On the phenomenon of mixed dynamics in Pikovsky-Topaj system of coupled rotators

A one-parameter family of time-reversible systems on three-dimensional torus is considered. It is shown that the dynamics is not conservative, namely the attractor and repeller intersect but not coincide. We explain this as the manifestation of the so-called mixed dynamics phenomenon which corresponds to a persistent intersection of the closure of the stable periodic orbits and the closure of the completely unstable periodic orbits. We search for the stable and unstable periodic orbits indirectly, by finding non-conservative saddle periodic orbits and heteroclinic connections between them. In this way, we are able to claim the existence of mixed dynamics for a large range of parameter values. We investigate local and global bifurcations that can be used for the detection of mixed dynamics

Histological validation of diagnoses of thyroid cancer among adults in the registries of Belarus and the Ukraine

In order to evaluate the diagnostic reliability of the thyroid cancers listed in adult registries from the Ukraine and Belarus, a histological review was organised of 327 randomly selected thyroid carcinoma cases diagnosed between 1960 and 1999. A final diagnosis was reached at a 5-day consensus conference by six pathologists who met around a multiheaded microscope. The study concluded with a comparison between the final diagnosis and the initial diagnosis. The pathologists agreed with the initial diagnosis of malignancy in 286 cases (88%). A final diagnosis of papillary, follicular or medullary thyroid carcinoma was reached in 86, 4, and 6% of the cases respectively. In 2.8% of the cases reviewed, diagnostic discrepancies persisted. The percentage of agreement between the final diagnosis and the initial diagnosis was 93%, with a weighted κ-statistic of 0.61 (confidence interval 95% (CI 95%): [0.45-0.77]). In all, 89% of the 286 confirmed cancer cases were in agreement for the type of cancer, with a κ-statistic of 0.56 (CI95%: [0.43-0.69]). The level of agreement differed according to cancer categories, with concordance rates of 94, 40 and 33% for papillary, follicular and medullary thyroid carcinomas respectively. The low prevalence of follicular thyroid carcinomas in the adult population studied calls for further exploration. The discrepancies and classification difficulties encountered were analysed. © 2003 Cancer Research UK

Genetic Basis of Virulence Attenuation Revealed by Comparative Genomic Analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strain H37Ra versus H37Rv

Tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, remains a leading infectious disease despite the availability of chemotherapy and BCG vaccine. The commonly used avirulent M. tuberculosis strain H37Ra was derived from virulent strain H37 in 1935 but the basis of virulence attenuation has remained obscure despite numerous studies. We determined the complete genomic sequence of H37Ra ATCC25177 and compared that with its virulent counterpart H37Rv and a clinical isolate CDC1551. The H37Ra genome is highly similar to that of H37Rv with respect to gene content and order but is 8,445 bp larger as a result of 53 insertions and 21 deletions in H37Ra relative to H37Rv. Variations in repetitive sequences such as IS6110 and PE/PPE/PE-PGRS family genes are responsible for most of the gross genetic changes. A total of 198 single nucleotide variations (SNVs) that are different between H37Ra and H37Rv were identified, yet 119 of them are identical between H37Ra and CDC1551 and 3 are due to H37Rv strain variation, leaving only 76 H37Ra-specific SNVs that affect only 32 genes. The biological impact of missense mutations in protein coding sequences was analyzed in silico while nucleotide variations in potential promoter regions of several important genes were verified by quantitative RT-PCR. Mutations affecting transcription factors and/or global metabolic regulations related to in vitro survival under aging stress, and mutations affecting cell envelope, primary metabolism, in vivo growth as well as variations in the PE/PPE/PE-PGRS family genes, may underlie the basis of virulence attenuation. These findings have implications not only for improved understanding of pathogenesis of M. tuberculosis but also for development of new vaccines and new therapeutic agents

Predictive JET current ramp-up modelling using QuaLiKiz-neural-network

This work applies the coupled JINTRAC and QuaLiKiz-neural-network (QLKNN) model on the ohmic current ramp-up phase of a JET D discharge. The chosen scenario exhibits a hollow T-e profile attributed to core impurity accumulation, which is observed to worsen with the increasing fuel ion mass from D to T. A dynamic D simulation was validated, evolving j, n(e), T-e, T-i, n(Be), n(Ni), and n(W) for 7.25 s along with self-consistent equilibrium calculations, and was consequently extended to simulate a pure T plasma in a predict-first exercise. The light impurity (Be) accounted for Z(eff) while the heavy impurities (Ni, W) accounted for Prad. This study reveals the role of transport on the Te hollowing, which originates from the isotope effect on the electron-ion energy exchange affecting T-i. This exercise successfully affirmed isotopic trends from previous H experiments and provided engineering targets used to recreate the D q-profile in T experiments, demonstrating the potential of neural network surrogates for fast routine analysis and discharge design. However, discrepancies were found between the impurity transport behaviour of QuaLiKiz and QLKNN, which lead to notable T-e hollowing differences. Further investigation into the turbulent component of heavy impurity transport is recommended

