Chip level simulation of fault tolerant computers

Chip level modeling techniques, functional fault simulation, simulation software development, a more efficient, high level version of GSP, and a parallel architecture for functional simulation are discussed

Is FIRST J102347.6+003841 Really a Cataclysmic Binary?

The radio source FIRST J102347.6+003841 was presented as the first radio-selected cataclysmic. In the discovery paper, Bond et al. (2002) show a spectrum consistent with a magnetic AM Her-type system and a light curve with rapid, irregular flickering. In contrast, Woudt, Warner, and Pretorius (2004) found a smoothly-varying light curve with a period near 4.75 h and one minimum per orbit, indicating a dramatic change. We present time-resolved spectra showing a superficially normal, mid-G type photosphere, with no detectable emission lines. The absorption-line radial velocity varies sinusoidally, with semi-amplitude 268 +- 4 km/s, on the orbital period, which is refined to 0.198094(2) d. At this orbital period the secondary's spectral type is atypically early, suggesting an unusual evolutionary history. We also obtained BVI photometry around the orbit. The light curve resembles that given by Woudt et al., and the color modulation is consistent with a heating effect. A simple illumination model matches the observations strikingly well with a Roche-lobe filling secondary near 5650 kelvin being illuminated by a primary giving out around 2 solar luminosities. The modest amplitude of the observed modulation constrains the orbital inclination to be less than about 55 deg, unless the gravity darkening is artificially reduced. The resulting primary star mass is above the Chandrasekhar limit (assuming conventional gravity darkening). We examine the possibility that the compact object in this system is not a white dwarf, in which case this is not actually a cataclysmic variable. On close examination, FIRST J102347.6+003841 defies easy classification.Comment: 24 pages, 5 postscript and two JPG figures; Astronomical Journal, accepte

Forecasting for Marketing

Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide guidelines for forecasting for marketing. The coverage includes intentions, Delphi, role playing, conjoint analysis, judgmental bootstrapping, analogies, extrapolation, rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We discuss research about which methods are most appropriate to forecast market size, actions of decision makers, market share, sales, and financial outcomes. In general, there is a need for statistical methods that incorporate the manager's domain knowledge. This includes rule-based forecasting, expert systems, and econometric methods. We describe how to choose a forecasting method and provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts including such procedures as scenarios.forecasting, marketing

KIC 2856960: the impossible triple star

KIC 2856960 is a star in the Kepler field which was observed by Kepler for 4 years. It shows the primary and secondary eclipses of a close binary of 0.258d as well as complex dipping events that last for about 1.5d at a time and recur on a 204d period. The dips are thought to result when the close binary passes across the face of a third star. In this paper we present an attempt to model the dips. Despite the apparent simplicity of the system and strenuous efforts to find a solution, we find that we cannot match the dips with a triple star while satisfying Kepler's laws. The problem is that to match the dips the separation of the close binary has to be larger than possible relative to the outer orbit given the orbital periods. Quadruple star models can get round this problem but require the addition of a so-far undetected intermediate period of order 5 -- 20d that has be a near-perfect integer divisor of the outer 204d period. Although we have no good explanation for KIC 2856960, using the full set of Kepler data we are able to update several of its parameters. We also present a spectrum showing that KIC 2856960 is dominated by light from a K3- or K4-type star.Comment: 11 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS August 21, 201

Nano-Hertz Gravitational Waves Searches with Interferometric Pulsar Timing Experiments

We estimate the sensitivity to nano-Hertz gravitational waves of pulsar timing experiments in which two highly-stable millisecond pulsars are tracked simultaneously with two neighboring radio telescopes that are referenced to the same time-keeping subsystem (i.e. "the clock"). By taking the difference of the two time-of-arrival residual data streams we can exactly cancel the clock noise in the combined data set, thereby enhancing the sensitivity to gravitational waves. We estimate that, in the band ($10^{-9} - 10^{-8}$) Hz, this "interferometric" pulsar timing technique can potentially improve the sensitivity to gravitational radiation by almost two orders of magnitude over that of single-telescopes. Interferometric pulsar timing experiments could be performed with neighboring pairs of antennas of the forthcoming large arraying projects.Comment: Paper submitted to Phys. Rev. Letters. It is 9 pages long, and includes 2 figure

Development and collapse of an Oscillatoria bloom in Loch Leven during July 1994

During 1994, weekly spot-sampling of open water sites on Loch Leven took place from 16th March onwards. Very little difference between spot-sampling sites was observed from 16th March to 5th July. Throughout April and May there was a slow increase in levels of chlorophyll-a, followed by a rapid increase through June, reaching a maximum of 230 micrograms per litre. On 8th July there was a very rapid rise in water temperature, with a corresponding increase in dissolved oxygen and pH. At 0915 hours on 9th July there was a drop in all three variables. These changes were coincident with a marked reduction in chlorophyll-a values falling to 70 micrograms per litre on 12th July. On 16th July evidence of a resurgence of photosynthesis was observed

Forecasting Methods for Marketing:* Review of Empirical Research

This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of marketing, and then review the literature in light of that framework. Particular emphasis is given to a pragmatic interpretation of the literature and findings. Suggestions are made on what research is needed.forecasting, marketing, methods, review, research

Particle acceleration due to shocks in the interplanetary field: High time resolution data and simulation results

Data were examined from two experiments aboard the Explorer 50 (IMP 8) spacecraft. The Johns Hopkins University/Applied Lab Charged Particle Measurement Experiment (CPME) provides 10.12 second resolution ion and electron count rates as well as 5.5 minute or longer averages of the same, with data sampled in the ecliptic plane. The high time resolution of the data allows for an explicit, point by point, merging of the magnetic field and particle data and thus a close examination of the pre- and post-shock conditions and particle fluxes associated with large angle oblique shocks in the interplanetary field. A computer simulation has been developed wherein sample particle trajectories, taken from observed fluxes, are allowed to interact with a planar shock either forward or backward in time. One event, the 1974 Day 312 shock, is examined in detail

Effects of Extreme Obliquity Variations on the Habitability of Exoplanets

We explore the impact of obliquity variations on planetary habitability in hypothetical systems with high mutual inclination. We show that large amplitude, high frequency obliquity oscillations on Earth-like exoplanets can suppress the ice-albedo feedback, increasing the outer edge of the habitable zone. We restrict our exploration to hypothetical systems consisting of a solar-mass star, an Earth-mass planet at 1 AU, and 1 or 2 larger planets. We verify that these systems are stable for $10^8$ years with N-body simulations, and calculate the obliquity variations induced by the orbital evolution of the Earth-mass planet and a torque from the host star. We run a simplified energy balance model on the terrestrial planet to assess surface temperature and ice coverage on the planet's surface, and we calculate differences in the outer edge of the habitable zone for planets with rapid obliquity variations. For each hypothetical system, we calculate the outer edge of habitability for two conditions: 1) the full evolution of the planetary spin and orbit, and 2) the eccentricity and obliquity fixed at their average values. We recover previous results that higher values of fixed obliquity and eccentricity expand the habitable zone, but also find that obliquity oscillations further expand habitable orbits in all cases. Terrestrial planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone may be more likely to support life in systems that induce rapid obliquity oscillations as opposed to fixed-spin planets. Such planets may be the easiest to directly characterize with space-borne telescopes.Comment: 46 pages, 12 Figures, 5 Table