Assessing the Economic Impact of an Agricultural Export Shock on the Washington Economy: A Tale of Two Models

The results of an economic impact analysis with a regional input-output (IO) model are compared with results from a regional computable general equilibrium CGE) model. The I0 model embodies a number of restrictive assumptions. These assumptions are consistent with the long run equilibrium of the economy where there is no capacity constraint for production, fixed coefficients in production, and no price changes or due to Leontief technology, and fixed input prices. For all of these reasons input-output results are often viewed as over estimates of regional supply response given the lack of effective regional supply constraints. In this situation, regional CGE models serve as a better alternative because of their flexibility to mimic various technology and factor market condition characteristic of real world regional economies. In this study we summarize the results of an assumed export shock on Washington economy under an input-output model and under a regional CGE model. Further, we simulate our CGE model under various factor market constraints and behaviors. We show that contrary to the conventional wisdom, the positive secondary impacts of increasing agricultural exports are usually actually larger with a regional CGE model than estimates of secondary impacts of the same shock estimated with a regional IO model.The Washington CGE model, the Washington IO model, comparing estimated economic impacts with regional CGE and IO models.

The Economic Impact of a Possible Irrigation-Water Shortage in Odessa Sub-Basin of Adams and Lincoln Counties

The Columbia Basin Project (CBP) was one of the single largest projects undertaken by the Bureau of Reclamation. The venture, which started in the 1930s in Central Washington, did not entirely turn out as expected. In fact, almost half of the proposed irrigable area, located mainly in the north eastern portion of the original plan, doesn’t have any water supply from the project for irrigation purposes. The Odessa Sub-area is one of those areas. The land in this area is fertile and produces very high quality potatoes. Over the last couple of decades, production in this Odessa sub-region has been possible primarily because of irrigation based on deep wells. However, the underground water is drawing down and crop production may shut down as a result. Therefore, an economic threat on the economy of the Columbia Basin is in the offing, unless alternative water sources are negotiated. In this paper, we will mainly explore the regional economic impacts of the possible production losses of crops produced in the Odessa Sub-area of Lincoln and Adams Counties. In Section A, we briefly discuss the current status of the Columbia Basin Project. In Section B, we discuss ground water level decline issues. In Section C, we enumerate the economic impacts of a possible reduction in crop production in Odessa Subregions of Adams and Lincoln Counties. Summary and conclusions are in the final section.Irrigation water shortage, Idessa sub-basin, Economic Impact,

Comparing the Economic Impact of an Export Shock in Two Modeling Frameworks

Because of more restrictive assumptions on regional input-output (IO) models compared to computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, the literature agrees IO results are intuitively consistent with long run equilibrium but otherwise overestimated. We compare the results of IO and CGE models from an exogenous export shock under various labor market constraints and capital closures. Consistent with the literature, we find the IO model's results do not match those of the CGE models. But contrary to conventional wisdom, the positive secondary impacts are larger with the CGE models than with the IO model. Furthermore, we find the closest match between direct effects is when the CGE model has short run restrictions. Our finding means that the common view of CGE model results being both lower in estimate and more accurate in the short run than IO models does not universally hold. Thus researchers’ choice of models and interpretation of results need to be more nuanced and cautious than previously thought.input-output, computable general equilibrium, economic impacts, exports

Demographic, clinical and lifestyle predictors for severity of erectile dysfunction and biomarkers level in Malaysian patients

The incidence of erectile dysfunction (ED) is rising worldwide and its prevalence is one of the main health concerns that affect overall men well-being in Malaysia. The cluster of demographic, clinical and lifestyle factors may have contributed to the severity of ED and changes in biomarkers level; nevertheless these have not been studied extensively. This cross sectional study involved a total of 276 patients with 138 was diagnosed with ED. The demographic, clinical, lifestyle factors and severity of ED were assessed using a set of questionnaire and the International Index of Erectile Function (IIEF-5). Meanwhile, Total Testosterone (TT) and Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) levels were determined using the enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA). Binary logistic regression test was used to demonstrate the predictors of severity of ED, TT and ADMA levels. Significant predictors for worsening of severity of ED are self-employed [10.55 (0.43 – 257.06), p=0.004], pensioner [8.07 (0.19 – 352.45), p=0.026], nongovernment employee [1.16 (0.05 – 26.26), p=0.04] and TT [0.41 (0.25 – 0.69), p=0.001]. Nevertheless, pensioner [0.08 (0.01 – 0.87), p=0.038] and unemployed [0.04 (0.01 – 0.42), p=0.007], were the predictors that may influence the changes of TT levels. On the other hand, academic qualification (secondary) [4.51 (0.48 – 42.83), p=0.014] and intensity of physical activities (< 1 hour/day) [2.61 (0.65 – 10.48), p=0.008] were the predictors which were more likely to influence the changes of ADMA levels in ED patients. TT and ADMA levels were influenced by demographic and lifestyle factors whilst severity of ED was predicted by demographic and clinical factors in Malaysian ED population. These predictors may provide new knowledge on risk factors of severity of ED and help in management of ED. Thus, the predictive models could serve as a primary guidance to physicians to ensure ED being managed and treated more effectively

DESIGN, OPTIMIZATION, DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF ONCE A DAY CONTROLLED RELEASE FORMULATION OF RIVASTIGMINE TARTARATE

