Automated ice-core layer-counting with strong univariate signals

We present an automated process for determining the annual layer chronology of an ice-core with a strong annual signal, utilising the hydrogen peroxide record from an Antarctic Peninsula ice-core as a test signal on which to count annual cycles and explain the methods. The signal is de-trended and normalised before being split into sections with a deterministic cycle count and those that need more attention. Possible reconstructions for the uncertain sections are determined which could be used as a visual aid for manual counting, and a simple method for assigning probability measures to each reconstruction is discussed. The robustness of this process is explored by applying it to versions of two different chemistry signals from the same stretch of the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) ice-core, which shows more variation in annual layer thickness, with and without thinning to mimic poorer quality data. An adapted version of these methods is applied to the more challenging non-sea-salt sulphur signal from the same Antarctic Peninsula core from which the hydrogen peroxide signal was taken. These methods could readily be adapted for use on much longer datasets, thereby reducing manual effort and providing a robust automated layer-counting methodology

Caves demonstrate decrease in rainfall recharge of southwest Australian groundwater is unprecedented for the last 800 years

Billions of people worldwide rely on groundwater. As rainfall in many regions in the future is projected to decrease, it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge. The groundwater recharge response to a sustained decrease in rainfall across southwest Australia that began in the late 1960s was examined in seven modern speleothems and drip waters from four caves. These show a pronounced increase or uptick in regional drip water and speleothem oxygen isotopic composition (δ¹⁸O) that is not driven by a change in rainfall δ¹⁸O values, but is in response to the shallow karst aquifers becoming disconnected from rainfall recharge due to regional drying. Our findings imply that rainfall recharge to groundwater may no longer be reliably occurring in this region, which is highly dependent on groundwater resources. Examination of the longer speleothem record shows that this situation is unprecedented over the last 800 years.Stacey C. Priestley, Pauline C. Treble, Alan D. Griffiths, Andy Baker, Nerilie J. Abram, Karina T. Meredit

El Niño Southern Oscillation signal in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South

Abstract. Paleoclimate archives, such as high-resolution ice core records, provide a means to investigate long-term (multi-centennial) climate variability. Until recently, the Law Dome (Dome Summit South) ice core record remained one of few long-term high-resolution records in East Antarctica. A new ice core drilled in 2017/2018 at Mount Brown South, approximately 1000 km west of Law Dome, provides an additional high-resolution record that will likely span the last millennium in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. Here, we compare snowfall accumulation rates and sea salt concentrations in the upper portion (~21 m) of the Mount Brown South record, and an updated Law Dome record over the period 1975–2016. Annual sea salt concentrations from the Mount Brown South record preserves a stronger signal for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO; in austral winter and spring, r = 0.521, p r = −0.387, p = 0.018, Niño 3.4). The Mount Brown South and Law Dome ice cores record inverse signals for the ENSO, suggesting the occurrence of distinct moisture and aerosol intrusions. We suggest that ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive atmospheric teleconnections in the southern mid-latitudes. These anomalies are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of regional westerly winds to the north of Mount Brown South that corresponds to years of low (high) sea salt deposition at Mount Brown South during La Niña (El Niño) events. The Mount Brown South annual sea salt record when complete will offer a new proxy record for reconstructions of the ENSO over the recent millennium, along with improved understanding of regional atmospheric variability in the southern Indian Ocean in addition to that derived from Law Dome

Back to the future : using long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions to improve model projections of Antarctic climate

Quantitative estimates of future Antarctic climate change are derived from numerical global climate models. Evaluation of the reliability of climate model projections involves many lines of evidence on past performance combined with knowledge of the processes that need to be represented. Routine model evaluation is mainly based on the modern observational period, which started with the establishment of a network of Antarctic weather stations in 1957/58. This period is too short to evaluate many fundamental aspects of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system, such as decadal-to-century time-scale climate variability and trends. To help address this gap, we present a new evaluation of potential ways in which long-term observational and paleo-proxy reconstructions may be used, with a particular focus on improving projections. A wide range of data sources and time periods is included, ranging from ship observations of the early 20th century to ice core records spanning hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years to sediment records dating back 34 million years. We conclude that paleo-proxy records and long-term observational datasets are an underused resource in terms of strategies for improving Antarctic climate projections for the 21st century and beyond. We identify priorities and suggest next steps to addressing this

