SIMULATING OZONE EFFECTS ON FOREST PRODUCTIVITY: INTERACTIONS AMONG LEAF‐, CANOPY‐, AND STAND‐LEVEL PROCESSES

Ozone pollution in the lower atmosphere is known to have adverse effects on forest vegetation, but the degree to which mature forests are impacted has been very difficult to assess directly. In this study, we combined leaf‐level ozone response data from independent ozone fumigation studies with a forest ecosystem model in order simulate the effects of ambient ozone on mature hardwood forests. Reductions in leaf carbon gain were determined as a linear function of ozone flux to the leaf interior, calculated as the product of ozone concentration and leaf stomatal conductance. This relationship was applied to individual canopy layers within the model in order to allow interaction with stand‐ and canopy‐level factors such as light attenuation, leaf morphology, soil water limitations, and vertical ozone gradients. The resulting model was applied to 64 locations across the northeastern United States using ambient ozone data from 1987 to 1992. Predicted declines in annual net primary production ranged from 3 to 16% with greatest reductions in southern portions of the region where ozone levels were highest, and on soils with high water‐holding capacity where drought stress was absent. Reductions in predicted wood growth were slightly greater (3–22%) because wood is a lower carbon allocation priority in the model than leaf and root growth. Interannual variation in predicted ozone effects was small due to concurrent fluctuations in ozone and climate. Periods of high ozone often coincided with hot, dry weather conditions, causing reduced stomatal conductance and ozone uptake. Within‐canopy ozone concentration gradients had little effect on predicted growth reductions because concentrations remained high through upper canopy layers where net carbon assimilation and ozone uptake were greatest. Sensitivity analyses indicate a trade‐off between model sensitivity to available soil water and foliar nitrogen and demonstrate uncertainties regarding several assumptions used in the model. Uncertainties surrounding ozone effects on stomatal function and plant water use efficiency were found to have important implications on current predictions. Field measurements of ozone effects on mature forests will be needed before the accuracy of model predictions can be fully assessed

Detecting and predicting spatial and interannual patterns of temperate forest springtime phenology in the eastern U.S.

We performed a diagnostic analysis of AVHRR-NDVI and gridded, temperature data for the deciduous forests of the eastern U.S., calibrating temperature accumulation model with satellite data for 1982–1993. The model predicts interannual variability in onset date based upon year-to-year changes in springtime temperature. RMS error over the period ranges from 6.9 days in the northern portion of the domain to 10.7 days in the south. The analysis revealed a relationship between temperature accumulation and satellite derived onset date (rank correlation = 0.31–0.62). The required temperature accumulation threshold can be expressed as a function of mean temperature (R2 of 0.90) to facilitate predictive analysis of phenological onset, or when remote sensing data are unavailable

Fish vertical distribution and marine mammal co-occurrence off Cape Hatteras, NC

Mesopelagic (mid-water) fish are important components of toothed whale (Odontocete) diets. Few studies have simultaneous measurements of predator occurrence and potential prey density distributions over long durations. Echoshounder and hydrophone measurements were used to characterize vertical distributions of potential prey and relative abundance of 7 marine mammal groups in the water column off Cape Hatteras, NC. Co-occurrence of the two groups was used as an index of predator-prey interaction. There were fewer than expected (2/7 daily resolution; 1/7 6-hourly resolution) significant correlations between the number of marine mammal occurrences and the potential prey field density. There were no significant distributional correlations when there were significant density correlations. At both resolutions, Cuvier’s and Gervais’ beaked whales and Sperm whales were correlated with salinity and/or water temperature. Further research is necessary to determine whether metrics of prey field density influence the occurrence and potential foraging of Odontocete marine mammals

The tension between fire risk and carbon storage: evaluating U.S. carbon and fire management strategies through ecosystem models

Fire risk and carbon storage are related environmental issues because fire reduction results in carbon storage through the buildup of woody vegetation, and stored carbon is a fuel for fires. The sustainability of the U.S. carbon sink and the extent of fire activity in the next 100 yr depend in part on the type and effectiveness of fire reduction employed. Previous studies have bracketed the range of dynamics from continued fire reduction to the complete failure of fire reduction activities. To improve these estimates, it is necessary to explicitly account for fire reduction in terrestrial models. A new fire reduction submodel that estimates the spatiotemporal pattern of reduction across the United States was developed using gridded data on biomass, climate, land-use, population, and economic factors. To the authors’ knowledge, it is the first large-scale, gridded fire model that explicitly accounts for fire reduction. The model was calibrated to 1° × 1° burned area statistics [Global Burnt Area 2000 Project (GBA-2000)] and compared favorably to three important diagnostics. The model was then implemented in a spatially explicit ecosystem model and used to analyze 1620 scenarios of future fire risk and fire reduction strategies. Under scenarios of climate change and urbanization, burned area and carbon emissions both increased in scenarios where fire reduction efforts were not adjusted to match new patterns of fire risk. Fuel reducing management strategies reduced burned area and fire risk, but also limited carbon storage. These results suggest that to promote carbon storage and minimize fire risk in the future, fire reduction efforts will need to be increased and spatially adjusted and will need to employ a mixture of fuel-reducing and non-fuel-reducing strategies

Modeling physical and chemical climate of the northeastern United States for a geographic information system

A model of physical and chemical climate was developed for New York and New England that can be used in a GIs for integration with ecosystem models. The variables included are monthly average maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation, as well as annual atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. Equations generated from regional data bases were combined with a digital elevation model of the region to generate digital coverages of each variable

High spectral resolution remote sensing of canopy chemistry

Near infrared laboratory spectra have been used for many years to determine nitrogen and lignin concentrations in plant materials. In recent years, similar high spectral resolution visible and infrared data have been available via airborne remote sensing instruments. Using data from NASA's Airborne visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) we attempt to identify spectral regions correlated with foliar chemistry at the canopy level in temperate forests