Why bayesian “evidence for H1” in one condition and bayesian “evidence for H0” in another condition does not mean good-enough bayesian evidence for a difference between the conditions

Psychologists are often interested in whether an independent variable has a different effect in condition A than in condition B. To test such a question, one needs to directly compare the effect of that variable in the two conditions (i.e., test the interaction). Yet many researchers tend to stop when they find a significant test in one condition and a nonsignificant test in the other condition, deeming this as sufficient evidence for a difference between the two conditions. In this Tutorial, we aim to raise awareness of this inferential mistake when Bayes factors are used with conventional cutoffs to draw conclusions. For instance, some researchers might falsely conclude that there must be good-enough evidence for the interaction if they find good-enough Bayesian evidence for the alternative hypothesis, H1, in condition A and good-enough Bayesian evidence for the null hypothesis, H0, in condition B. The case study we introduce highlights that ignoring the test of the interaction can lead to unjustified conclusions and demonstrates that the principle that any assertion about the existence of an interaction necessitates the direct comparison of the conditions is as true for Bayesian as it is for frequentist statistics. We provide an R script of the analyses of the case study and a Shiny app that can be used with a 2 × 2 design to develop intuitions on this issue, and we introduce a rule of thumb with which one can estimate the sample size one might need to have a well-powered design

Shock temperature measurements in metals: New results for an Fe alloy

The temperature of a Fe-Cr-Ni alloy (304 stainless steel) has been measured during shock compression using a high-speed radiometric technique. Experiments were performed on high-quality thick films deposited on sapphire and LiF windows. The samples had no observable porosity or defects and closely meet the ideal criteria for shock temperature measurements. Data obtained with both Al_2O_3 and LiF windows are internally consistent, indicating that they remain transparent to high pressures and are thus suitable windows for shock temperature measurements. Our data yield stainless steel melting temperatures ranging from 4570±310K at 138 GPa to 5710±340 K at 215 GPa, and additionally provide bounds on the initial Hugoniot temperatures of the sample between 5600±340 K at 234 GPa (near the solidus) and 6580±440 K at 283 (in the liquid field). Taken together, these data define a smooth curve for melting of the alloy up to 271 GPa and 5860 K, which should represent a point on the Iiquidus. Melting along the Hugoniot begins at approximately 234 GPa and 5600 K, as compared with 242 GPa and 6400 K for pure Fe. At the pressure of the inner core-outer core boundary, the melting point of 304 stainless steel is lower than that of pure Fe by ≈ 1450 K, as compared with only 110 K at 1 atm. These results demonstrate that upon alloying with Ni and Cr the melting point depression of Fe and thus material likely to comprise the inner core increases with increasing pressure

Shock Temperature of Stainless Steel and a High Pressure - High Temperature Constraint on Thermal Diffusivity of Al_2O_3

Time dependent shock temperatures were measured for stainless steel (SS) films in contact with transparent anvils. The anvil/window material was the same as the driver material so that there would be symmetric heat flow from the sample. Inferred Hugoniot temperatures, T_h , of 5800–7500 K at 232–321 GPa are consistent with previous measurements in SS. Temperatures at the film‐anvil interface (T_i ), which are more directly measured than T_h , indicate that T_i did not decrease measurably during the approximately 250 ns that the shock wave was in Al_2O_3 or LiF anvils. Thus an upper bound is obtained for the thermal diffusivity of Al_2O_3 at the metal/anvil interface at 230 GPa and 6000K of κ≤0.00096 cm_2/s. This is a factor of 17 lower than previously calculated values, resulting in a decrease of the inferred T_h by 730 k. The observed shock temperatures are combined with temperatures calculated from measured Hugoniots and are used to calculate thermal conductivities of Al_2O_3. Also we note that since there was no measurable intensity decrease during the time when the shock wave propagated through the window, we infer from this that Al_2O_3 remained transparent while in the shocked state. Thus sapphire is a good window material to at least 250 GPa for shock temperature measurements for metals

The Interblink Interval in Normal and Dry Eye Subjects

Purpose: Our aim was to extend the concept of blink patterns from average interblink interval (IBI) to other aspects of the distribution of IBI. We hypothesized that this more comprehensive approach would better discriminate between normal and dry eye subjects. Methods: Blinks were captured over 10 minutes for ten normal and ten dry eye subjects while viewing a standardized televised documentary. Fifty-five blinks were analyzed for each of the 20 subjects. Means, standard deviations, and autocorrelation coefficients were calculated utilizing a single random effects model fit to all data points and a diagnostic model was subsequently fit to predict probability of a subject having dry eye based on these parameters. Results: Mean IBI was 5.97 seconds for normal versus 2.56 seconds for dry eye subjects (ratio: 2.33, P = 0.004). IBI variability was 1.56 times higher in normal subjects (P < 0.001), and the autocorrelation was 1.79 times higher in normal subjects (P = 0.044). With regard to the diagnostic power of these measures, mean IBI was the best dry eye versus normal classifier using receiver operating characteristics (0.85 area under curve (AUC)), followed by the standard deviation (0.75 AUC), and lastly, the autocorrelation (0.63 AUC). All three predictors combined had an AUC of 0.89. Based on this analysis, cutoffs of ≤3.05 seconds for median IBI, and ≤0.73 for the coefficient of variation were chosen to classify dry eye subjects. Conclusion: (1) IBI was significantly shorter for dry eye patients performing a visual task compared to normals; (2) there was a greater variability of interblink intervals in normal subjects; and (3) these parameters were useful as diagnostic predictors of dry eye disease. The results of this pilot study merit investigation of IBI parameters on a larger scale study in subjects with dry eye and other ocular surface disorders