Data descriptor: a global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high-and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python. (TABLE) Since the pioneering work of D'Arrigo and Jacoby1-3, as well as Mann et al. 4,5, temperature reconstructions of the Common Era have become a key component of climate assessments6-9. Such reconstructions depend strongly on the composition of the underlying network of climate proxies10, and it is therefore critical for the climate community to have access to a community-vetted, quality-controlled database of temperature-sensitive records stored in a self-describing format. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) 2k consortium, a self-organized, international group of experts, recently assembled such a database, and used it to reconstruct surface temperature over continental-scale regions11 (hereafter, ` PAGES2k-2013'). This data descriptor presents version 2.0.0 of the PAGES2k proxy temperature database (Data Citation 1). It augments the PAGES2k-2013 collection of terrestrial records with marine records assembled by the Ocean2k working group at centennial12 and annual13 time scales. In addition to these previously published data compilations, this version includes substantially more records, extensive new metadata, and validation. Furthermore, the selection criteria for records included in this version are applied more uniformly and transparently across regions, resulting in a more cohesive data product. This data descriptor describes the contents of the database, the criteria for inclusion, and quantifies the relation of each record with instrumental temperature. In addition, the paleotemperature time series are summarized as composites to highlight the most salient decadal-to centennial-scale behaviour of the dataset and check mutual consistency between paleoclimate archives. We provide extensive Matlab code to probe the database-processing, filtering and aggregating it in various ways to investigate temperature variability over the Common Era. The unique approach to data stewardship and code-sharing employed here is designed to enable an unprecedented scale of investigation of the temperature history of the Common Era, by the scientific community and citizen-scientists alike

Variability of sea-ice in the northern Weddell Sea during the 20th century

The record of winter fast-ice in the South Orkney Islands, northern Weddell Sea, Antarctica is over a century long and provides the longest observational record of sea-ice variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present analyses of the series of fast-ice formation and breakout dates from 1903 to 2008. We show that over the satellite era (post 1979) the timing of both final autumn formation and complete spring breakout of fast-ice is representative of the regional sea-ice concentrations (SIC) in the northern Weddell Sea, and associated with atmospheric conditions in the Amundsen Sea region to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Variation in the fast-ice breakout date is influenced by the intensity of the westerly/north-westerly winds associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). In contrast, the date of ice formation displays correlations with regional oceanic and sea-ice conditions over the previous 18 months, which indicate a preconditioning during the previous summer and winter, and exhibits variability associated with variation in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (i.e. the El Niño-Sothern Oscillation, ENSO). A reduction in fast-ice duration at the South Orkney Islands around the 1950s was associated with both later formation and earlier breakout. However, there were marked changes in variability (with periodicities of 3-5 year, 7-9 year and 20 year) in each of the series and in their relationships with ENSO and SAM, indicating the need for caution in interpreting changes in ice conditions based on shorter-term satellite series

Reversible interconversion of carbon dioxide and formate by an electroactive enzyme

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a kinetically and thermodynamically stable molecule. It is easily formed by the oxidation of organic molecules, during combustion or respiration, but is difficult to reduce. The production of reduced carbon compounds from CO2 is an attractive proposition, because carbon-neutral energy sources could be used to generate fuel resources and sequester CO2 from the atmosphere. However, available methods for the electrochemical reduction of CO2 require excessive overpotentials (are energetically wasteful) and produce mixtures of products. Here, we show that a tungsten-containing formate dehydrogenase enzyme (FDH1) adsorbed to an electrode surface catalyzes the efficient electrochemical reduction of CO2 to formate. Electrocatalysis by FDH1 is thermodynamically reversible-only small overpotentials are required, and the point of zero net catalytic current defines the reduction potential. It occurs under thoroughly mild conditions, and formate is the only product. Both as a homogeneous catalyst and on the electrode, FDH1 catalyzes CO2 reduction with a rate more than two orders of magnitude faster than that of any known catalyst for the same reaction. Formate oxidation is more than five times faster than CO2 reduction. Thermodynamically, formate and hydrogen are oxidized at similar potentials, so formate is a viable energy source in its own right as well as an industrially important feedstock and a stable intermediate in the conversion of CO2 to methanol and methane. FDH1 demonstrates the feasibility of interconverting CO2 and formate electrochemically, and it is a template for the development of robust synthetic catalysts suitable for practical applications

The preservation of methanesulphonic acid in frozen ice-core samples

Ice-core records of methanesulphonic acid (MSA) provide a potentially powerful tool for producing proxy records of sea ice, a critical but poorly understood component of the Earth's climate system. However, MSA is able to diffuse through solid ice, and here we examine the effect of two different methods of frozen storage on the preservation of MSA in archived ice-core samples. Re-analysis of archived ice sticks confirms that MSA diffuses out of ice cores archived in this manner. Despite MSA losses of up to 39% after 7 years storage, the ice sticks studied here preserve much of the variability of the original MSA record, suggesting that useful proxy records can be obtained from archived ice sticks. Furthermore, re-analysis of ice-core samples that had been refrozen into discrete bottled samples for storage demonstrates that it is possible to archive ice samples in a way that prevents MSA loss. In this case, accurate records of MSA variability and concentration were preserved even over storage periods of 15 years. This has important implications for the storage of ice cores and subsequent determination of MSA, and demonstrates that ice storage history needs to be considered when interpreting MSA records