Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming

Tropical cyclones rank above earthquakes as the major geophysical cause of loss of life and property (Bryant, 1991; Houghton, 1994). In the United States alone, the damage bill from mainland landfalling hurricanes over the last 50 years averages $2.0 billion per year (Hebert et al., 1996). Years with high numbers of hurricanes provide new insight on the environmental factors influencing interannual variability; hence the interest in the exceptional 1995 Atlantic season which saw 11 hurricanes and a total of 19 tropical storms, double the 50-year average. While most environmental factors in 1995 were favourable for tropical cyclone development, we show that a factor not fully explored before, the sea surface temperature (SST) was the most significant. For the 10 degrees-20 degrees N, 20 degrees-60 degrees W region where 93% of the anomalous 1995 hurricanes developed, similar to 45 year statistical regressions show that SST is the dominating influence, independent of all known other factors, behind the interannual variance in Atlantic hurricance numbers. With this SST experiencing record warm levels in 1995, 0.66 degrees C above the 1946-1995 mean, these regressions indicate that sea warming explains 61+/-34% of the anomalous hurricane activity in 1995 to 95% confidence

Serious Games Application for Memory Training Using Egocentric Images

Mild cognitive impairment is the early stage of several neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's. In this work, we address the use of lifelogging as a tool to obtain pictures from a patient's daily life from an egocentric point of view. We propose to use them in combination with serious games as a way to provide a non-pharmacological treatment to improve their quality of life. To do so, we introduce a novel computer vision technique that classifies rich and non rich egocentric images and uses them in serious games. We present results over a dataset composed by 10,997 images, recorded by 7 different users, achieving 79% of F1-score. Our model presents the first method used for automatic egocentric images selection applicable to serious games.Comment: 11 page

‘Sing Every Day’: The wider benefits of a school-based singing project with disadvantaged children

The paper reports on a research evaluation of a six-month specialist singing project ‘Sing Every Day’ that was undertaken with young disadvantaged inner-city 6yo children in the London Borough of Hackney. A team of professional singers from the London-based VOCES8 Foundation visited two classes in each of two Primary schools to provide focused mentoring to generalist (non-music specialist) class teachers. Children from two identically aged classes in a neighbouring school acted as controls. The mentoring embraced a specially designed programme of singing and vocal activities across two school terms. This was undertaken in each classroom with the staff and their Year 1 children numbering N=121 in total. An independent evaluation of the impact of the project included both musical and other-than-musical measures of children’s development. In particular, in addition to an assessment of participant children’s singing behaviours at the start and at end of the project, other assessments included measures of possible changes in children’s reading development and in aspects of Executive Functions. Overall, the implications from the data are that the mentored classroom-based singing activities resulted in significant improvements in children’s singing, as well as positive changes in reading and aspects of Executive Function related to inhibition and phonological working memory – the latter being closely correlated to changes in the same children’s reading scores. Although there is previous research literature reporting positive links separately between music, singing, reading and aspects of Executive Functions, this small-scale study is one of the first to explore these three aspects collectively. As such, the current data suggest that more detailed research would be useful, both in seeking possible replication of the findings with a larger group of participants and also to understand the mechanisms of such possible linkage in terms of both basic research and also its implications for music pedagogy

Sampling and measurement methods for a study of childhood refractive error in a UK population

International audienceBackground There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. Methods Children aged 6-7 years and 12-13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. Results 399 (57%) of 6-7 years and 669 (60%) of 12-13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. Conclusions The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data

Changes in STI and HIV testing and testing need among men who have sex with men during the UK's COVID-19 pandemic response.

