Forecasting project schedule performance using probabilistic and deterministic models

AbstractEarned value management (EVM) was originally developed for cost management and has not widely been used for forecasting project duration. In addition, EVM based formulas for cost or schedule forecasting are still deterministic and do not provide any information about the range of possible outcomes and the probability of meeting the project objectives. The objective of this paper is to develop three models to forecast the estimated duration at completion. Two of these models are deterministic; earned value (EV) and earned schedule (ES) models. The third model is a probabilistic model and developed based on Kalman filter algorithm and earned schedule management. Hence, the accuracies of the EV, ES and Kalman Filter Forecasting Model (KFFM) through the different project periods will be assessed and compared with the other forecasting methods such as the Critical Path Method (CPM), which makes the time forecast at activity level by revising the actual reporting data for each activity at a certain data date. A case study project is used to validate the results of the three models. Hence, the best model is selected based on the lowest average percentage of error. The results showed that the KFFM developed in this study provides probabilistic prediction bounds of project duration at completion and can be applied through the different project periods with smaller errors than those observed in EV and ES forecasting models

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Grilled Meats from Restaurants

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons are a group of lipophilic compounds that can be generated during the preparation of food items at elevated temperatures. They are regarded as potentially genotoxic and carcinogenic to human beings, related to increased incidence of breast and colorectal cancers, oxidative DNA injury, and bad effects on children neuro-differentiation. Thus, they are considered a public health concerns. A total of thirty samples of grilled beef steak, beef kofta and chicken (ten each) were collected from different restaurants. The samples were extracted by magnesium sulfate and sodium acetate in acetonitrile then purified in magnesium sulfate, primary, secondary amine and silica gel, and finally measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Benzo[a]pyrene was recorded with the highest average level (3.63µg/kg) in grilled kofta samples, but it was not detected in chicken samples. On the other hand, PAH4, PAH8 and ƩPAHs content were more abundant in grilled beef steak (5.32, 9.97 and 56.91µg/kg). Meanwhile, they recorded the least concentrations of grilled chicken from different restaurants. Furthermore, benzo[a]pyrene exceeded the permissible limits of the European Commission and Egyptian National Food Safety Authority in grilled kofta samples; further studies are needed to investigate the limits of exposure to these harmful compounds from meats and other food items

Fusarium and allied fusarioid taxa (FUSA). 1

Seven Fusarium species complexes are treated, namely F. aywerte species complex (FASC) (two species), F. buharicum species complex (FBSC) (five species), F. burgessii species complex (FBURSC) (three species), F. camptoceras species complex (FCAMSC) (three species), F. chlamydosporum species complex (FCSC) (eight species), F. citricola species complex (FCCSC) (five species) and the F. concolor species complex (FCOSC) (four species). New species include Fusicolla elongata from soil (Zimbabwe), and Neocosmospora geoasparagicola from soil associated with Asparagus officinalis (Netherlands). New combinations include Neocosmospora akasia, N. awan, N. drepaniformis, N. duplosperma, N. geoasparagicola, N. mekan, N. papillata, N. variasi and N. warna. Newly validated taxa include Longinectria gen. nov., L. lagenoides, L. verticilliforme, Fusicolla gigas and Fusicolla guangxiensis. Furthermore, Fusarium rosicola is reduced to synonymy under N. brevis. Finally, the genome assemblies of Fusarium secorum (CBS 175.32), Microcera coccophila (CBS 310.34), Rectifusarium robinianum (CBS 430.91), Rugonectria rugulosa (CBS 126565), and Thelonectria blattea (CBS 952.68) are also announced her

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on TAVR Activity: A Worldwide Registry

