A Limited Information Bayesian Forecasting Model of the Cattle SubSector

The first step towards forecasting the price and output of the cattle industry is understanding the dynamics of the livestock production process. This study follows up on the Weimar and Stillman (1990) paper by using data from 1970 to 2005 to estimate the parameters that characterizes the cattle output supply. The model is then used to estimate forecast values for the periods 2006 and 2007. Bayesian limited information likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters when endogeneity exists between these variables. The forecasting ability of the model for a two-step ahead forecast for majority of the variables are relatively good and test statistic of the forecast are reported.Cattle, Bayesian, forecasting, Inventory, Slaughter, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Value of Single Source and Backgrounded Cattle as Measured by Health and Feedlot Profitability

Commingling cattle in the feedlot increases the odds of cattle getting sick. However, backgrounded cattle are less susceptible to diseases which allow the generalizing statements like "backgrounding is just like single source". Using data from over 15,000 cattle fed in 12 Iowa feedlots, we show that although backgrounded cattle do better than preconditioned cattle commingled in the feedlot, they have poorer carcass quality, health, and performance than single source cattle. Backgrounded cattle should be discounted $8.24/head relative to single source, and only received a small premium over multi-source preconditioned cattle though not significantly different.Livestock Production/Industries,

Effect of Qualification and Experience of Biology Teachers on the Status of Ecology Teaching in Kwara State

This study examined the effect of qualification and experience of Biology teachers on the status of ecology teaching in Kwara State.  This study sample included one hundred and forty two (142) Secondary Schools selected by random sampling technique. The researcher designed teachers’ questionnaire which were administered to four hundred and fifty (450) teachers selected from eight (8) Local Government Areas of Kwara State.  Researcher-designed validated questionnaire was used to elicit information from the respondents on the status of ecology teaching. Three research questions and two hypotheses were formulated.  Frequency counts and chi- square statistics were used to analysis the data collected. Finding of this study revealed that 68% of Biology teachers agreed with the contents while 32% disagreed. However both qualified and unqualified teachers had viewed ecology teaching the same way that is ecology teaching was not properly done due to the fact that some Biology teachers skip certain areas of the syllabus that they find difficult to teach.  Similarly, experienced and less experienced teachers had the same views about ecology teaching in Kwara State.  Based on the findings, the following recommendations were made: fieldwork and practicals on Ecology should be carried out satisfactory in the schools, teachers should be sponsored to seminars and workshops specifically on Ecology teaching

Model uncertainty in characterizing recreation demand

A Bayesian variable selection procedure is used to control for uncertainty in the specification of a recreational demand model. Specifically, we propose a model that draws on the Bayesian paradigm to integrate the variable selection process into the model and reflect the accompanying uncertainty about which is the best specification used for counterfactual predictions. The advantage of this procedure over previous non-Bayesian approaches is that overcomes the problem of pre-testing in specification searches

Knowledge, Attitude and Practice of Mothers to Childhood Immunization in Kosofe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria

This study was carried out to determine the knowledge, attitude and practice of mothers in Kosofe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria, on childhood immunization. Descriptive cross sectional study method was employed. A multistage sampling was used to select two hundred mothers who participated in the study. Data was collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Mothers who were still in their reproductive age and whose children are under the age of 5 years were interviewed after they had been duly briefed about the study and informed consent was obtained. Results showed that awareness on various childhood immunizations was quite high in majority of the respondents. Out of the mothers interviewed, 89.5%, 85.5%, 78.5%, 71.0%, 73.5%, 42.0% and 6.5% of them knew about Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG), oral polio, dipthteria, pertusis and tetanus (DPT), yellow fever, measles, hepatitis B virus (HBV), and meningococcal vaccinations respectively. However, not more than 54.5% of these respondents actually knew the diseases that these vaccinations prevent in their children even though almost all (95.5%) of them perceived immunization to be beneficial and showed good attitude. Although majority of the mothers demonstrated appreciable knowledge, attitude and practice on childhood immunization, more awareness programmes in developing countries are required.Keywords: Knowledge, Attitude, Practice, Childhood immunization

