Diversification and agrarian change under environmental constraints in rural China: Evidence from a poor township of Beijing municipality

Working paper du GATE 2007-11This article illustrates the impact of changes related to market reforms and environmental policies on the economic structure in rural China by providing a comparative analysis of several villages in a poor township in Beijing municipality. Two main concomitant phenomena are affecting agricultural and non-agricultural choices in the studied area. First, the introduction of market mechanisms is encouraging local population to engage in new activities that are closer to local comparative advantages. Second, rural households are facing new constraints in the form of environmental protection measures, which have weakened traditional insurance channels provided by forest resources and cattle stock. Drawing on household-level survey data and interviews with village heads conducted in ten villages of Labagoumen township in December 2003, this article analyzes households decisions in response to market reforms and environmental constraints. We find large disparities both between villages and households in the diversification process and discuss the reasons of observed inertia in the region, most households still heavily relying on corn production

The physiological responses of cacao to the environment and the implications for climate change resilience. A review

Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) is a tropical perennial crop which is of great economic importance to the confectionary industry and to the economies of many countries of the humid tropics where it is grown. Some recent studies have suggested climate change could severely impact cacao production in West Africa. It is essential to incorporate our understanding of the physiology and genetic variation within cacao germplasm when discussing the implications of climate change on cacao productivity and developing strategies for climate resilience in cacao production. Here we review the current research on the physiological responses of cacao to various climate factors. Our main findings are 1) water limitation causes significant yield reduction in cacao but genotypic variation in sensitivity is evident, 2) in the field cacao experiences higher temperatures than is often reported in the literature, 3) the complexity of the cacao/ shade tree interaction can lead to contradictory results, 4) elevated CO2 may alleviate some negative effects of climate change 5) implementation of mitigation strategies can help reduce environmental stress, 6) significant gaps in the research need addressing to accelerate the development of climate resilience. Harnessing the significant genetic variation apparent within cacao germplasm is essential to develop modern varieties capable of high yields in non-optimal conditions. Mitigation strategies will also be essential but to use shading to best effect shade tree selection is crucial to avoid resource competition. Cacao is often described as being sensitive to climate change but genetic variation, adaptive responses, appropriate mitigation strategies and interactive climate effects should all be considered when predicting the future of cacao production. Incorporating these physiological responses to various environmental conditions and developing a deeper understanding of the processes underlying these responses will help to accelerate the development of a more resource use efficient tree ensuring sustainable production into the future

Drivers of diversification and pluriactivity among smallholder farmers—evidence from Nigeria

Diversification and pluriactivity have become a norm among farm business owners (FBOs) due to persistent low farm income. This study applies the resource-based theory to examine drivers of diversification and livelihood income-oriented towards a sustainable livelihood. Our framework develops hypotheses about the impact of internal and external resources on livelihood choices at the household level. We use a survey of 480 rural Nigerian farmers (agripreneurs), applying a Multivariate Tobit to test our framework. We find that education plays the most significant role in all types of employment options. The more FBOs are educated, the more the likelihood that they will choose non-farm or wage employment. This study revealed that while the agriculture sector’s share of rural employment is declining, non-farm is on the increase. More so, there is a decline in farming among the young generation, marital status bias and gender influence in resource allocation. The socioeconomic (income and food security) and socio-cultural (employment and rural-urban migration) implications of rural sustainability linked to UN Development Goals have been highlighted and analysed in this article

The political economy of progressive fiscal contracts in Africa and Latin America

Motivation How can poorer developing countries escape from the vicious circle in which, because the state is fragile, those countries cannot raise sufficient public revenue to be able to finance development, leading to the persistence of poverty and state fragility? We explore a new approach to this problem, which we call progressive fiscal contracts, in which government earmarks the proceeds of particular taxes to be spent on forms of expenditure which will have widespread benefits for lower income groups, such as health, education and social protection. Taxpayers are thus offered a contractual relationship with government (better‐targeted delivery of public services in return for tax payments) in place of a coercive one (simply being ordered to pay taxes, with nothing being offered in exchange). We seek to examine whether this kind of contractual approach offers a way forward for developing countries. Purpose Across five countries (Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Ghana and Zambia) between 2000 and 2015, we seek to find out whether tax yields have improved following the introduction of progressive fiscal contracts, whether conflict and poverty have declined, and whether there have been countervailing costs in terms of reduced efficiency. We also examine the experience of two countries (Brazil and Chile) where there is no formal ear‐marking but government has encouraged the public to think of particular taxes as being associated with particular forms of expenditure. Approach and methods We assess the impact of changes in tax yields, welfare indicators and conflict indicators by means of panel‐data regressions, tabular comparisons and, in Bolivia, qualitative interviews. Changes in efficiency are assessed through examination of changes in tax structure. Findings Across all of the countries surveyed, the introduction of progressive fiscal contracts has been associated with a reduction in headcount poverty between 2000 and 2015, and in Bolivia our qualitative evidence suggests that the relationship can be seen as a causal one. In three cases out of five (Ghana, Bolivia and Ecuador) tax yields have increased, and in two (Ecuador and Bolivia) there was a significant reduction in political violence. In the Latin American cases examined, but not the African ones, there was a shift from royalty‐based taxation to income‐based taxation of natural resources, suggesting the likelihood of an improvement in efficiency over the period in those countries only. In these cases, the stereotypical view that progressive fiscal contracts improve equity at the expense of efficiency is contradicted. Policy implications (or conclusions) ‘Progressive fiscal contracts’, which originated as a device for making tax payments more palatable by offering social benefits in return, show promise as an innovative strategy for boosting tax ratios, reducing political violence and reducing poverty, which deserves further exploration

Twelve-month observational study of children with cancer in 41 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction Childhood cancer is a leading cause of death. It is unclear whether the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted childhood cancer mortality. In this study, we aimed to establish all-cause mortality rates for childhood cancers during the COVID-19 pandemic and determine the factors associated with mortality. Methods Prospective cohort study in 109 institutions in 41 countries. Inclusion criteria: children <18 years who were newly diagnosed with or undergoing active treatment for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, retinoblastoma, Wilms tumour, glioma, osteosarcoma, Ewing sarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, medulloblastoma and neuroblastoma. Of 2327 cases, 2118 patients were included in the study. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 30 days, 90 days and 12 months. Results All-cause mortality was 3.4% (n=71/2084) at 30-day follow-up, 5.7% (n=113/1969) at 90-day follow-up and 13.0% (n=206/1581) at 12-month follow-up. The median time from diagnosis to multidisciplinary team (MDT) plan was longest in low-income countries (7 days, IQR 3-11). Multivariable analysis revealed several factors associated with 12-month mortality, including low-income (OR 6.99 (95% CI 2.49 to 19.68); p<0.001), lower middle income (OR 3.32 (95% CI 1.96 to 5.61); p<0.001) and upper middle income (OR 3.49 (95% CI 2.02 to 6.03); p<0.001) country status and chemotherapy (OR 0.55 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.86); p=0.008) and immunotherapy (OR 0.27 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.91); p=0.035) within 30 days from MDT plan. Multivariable analysis revealed laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR 5.33 (95% CI 1.19 to 23.84); p=0.029) was associated with 30-day mortality. Conclusions Children with cancer are more likely to die within 30 days if infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, timely treatment reduced odds of death. This report provides crucial information to balance the benefits of providing anticancer therapy against the risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children with cancer