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic had a considerable impact on the provision of structural heart intervention worldwide. Our objectives were: 1) to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) activity globally; and 2) to determine the differences in the impact according to geographic region and the demographic, development, and economic status of diverse international health care systems. Methods: We developed a multinational registry of global TAVR activity and invited individual TAVR sites to submit TAVR implant data before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the number of TAVR procedures performed monthly from January 2019 to December 2021 was collected. The adaptive measures to maintain TAVR activity by each site were recorded, as was a variety of indices relating to type of health care system and national economic indices. The primary subject of interest was the impact on TAVR activity during each of the pandemic waves (2020 and 2021) compared with the same period pre–COVID-19 (2019). Results: Data were received from 130 centers from 61 countries, with 14 subcontinents and 5 continents participating in the study. Overall, TAVR activity increased by 16.7% (2,337 procedures) between 2018 and 2019 (ie, before the pandemic), but between 2019 and 2020 (ie, first year of the pandemic), there was no significant growth (–0.1%; –10 procedures). In contrast, activity again increased by 18.9% (3,085 procedures) between 2020 and 2021 (ie, second year of the pandemic). During the first pandemic wave, there was a reduction of 18.9% (945 procedures) in TAVR activity among participating sites, while during the second and third waves, there was an increase of 6.7% (489 procedures) and 15.9% (1,042 procedures), respectively. Further analysis and results of this study are ongoing and will be available at the time of the congress. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic initially led to a reduction in the number of patients undergoing TAVR worldwide, although health care systems subsequently adapted, and the number of TAVR recipients continued to grow in subsequent COVID-19 pandemic waves. Categories: STRUCTURAL: Valvular Disease: Aorti

Final results from the PERUSE study of first-line pertuzumab plus trastuzumab plus a taxane for HER2-positive locally recurrent or metastatic breast cancer, with a multivariable approach to guide prognostication

Background: The phase III CLinical Evaluation Of Pertuzumab And TRAstuzumab (CLEOPATRA) trial established the combination of pertuzumab, trastuzumab and docetaxel as standard first-line therapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive locally recurrent/metastatic breast cancer (LR/mBC). The multicentre single-arm PERtUzumab global SafEty (PERUSE) study assessed the safety and efficacy of pertuzumab and trastuzumab combined with investigator-selected taxane in this setting. Patients and methods: Eligible patients with inoperable HER2-positive LR/mBC and no prior systemic therapy for LR/mBC (except endocrine therapy) received docetaxel, paclitaxel or nab-paclitaxel with trastuzumab and pertuzumab until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint was safety. Secondary endpoints included progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Prespecified subgroup analyses included subgroups according to taxane, hormone receptor (HR) status and prior trastuzumab. Exploratory univariable analyses identified potential prognostic factors; those that remained significant in multivariable analysis were used to analyse PFS and OS in subgroups with all, some or none of these factors. Results: Of 1436 treated patients, 588 (41%) initially received paclitaxel and 918 (64%) had HR-positive disease. The most common grade 653 adverse events were neutropenia (10%, mainly with docetaxel) and diarrhoea (8%). At the final analysis (median follow-up: 5.7 years), median PFS was 20.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.9-23.1] months overall and was similar irrespective of HR status or taxane. Median OS was 65.3 (95% CI 60.9-70.9) months overall. OS was similar regardless of taxane backbone but was more favourable in patients with HR-positive than HR-negative LR/mBC. In exploratory analyses, trastuzumab-pretreated patients with visceral disease had the shortest median PFS (13.1 months) and OS (46.3 months). Conclusions: Mature results from PERUSE show a safety and efficacy profile consistent with results from CLEOPATRA and median OS exceeding 5 years. Results suggest that paclitaxel is a valid alternative to docetaxel as backbone chemotherapy. Exploratory analyses suggest risk factors that could guide future trial design

Preliminary safety and efficacy of first-line pertuzumab combined with trastuzumab and taxane therapy for HER2-positive locally recurrent or metastatic breast cancer (PERUSE).

BACKGROUND: Pertuzumab combined with trastuzumab and docetaxel is the standard first-line therapy for HER2-positive metastatic breast cancer, based on results from the phase III CLEOPATRA trial. PERUSE was designed to assess the safety and efficacy of investigator-selected taxane with pertuzumab and trastuzumab in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the ongoing multicentre single-arm phase IIIb PERUSE study, patients with inoperable HER2-positive advanced breast cancer (locally recurrent/metastatic) (LR/MBC) and no prior systemic therapy for LR/MBC (except endocrine therapy) received docetaxel, paclitaxel or nab-paclitaxel with trastuzumab [8\u2009mg/kg loading dose, then 6\u2009mg/kg every 3\u2009weeks (q3w)] and pertuzumab (840\u2009mg loading dose, then 420\u2009mg q3w) until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary end point was safety. Secondary end points included overall response rate (ORR) and progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: Overall, 1436 patients received at least one treatment dose (initially docetaxel in 775 patients, paclitaxel in 589, nab-paclitaxel in 65; 7 discontinued before starting taxane). Median age was 54\u2009years; 29% had received prior trastuzumab. Median treatment duration was 16\u2009months for pertuzumab and trastuzumab and 4\u2009months for taxane. Compared with docetaxel-containing therapy, paclitaxel-containing therapy was associated with more neuropathy (all-grade peripheral neuropathy 31% versus 16%) but less febrile neutropenia (1% versus 11%) and mucositis (14% versus 25%). At this preliminary analysis (52 months' median follow-up), median PFS was 20.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.9-22.7] months overall (19.6, 23.0 and 18.1\u2009months with docetaxel, paclitaxel and nab-paclitaxel, respectively). ORR was 80% (95% CI 78%-82%) overall (docetaxel 79%, paclitaxel 83%, nab-paclitaxel 77%). CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary findings from PERUSE suggest that the safety and efficacy of first-line pertuzumab, trastuzumab and taxane for HER2-positive LR/MBC are consistent with results from CLEOPATRA. Paclitaxel appears to be a valid alternative taxane backbone to docetaxel, offering similar PFS and ORR with a predictable safety profile. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT01572038