OBJECTIVES: We examined the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on sexual behaviours, STI and HIV testing and testing need among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the UK. METHODS: We used social media and dating applications to recruit to three cross-sectional surveys (S1-S3) during the UK's pandemic response (S1: 23 June-14 July 2020; S2: 23 November-12 December 2020; S3: 23 March-14 April 2021). Surveys included lookback periods of around 3-4 months (P1-P3, respectively). Eligible participants were UK resident men (cisgender/transgender) and gender-diverse people assigned male at birth (low numbers of trans and gender-diverse participants meant restricting these analyses to cisgender men), aged ≥16 years who reported sex with men (cisgender/transgender) in the last year (S1: N=1950; S2: N=1463; S3: N=1487). Outcomes were: recent STI/HIV testing and unmet testing need (new male and/or multiple condomless anal sex partners without a recent STI/HIV test). Crude and adjusted associations with each outcome were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: Participants' sociodemographic characteristics were similar across surveys. The proportion reporting a recent STI and/or HIV test increased between P1 and P2 (25.0% to 37.2% (p<0.001) and 29.7% to 39.4% (p<0.001), respectively), then stabilised in P3 (40.5% reporting HIV testing). Unmet STI testing need increased across P1 and P2 (26.0% to 32.4%; p<0.001), but trends differed between groups, for example, unmet STI testing need was higher in bisexually-identifying (vs gay-identifying) MSM across periods (adjusted OR (aOR): P1=1.64; P2=1.42), but declined in HIV-positive (vs HIV-negative/unknown) MSM (aOR: P1=2.06; P2=0.68). Unmet HIV testing need increased across P1 and P2 (22.9% to 31.0%; p<0.001) and declined in P3 (25.1%; p=0.001). During P3, MSM reporting a low life-satisfaction level (vs medium-very high) had greater unmet need (aOR: 1.44), while from P2 onwards HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis users (vs non-users) had lower unmet need (aOR: P2=0.32; P3=0.50). CONCLUSION: Considerable unmet STI/HIV testing need occurred among MSM during COVID-19-related restrictions, especially in bisexually-identifying men and those reporting low life satisfaction. Improving access to STI/HIV testing in MSM is essential to prevent inequalities being exacerbated

Sexual behaviour, STI and HIV testing and testing need among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men recruited for online surveys pre/post-COVID-19 restrictions in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: We examined sexual behaviour, sexually transmitted infection (STI) and HIV testing and testing need, and identified associated factors, among gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the UK after COVID-19 restrictions ended, and compared these with 'pre-pandemic' estimates. METHODS: We analysed survey data from GBMSM (N=1039) recruited via social media and Grindr in November-December 2021. We then compared Grindr-recruited 2021 participants (N=437) with those from an equivalent survey fielded in March-May 2017 (N=1902). Questions on sexual behaviour and service use had lookback periods of 3-4 months in both surveys. Unmet testing need was defined as reporting any new male and/or multiple condomless anal sex (CAS) partners without recent STI/HIV testing. Participants were UK residents, GBMSM, aged ≥16 years who reported sex with men in the last year. Multivariable logistic regression identified associated sociodemographic and health-related factors with unmet STI/HIV testing need in 2021, and then for 2017/2021 comparative analyses, adjusting for demographic differences. RESULTS: In 2021, unmet STI and HIV testing need were greater among older GBMSM (aged ≥45 years vs 16-29 years; adjusted OR (aOR): 1.45 and aOR: 1.77, respectively), and lower for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users (vs non-PrEP users; aOR: 0.32 and aOR: 0.23, respectively). Less unmet STI testing need was observed among HIV-positive participants (vs HIV-negative/unknown; aOR: 0.63), and trans and non-binary participants (vs cisgender male; aOR: 0.34). Between 2017 (reference) and 2021, reported sexual risk behaviours increased: ≥1 recent new male sex partner (72.1%-81.1%, aOR: 1.71) and ≥2 recent CAS partners (30.2%-48.5%, aOR: 2.22). Reporting recent STI testing was greater in 2021 (37.5%-42.6%, aOR: 1.34) but not recent HIV testing, and there was no significant change over time in unmet STI (39.2% vs 43.7%) and HIV (32.9% vs 39.0%) testing need. DISCUSSION: Comparable community surveys suggest that UK resident GBMSM may have engaged in more sexual risk behaviours in late 2021 than pre-pandemic. While there was no evidence of reduced STI/HIV service access during this time, there remained considerable unmet STI/HIV testing need

Difficulty accessing condoms because of the COVID-19 pandemic reported by gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men in the UK: findings from a large, cross-sectional, online survey.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 restrictions severely reduced face-to-face sexual health services, an important access point for condoms. We examine whether gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) in the UK had difficulty accessing condoms during the first year of the pandemic, and if so, which groups were most affected. METHODS: Questions about difficulty accessing condoms were asked as part of a short, online cross-sectional survey of GBMSM undertaken November/December 2021, recruited via social media and Grindr. Eligible participants were UK-resident GBMSM (cis/trans/gender-diverse person assigned male at birth [AMAB]), aged ≥16 years who were sexually active (reported sex with men in the last year). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine if and how reporting this outcome varied by key sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors independent of the potential confounding effect of numbers of new male sex partners. RESULTS: Of all participants (N = 1039), 7.4% (n = 77) reported difficulty accessing condoms due to the pandemic. This was higher among younger GBMSM (aged 16-29 years vs. ≥45; 12.8% vs. 4.9%; aOR: 2.78); trans/gender-diverse AMAB participants (vs. cis gender males; 24.4% vs. 6.6%; aOR = 4.86); bisexually-identifying participants (vs. gay-identifying; 11.1% vs. 6.5%; aOR = 1.78); and those without degree level education (vs. having a degree; 9.8% vs. 5.6%; aOR = 2.01). CONCLUSIONS: A minority of sexually active GBMSM reported difficulty accessing condoms because of the pandemic, however, this was more common amongst those who already experience a disproportionate burden of poor sexual health. Interventions are needed to address these inequalities in accessing this important primary STI/HIV prevention measure

COVID-19 infection and vaccination uptake in men and gender-diverse people who have sex with men in the UK: analyses of a large, online community cross-sectional survey (RiiSH-COVID) undertaken November-December 2021.