Peripheral temperature gradient screening of high-Z impurities in optimised 'hybrid' scenario H-mode plasmas in JET-ILW

Screening of high-Z (W) impurities from the confined plasma by the temperature gradient at the plasma periphery of fusion-grade H-mode plasmas has been demonstrated in the JET-ILW (ITER-like wall) tokamak. Through careful optimisation of the hybrid-scenario, deuterium plasmas with sufficient heating power (greater than or similar to 32 MW), high enough ion temperature gradients at the H-mode pedestal top can be achieved for the collisional, neo-classical convection of the W impurities to be directed outwards, expelling them from the confined plasma. Measurements of the W impurity fluxes between and during edge-localised modes (ELMs) based on fast bolometry measurements show that in such plasmas there is a net efflux (loss) between ELMs but that ELMs often allow some W back into the confined plasma. Provided steady, high-power heating is maintained, this mechanism allows such plasmas to sustain high performance, with an average D-D neutron rate of similar to 3.2 x 10(16) s(-1) over a period of similar to 3 s, after an initial overshoot (equivalent to a D-T fusion power of similar to 9.4 MW), without an uncontrolled rise in W impurity radiation, giving added confidence that impurity screening by the pedestal may also occur in ITER, as has previously been predicted (Dux et al 2017 Nucl. Mater. Energy 12 28-35)

Testing a prediction model for the H-mode density pedestal against JET-ILW pedestals

The neutral ionisation model proposed by Groebner et al (2002 Phys. Plasmas 9 2134) to determine the plasma density profile in the H-mode pedestal, is extended to include charge exchange processes in the pedestal stimulated by the ideas of Mahdavi et al (2003 Phys. Plasmas 10 3984). The model is then tested against JET H-mode pedestal data, both in a 'standalone' version using experimental temperature profiles and also by incorporating it in the Europed version of EPED. The model is able to predict the density pedestal over a wide range of conditions with good accuracy. It is also able to predict the experimentally observed isotope effect on the density pedestal that eludes simpler neutral ionization models

First-Principles Density Limit Scaling in Tokamaks Based on Edge Turbulent Transport and Implications for ITER

A first-principles scaling law, based on turbulent transport considerations, and a multimachine database of density limit discharges from the ASDEX Upgrade, JET, and TCV tokamaks, show that the increase of the boundary turbulent transport with the plasma collisionality sets the maximum density achievable in tokamaks. This scaling law shows a strong dependence on the heating power, therefore predicting for ITER a significantly larger safety margin than the Greenwald empirical scaling [Greenwald et al., Nucl. Fusion, 28, 2199 (1988)] in case of unintentional high-to-low confinement transition

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Disruption Predictors at JET

Reliable disruption prediction (DP) and disruption mitigation systems are considered unavoidable during international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) operations and in the view of the next fusion reactors such as the DEMOnstration Power Plant (DEMO) and China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR). In the last two decades, a great number of DP systems have been developed using data-driven methods. The performance of the DP models has been improved over the years both for a more appropriate choice of diagnostics and input features and for the availability of increasingly powerful data-driven modelling techniques. However, a direct comparison among the proposals has not yet been conducted. Such a comparison is mandatory, at least for the same device, to learn lessons from all these efforts and finally choose the best set of diagnostic signals and the best modelling approach. A first effort towards this goal is made in this paper, where different DP models will be compared using the same performance indices and the same device. In particular, the performance of a conventional Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP-NN) model is compared with those of two more sophisticated models, based on Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), on the same real time diagnostic signals from several experiments at the JET tokamak. The most common performance indices have been used to compare the different DP models and the results are deeply discussed. The comparison confirms the soundness of all the investigated machine learning approaches and the chosen diagnostics, enables us to highlight the pros and cons of each model, and helps to consciously choose the approach that best matches with the plasma protection needs