Fusarium: more than a node or a foot-shaped basal cell

Recent publications have argued that there are potentially serious consequences for researchers in recognising distinct genera in the terminal fusarioid clade of the family Nectriaceae. Thus, an alternate hypothesis, namely a very broad concept of the genus Fusarium was proposed. In doing so, however, a significant body of data that supports distinct genera in Nectriaceae based on morphology, biology, and phylogeny is disregarded. A DNA phylogeny based on 19 orthologous protein-coding genes was presented to support a very broad concept of Fusarium at the F1 node in Nectriaceae. Here, we demonstrate that re-analyses of this dataset show that all 19 genes support the F3 node that represents Fusarium sensu stricto as defined by F. sambucinum (sexual morph synonym Gibberella pulicaris). The backbone of the phylogeny is resolved by the concatenated alignment, but only six of the 19 genes fully support the F1 node, representing the broad circumscription of Fusarium. Furthermore, a re-analysis of the concatenated dataset revealed alternate topologies in different phylogenetic algorithms, highlighting the deep divergence and unresolved placement of various Nectriaceae lineages proposed as members of Fusarium. Species of Fusarium s. str. are characterised by Gibberella sexual morphs, asexual morphs with thin- or thick-walled macroconidia that have variously shaped apical and basal cells, and trichothecene mycotoxin production, which separates them from other fusarioid genera. Here we show that the Wollenweber concept of Fusarium presently accounts for 20 segregate genera with clear-cut synapomorphic traits, and that fusarioid macroconidia represent a character that has been gained or lost multiple times throughout Nectriaceae. Thus, the very broad circumscription of Fusarium is blurry and without apparent synapomorphies, and does not include all genera with fusarium-like macroconidia, which are spread throughout Nectriaceae (e.g., Cosmosporella, Macroconia, Microcera). In this study four new genera are introduced, along with 18 new species and 16 new combinations. These names convey information about relationships, morphology, and ecological preference that would otherwise be lost in a broader definition of Fusarium. To assist users to correctly identify fusarioid genera and species, we introduce a new online identification database, Fusarioid-ID, accessible at www.fusarium.org. The database comprises partial sequences from multiple genes commonly used to identify fusarioid taxa (act1, CaM, his3, rpb1, rpb2, tef1, tub2, ITS, and LSU). In this paper, we also present a nomenclator of names that have been introduced in Fusarium up to January 2021 as well as their current status, types, and diagnostic DNA barcode data. In this study, researchers from 46 countries, representing taxonomists, plant pathologists, medical mycologists, quarantine officials, regulatory agencies, and students, strongly support the application and use of a more precisely delimited Fusarium (= Gibberella) concept to accommodate taxa from the robust monophyletic node F3 on the basis of a well-defined and unique combination of morphological and biochemical features. This F3 node includes, among others, species of the F. fujikuroi, F. incarnatum-equiseti, F. oxysporum, and F. sambucinum species complexes, but not species of Bisifusarium [F. dimerum species complex (SC)], Cyanonectria (F. buxicola SC), Geejayessia (F. staphyleae SC), Neocosmospora (F. solani SC) or Rectifusarium (F. ventricosum SC). The present study represents the first step to generating a new online monograph of Fusarium and allied fusarioid genera (www.fusarium.org)

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction : an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

Background Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally. Methods Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex. Results Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older. Conclusions Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys