Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

International audienceRecent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows

Diets high in n-3 fatty acids are associated with lower arterial stiffness in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: a latent profile analysis

Supplementation with n-3 fatty acids can influence inflammation and markers of arterial stiffness that are increased in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). However, it is unknown whether specific patterns of dietary fatty acid intake are similarly associated. In a longitudinal study, eighty-six RA patients reported their dietary intake and had arterial stiffness measured using the augmentation index (AIx) at baseline and 8 months. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was performed to characterise patterns of fatty acid intake using sixteen major fatty acids. Models for two to six profiles were compared using the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. Associations between AIx and the profiles were adjusted for age, sex, disease activity, fish oil supplementation, medications, physical activity and socio-economic status. LPA identified five distinct profiles. Profile 1 subjects (n 7) reported significantly higher intake of palmitoleic acid (16 : 1), arachidonic acid (20 : 4n-6), EPA (20 : 5n-3), DHA (22 : 6n-3) and docosapentaenoic acid (22 : 5n-3) (

Circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine and cognitive decline : A 4‐year follow‐up study of the 1936 Aberdeen Birth Cohort

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge all participants of the ABC36 study. They acknowledge their colleagues, Prof Lawrence Whalley, Prof Ian Deary and the late Prof John Starr who developed the study. F.T. acknowledges support by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish government (RESAS). Funding Information NHS Grampian R&D Endowments. Grant Number: 11/08 Scottish government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services DivisionPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Lateral Earth Pressure at Rest and Shear Modulus Measurements on Hanford Sludge Simulants

This report describes the equipment, techniques, and results of lateral earth pressure at rest and shear modulus measurements on kaolin clay as well as two chemical sludge simulants. The testing was performed in support of the problem of hydrogen gas retention and release encountered in the double- shell tanks (DSTs) at the Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. Wastes from single-shell tanks (SSTs) are being transferred to double-shell tanks (DSTs) for safety reasons (some SSTs are leaking or are in danger of leaking), but the available DST space is limited