Optimal electricity supply system under Iranian framework limitations to meet its emission pledge under the Paris climate agreement

As part of its Paris Agreement commitment, Iran pledged to decrease 4 percent of its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 2020 to 2030. About 29% of total emission in Iran belongs to electricity supply while energy consumption in other sectors (transport, household, and industry) have a lower share in CO2 emission. The main concern here is finding the optimal mix of power plants in the electricity supply system that should be deployed to meet Iran’s mentioned respective targets. So, we developed a non-linear mathematical programming model for Iran’s electricity system to address this concern. Results show that a 10-20% diffusion of renewable energy and converting gas turbine power plants to gas combined cycle technology with 5% annual rate can satisfy Iran’s emissions pledge under the Paris Climate Accord. Finally, this model has been run for years between 2017-2030. Four scenarios have also been prepared based on different Iranian Five-Year Development Plans

Policy Framework for Iran to Attain 20% Share of Non-Fossil Fuel Power Plants in Iran’s Electricity Supply System by 2030

This paper presents a comprehensive model on the expansion of non-fossil technology to evaluate the impact of increasing their share in Iran’s electricity supply system. This analytical approach is based on system dynamics (SD), with an emphasis on the expansion of non-fossil fuels in the supply side of this model. Four emerging electricity generation technologies of solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, expansion turbines, and hydro power are considered in the model, and the effect of electricity price on increasing the motivation of the owners of non-fossil fuel power plants to guarantee their 20% share is examined. The Iranian government has set a target of a 20% share of non-fossil fuel electricity generation by 2030, whose main result is reducing GHG emissions to achieve the targets pledged under the Paris Climate Accord. Therefore, we developed four scenarios with different expansions of non-fossil technologies in Iran’s electricity system to investigate the goal, though various barriers exist that must be addressed through effective policies in order to facilitate the expansion of non-fossil fuel power plants in the electricity supply system. The findings demonstrate that electricity price must be determined based on the costs of non-fossil technologies, as well as based on fossil fuel prices which are low in the current energy supply system. In conclusion, the Paris Climate Accord criteria is achieved with a 20% growth of non-fossil fuels and increasing electricity price to 920 IRR/kWh in 2030