BACKGROUND: Men and gender-diverse people who have sex with men are disproportionately affected by health conditions associated with increased risk of severe illness due to COVID-19 infection. METHODS: An online cross-sectional survey of men and gender-diverse people who have sex with men in the UK recruited via social networking and dating applications from 22 November-12 December 2021. Eligible participants included self-identifying men, transgender women, or gender-diverse individuals assigned male at birth (AMAB), aged ≥ 16, who were UK residents, and self-reported having had sex with an individual AMAB in the last year. We calculated self-reported COVID-19 test-positivity, proportion reporting long COVID, and COVID-19 vaccination uptake anytime from pandemic start to survey completion (November/December 2021). Logistic regression was used to assess sociodemographic, clinical, and behavioural characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) test positivity and complete vaccination (≥ 2 vaccine doses). RESULTS: Among 1,039 participants (88.1% white, median age 41 years [interquartile range: 31-51]), 18.6% (95% CI: 16.3%-21.1%) reported COVID-19 test positivity, 8.3% (95% CI: 6.7%-10.1%) long COVID, and 94.5% (95% CI: 93.3%-96.1%) complete COVID-19 vaccination through late 2021. In multivariable models, COVID-19 test positivity was associated with UK country of residence (aOR: 2.22 [95% CI: 1.26-3.92], England vs outside England) and employment (aOR: 1.55 [95% CI: 1.01-2.38], current employment vs not employed). Complete COVID-19 vaccination was associated with age (aOR: 1.04 [95% CI: 1.01-1.06], per increasing year), gender (aOR: 0.26 [95% CI: 0.09-0.72], gender minority vs cisgender), education (aOR: 2.11 [95% CI: 1.12-3.98], degree-level or higher vs below degree-level), employment (aOR: 2.07 [95% CI: 1.08-3.94], current employment vs not employed), relationship status (aOR: 0.50 [95% CI: 0.25-1.00], single vs in a relationship), COVID-19 infection history (aOR: 0.47 [95% CI: 0.25-0.88], test positivity or self-perceived infection vs no history), known HPV vaccination (aOR: 3.32 [95% CI: 1.43-7.75]), and low self-worth (aOR: 0.29 [95% CI: 0.15-0.54]). CONCLUSIONS: In this community sample, COVID-19 vaccine uptake was high overall, though lower among younger age-groups, gender minorities, and those with poorer well-being. Efforts are needed to limit COVID-19 related exacerbation of health inequalities in groups who already experience a greater burden of poor health relative to other men who have sex with men

A quantum crystallographic approach to short hydrogen bonds

In this work we use high-resolution synchrotron X-ray diffraction for electron density mapping, in conjunction with ab initio modelling, to study short O—H⋯O and O+—H⋯O− hydrogen bonds whose behaviour is known to be tuneable by temperature. The short hydrogen bonds have donor–acceptor distances in the region of 2.45 Å and are formed in substituted urea and organic acid molecular complexes of N,N′-dimethylurea oxalic acid 2 : 1 (1), N,N-dimethylurea 2,4-dinitrobenzoate 1 : 1 (2) and N,N-dimethylurea 3,5-dinitrobenzoic acid 2 : 2 (3). From the combined analyses, these complexes are found to fall within the salt-cocrystal continuum and exhibit short hydrogen bonds that can be characterised as both strong and electrostatic (1, 3) or very strong with a significant covalent contribution (2). An additional charge assisted component is found to be important in distinguishing the relatively uncommon O—H⋯O pseudo-covalent interaction from a typical strong hydrogen bond. The electron density is found to be sensitive to the extent of static proton transfer, presenting it as a useful parameter in the study of the salt–cocrystal continuum. From complementary calculated hydrogen atom potentials, we attribute changes in proton position to the molecular environment. Calculated potentials also show zero barrier to proton migration, forming an ‘energy slide’ between the donor and acceptor atoms. The better fundamental understanding of the short hydrogen bond in the ‘zone of fluctuation’ presented in a salt-cocrystal continuum, enabled by studies like this, provide greater insight into their related properties and can have implications in the regulation of pharmaceutical materials