Upgrading Marine Ecosystem Restoration Using Ecological-Social Concepts

Conservation and environmental management are principal countermeasures to the degradation of marine ecosystems and their services. However, in many cases, current practices are insufficient to reverse ecosystem declines. We suggest that restoration ecology, the science underlying the concepts and tools needed to restore ecosystems, must be recognized as an integral element for marine conservation and environmental management. Marine restoration ecology is a young scientific discipline, often with gaps between its application and the supporting science. Bridging these gaps is essential to using restoration as an effective management tool and reversing the decline of marine ecosystems and their services. Ecological restoration should address objectives that include improved ecosystem services, and it therefore should encompass social ecological elements rather than focusing solely on ecological parameters. We recommend using existing management frameworks to identify clear restoration targets, to apply quantitative tools for assessment, and to make the re-establishment of ecosystem services a criterion for success

The effects of central cholecystokinin receptor blockade on hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal and symptomatic responses to overnight withdrawal from alprazolam

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142739/1/Abelson-Nesse-alprazolam-BioPsych-1995.pd

Tourist choice processing: evaluating decision rules and methods of their measurement

A detailed understanding of decision rules is essential in order to better explain consumption behavior, yet the variety of decision rules used have been somewhat neglected in tourism research. This study adopts an innovative method, greedoid analysis, to estimate a noncompensatory type of decision rule known as lexicographic by aspect (LBA). It is quite different from the weighted additive (WADD) model commonly assumed in tourism studies. By utilizing an experimental research design, this study enables the evaluation of the two types of decision rules regarding their predictive and explanatory power. Additionally, we introduce a novel evaluation indicator (“cost”), which allows further investigation of the heterogeneity in the use of decision rules. The results suggest that although the out-of-sample accuracy is lower, the LBA model has a better explanatory performance on respondents’ preference order. Moreover, the different perspective provided by the LBA model is useful for obtaining managerial implications

Challenges for Restoration of Coastal Marine Ecosystems in the Anthropocene

Coastal marine ecosystems provide critical goods and services to humanity but many are experiencing rapid degradation. The need for effective restoration tools capable of promoting large-scale recovery of coastal ecosystems in the face of intensifying climatic stress has never been greater. We identify four major challenges for more effective implementation of coastal marine ecosystem restoration (MER): (1) development of effective, scalable restoration methods, (2) incorporation of innovative tools that promote climate adaptation, (3) integration of social and ecological restoration priorities, and (4) promotion of the perception and use of coastal MER as a scientifically credible management approach. Tackling these challenges should improve restoration success rates, heighten their recognition, and accelerate investment in and promotion of coastal MER. To reverse the accelerating decline of marine ecosystems, we discuss potential directions for meeting these challenges by applying coastal MER tools that are science-based and actionable. For coastal restoration to have a global impact, it must incorporate social science, technological and conceptual advances, and plan for future climate scenarios

Unexpected short- and medium-range atomic structure of sputtered amorphous silicon upon thermal annealing

We investigate the structure of magnetron-sputtered (MS) amorphous silicon(a-Si) prepared under standard deposition conditions and compare this to pure ion-implanted (II) a-Si. The structure of both films is characterized in their as-prepared and thermally annealed states. Significant differences are observed in short- and medium-range order following thermal annealing. Whereas II a-Si undergoes structural relaxation toward a continuous random network, MS a-Si exhibits little change. Cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy reveals the presence of nanopores in the MS film consistent with reduced mass-density. Therefore, the short- and medium-range order of annealed, MS a-Si is tentatively attributed to these pores

L-systems in Geometric Modeling

We show that parametric context-sensitive L-systems with affine geometry interpretation provide a succinct description of some of the most fundamental algorithms of geometric modeling of curves. Examples include the Lane-Riesenfeld algorithm for generating B-splines, the de Casteljau algorithm for generating Bezier curves, and their extensions to rational curves. Our results generalize the previously reported geometric-modeling applications of L-systems, which were limited to subdivision curves.Comment: In Proceedings DCFS 2010, arXiv:1008.127