocated to the buildings and transport sectors. Given the difficulties to politically determine the allocation of the EU climate budget, market-based flexibility mechanisms are desirable in order to achieve climate targets at the lowest economic cost

The impact of carbon prices on renewable energy support

This paper examines how optimal renewable energy (RE) support (RES) policies need to be adjusted to account for carbon prices. We show theoretically and empirically that changing carbon prices requires adjusting RE production subsidies due to two different motives: First, RE premiums need to be reduced to reflect the carbon value embedded in the market price. Second, RE premiums and feed-in tariffs need to be adjusted once a fuel switch away from coal towards gas power occurs. This adjustment is necessary to account for changes in the marginal external benefit of RE. For the case of the UK, we estimate the optimal RE subsidies and their adjustments due to a fuel switch. Furthermore, we use numerical simulations to analyze the impact of varying carbon prices on optimal RES. We show that the necessary adjustment due to a fuel switch is empirically rather small, whereas RE premiums must be phased out with increasing carbon prices due to the increasing reflection of the carbon cost in the electricity market price. Finally, a fuel switch increases solar-induced abatement, whereas it wind-induced abatement is rather invariant to a fuel switch. Yet, the differentiation of RE subsidies between wind and solar power is modest

The Interaction of Emissions Trading and Renewable Energy Promotion

Given the ambitious goal of the European Union to achieve CO2 emission reduction, support to renewable energies, and increased energy efficiency a portfolio of different policies is going to be implemented or is already in place in the member states. These instruments have at least partly overlapping objectives; thus, a high degree of interaction is to be expected. In this paper we analyze how the EU ETS and renewable support mechanisms influence one another. We apply a static open economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Germany incorporating different conventional and renewable generation technologies. We find that in case of an ETS with a green certificate trading scheme or a feed-in system the price for carbon drops to zero due to the high share of CO2-neutral renewable generation. Furthermore, the welfare reducing effect of an additional renewable support mechanism is rather low for both schemes