Hypercholesterolaemia in pregnancy as a predictor of adverse pregnancy outcome

Background: Prevention of viable spontaneous preterm birth and low birth weight through screening is one of the key aims of antenatal care as these have implications for the child, mother and society. If women can be identified to be at high risk of these adverse birth outcomes in early pregnancy, they can be targeted for more intensive antenatal surveillance and prophylactic interventions.Objectives: This study is therefore aimed to determine the association between elevated maternal serum cholesterol level in pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcome.Methods: It was a prospective observational cohort study in which eligible participants were enrolled at gestational age of 14 to 20 weeks. Blood samples were obtained to measure total serum cholesterol concentrations and the sera were then analyzed enzymatically by the cholesterol oxidase: p-aminophenazone (CHOD PAP) method. Pregnancy outcomes were obtained by extraction from medical records and the labour ward register.Results: The incidences of the two adverse pregnancy outcomes examined in the study (preterm births and low birth weight (LBW) in term neonates) were 8.0% and 14.4% respectively. Preterm birth was 6.89-times more common in mothers with high cholesterol than in control mothers with normal total cholesterol level (38.5% versus 5.4%, P=0.029) while LBW was 7.99-times more common in mothers with high total maternal cholesterol than in mothers with normal cholesterol (87.5% versus 10.5%, P=0.019).Conclusion: We can infer that the high maternal serum cholesterol hypercholesterolaemia) is associated with preterm delivery/ low birth weight (LBW) in term infants. However, further validation of these findings with more robust prospective and longitudinal characterization of maternal serum cholesterol profiles is required in subsequent investigations.Keywords: Adverse birth outcome, cholesterol, hypercholesterolaemia, LBW, preterm birth

Controlling for observed and unobserved site characteristics in RUM models of recreation demand

Random Utility Maximization (RUM) models of recreation demand are typically plagued by limited information on environmental and other attributes characterizing the available sites in the choice set. To the extent that these unobserved site attributes are correlated with the observed characteristics and/or the key travel cost variable, the resulting parameter estimates and subsequent welfare calculations are likely to be biased. In this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to estimating a RUM model that incorporates a full set of alternative specific constants, insulating the key travel cost parameter from the influence of the unobserved site attributes. In contrast to estimation procedures recently outlined in Murdock (2006), the posterior simulator we propose (combining data augmentation and Gibbs sampling techniques) can be used in the more general mixed logit framework in which some parameters of the conditional utility function are random. Following a series of generated data experiments to illustrate the performance of the simulator, we apply the estimation procedures to data from the Iowa Lakes Project. In contrast to an earlier study using the same data (Egan et al. [7]), we find that, with the addition of a full set of alternative specific constants, water quality attributes no longer appear to influence the choice of where to recreate

The Potential of Bioethanol as a Viable Alternative to Fossil Fuels

Environmental challenges from fossil fuel emission have global issues and have contributed immensely to climate change. Bioethanol has experienced unprecedented level of attention due to its value as substitute to fossil fuel. Besides being a renewable and sustainable source of energy, it is also efficient, available and environmentally friendly. Global production of bioethanol continues to increase and will probably continue to dominate the alternative fuels market in the next decade. It is important to emphasize that for bioethanol to be a viable alternative, it must have ecological benefits, be economically competitive and its production must be in commercial scales without affecting the food production. This paper explains the problems and possible solutions in the production of bioethanol; since biofuel produces clean energy which can reduce the emission of CO2 into the atmosphere

A CORRELATIONAL STUDY ON SELF-ESTEEM AND SELF-HARM BEHAVIOR AMONG UNDREGRADUATES IN KWARA STATE, Nigeria

Self as become a Para- suicidal act among undergraduates in Nigeria Universities. Despite the enormous efforts of the government and the other educational stakeholders to eradicate this scourge, this challenge skyrockets day in and out. In order to proffer solution to this problem in a subjective manner, this study aimed at viewing self-esteem as a predictor of self-harm behaviour among undergraduates in Kwara State. Descriptive survey of correlational type was adopted for this research. Multistage random sampling technique was used to select 382 undergraduates from public and private universities in Kwara State. Two research instruments were used for data collection. They are Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) and Non-Suicidal Self-Injury Assessment Tool (NSSI-AT). Research questions were raised; main and operational hypotheses were formulated to guide this study. Descriptive statistics of frequency counts mean and percentages were used to answer the research questions while inferential statistics of Pearson Product Moment Correlation was used to test the generated research hypotheses at 0.05 level of significance. Results showed that there was significant relationship between self-esteem and self-harm behaviour among undergraduates in Kwara State (calculated r-value of 0. 657 critical value of .000).there was relative contributions of the dependent variables on self halm behaviour. Based on the findings, it was recommended that Government as well as other educational stakeholders should work harmoniously and supportive in boosting undergraduates self-esteem.               KEYWORDS: self-esteem, self –harm, behaviour, undergraduates