Rivastigmine, an Anti-Alzheimer’s drug suffer from a major limitation of sever GI adverse events such as nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, loss of appetite, weight loss and increase dosing frequency [1]. The present work aim at design, optimization and development of rivastigmine once a day controlled release formulation to minimize the above limitation and increase patient’s compliance. Based on the target in-vitro release profile derived from pharmacokinetic simulation [2], a once a day matrix tablet with the simulated dose was developed. The simple direct compression process was followed as a manufacturing process, the percentage of Polymer HPMC K100M, Polyethylene oxide (PEO WSR303) and insoluble excipients microcrystalline cellulose used in the formulation were optimized using 23 full factorial design. The formulations were then evaluated for the physical characteristics of blend, tablets, swelling index, percentage of erosion, drug release and release rate kinetic. The quadratic model was suggested, contour and 3D graphs were generated. The optimized formulation was subjected to stability studies. The final optimized formulation showed a comparative release profile similar to that the desired in-vitro target release profile, which followed zero order release kinetics and a stable formulation.Keywords: Controlled Release Formulation, Rivastigmine Tartarate, Anti-Alzheimer’s drug, HPMC K100M, Polyethylene oxide (PEO WSR303

Investigating causes of the high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in Du Noon

Background: In South Africa, sexually transmitted infections (STIs) represent a significant public health issue. Sexually transmitted infections contribute significantly to the burden of disease in South Africa and are recognised as one of the main causes of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential causes of the high prevalence of STIs in the Du Noon population. Methods: A mixed methodology study involving 40 participants between the ages of 18 years and 45 years was conducted at Du Noon community health centre from 01 May 2021 to 15 May 2021. Both structured questionnaires and one-on-one patient interviews with open-ended questions were utilised to collect data. Results: Cultural beliefs, having multiple partners, a lack of partner notification, alcohol consumption, and a lack of condom usage were found to be the main contributing factors to the high incidence of STIs. Sex education appears to be lacking. Our findings reflected the other well-known cultural and socioeconomic issues confronting South African communities, for example, poverty, age-disparate relationships, and polygamous relationships. Conclusion: The cultural perspectives and understandings of sexual interactions of older men appear to have an impact on younger generations; as do peer pressure, social media and other socio-economic factors. There is an urgent need to shift cultural ideologies and norms among the youth. More research is needed to understand the views and misconceptions of the general public about STIs. Contribution: This study highlighted how health education challenges, interpersonal relationships, and socioeconomic barriers are still important factors in STI transmission

Development of a decision-support tool to quantify authorship contributions in clinical trial publications

Purpose This study aimed to develop a decision-support tool to quantitatively determine authorship in clinical trial publications. Methods The tool was developed in three phases: consolidation of authorship recommendations from the Good Publication Practice (GPP) and International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) guidelines, identifying and scoring attributes using a 5-point Likert scale or a dichotomous scale, and soliciting feedback from editors and researchers. Results The authorship criteria stipulated by the ICMJE and GPP recommendations were categorized into 2 Modules. Criterion 1 and the related GPP recommendations formed Module 1 (sub-criteria: contribution to design, data generation, and interpretation), while Module 2 was based on criteria 2 to 4 and the related GPP recommendations (sub-criteria: contribution to manuscript preparation and approval). The two modules with relevant sub-criteria were then differentiated into attributes (n = 17 in Module 1, n = 12 in Module 2). An individual contributor can be scored for each sub-criterion by summing the related attribute values; the sum of sub-criteria scores constituted the module score (Module 1 score: 70 [contribution to conception or design of the study, 20; data acquisition, 7; data analysis, 27; interpretation of data, 16]; Module 2 score: 50 [content development, 27; content review, 18; accountability, 5]). The concept was integrated into Microsoft Excel with adequate formulae and macros. A threshold of 50% for each sub-criterion and each module, with an overall score of 65%, is predefined as qualifying for authorship. Conclusion This authorship decision-support tool would be helpful for clinical trial sponsors to assess and provide authorship to deserving contributors

Linkage between prostate cancer occurrence and Y-chromosomal DYS loci in Malaysian subjects..

Purpose: Prostate cancer differs markedly in incidence across ethnic groups. Since this disease is influenced by complex genetics, it is many genetic factors may affect the level of susceptibility to development of the disease. In this study, four Y-linked short tandem repeats (STRs), DYS388, DYS435, DYS437, and DYS439, were genotyped to compare Malaysian prostate cancer patients and normal control males. Materials and methods: A total of 175 subjects comprising 84 patients and 91 healthy individuals were recruited. Multiplex PCR was optimized to co-amplify DYS388, DYS435, DYS437, and DYS439 loci. All samples were genotyped for alleles of four DYS loci using a Genetic Analysis System. Results: Of all DYS loci, allele 10 (A) of DYS388 had a significantly lower incidence of disease in compare with other alleles of this locus, while a higher incidence of disease was found among males who had either allele 12 (C) of DYS388 or allele 14 (E) of DYS439. Moreover, a total of 47 different haplotypes comprising different alleles of four DYS loci were found among the whole study samples, of which haplotypes AABC and CAAA showed a lower and higher frequency among cases than controls, respectively. Conclusions: It is likely that Malaysian males who belong to Y-lineages with either allele 12 of DYS388, allele 14 of DYS439, or haplotype CAAA are more susceptible to develop prostate cancer, while those belonging to lineages with allele 10 of DYS388 or haplotype AABC are more resistant to the disease