Tornadoes and related damage costs: statistical modelling with a semi-Markov approach

We propose a statistical approach to modelling for predicting and simulating occurrences of tornadoes and accumulated cost distributions over a time interval. This is achieved by modelling the tornado intensity, measured with the Fujita scale, as a stochastic process. Since the Fujita scale divides tornado intensity into six states, it is possible to model the tornado intensity by using Markov and semi-Markov models. We demonstrate that the semi-Markov approach is able to reproduce the duration effect that is detected in tornado occurrence. The superiority of the semi-Markov model as compared to the Markov chain model is also affirmed by means of a statistical test of hypothesis. As an application, we compute the expected value and the variance of the costs generated by the tornadoes over a given time interval in a given area. The paper contributes to the literature by demonstrating that semi-Markov models represent an effective tool for physical analysis of tornadoes as well as for the estimation of the economic damages to human things

Doppler velocimetry of spin propagation in a two-dimensional electron gas

Controlling the flow of electrons by manipulation of their spin is a key to the development of spin-based electronics. While recent demonstrations of electrical-gate control in spin-transistor configurations show great promise, operation at room temperature remains elusive. Further progress requires a deeper understanding of the propagation of spin polarization, particularly in the high mobility semiconductors used for devices. Here we report the application of Doppler velocimetry to resolve the motion of spin-polarized electrons in GaAs quantum wells driven by a drifting Fermi sea. We find that the spin mobility tracks the high electron mobility precisely as a function of T. However, we also observe that the coherent precession of spins driven by spin-orbit interaction, which is essential for the operation of a broad class of spin logic devices, breaks down at temperatures above 150 K for reasons that are not understood theoretically

Accelerated expansion from ghost-free bigravity: a statistical analysis with improved generality

We study the background cosmology of the ghost-free, bimetric theory of gravity. We perform an extensive statistical analysis of the model using both frequentist and Bayesian frameworks and employ the constraints on the expansion history of the Universe from the observations of supernovae, the cosmic microwave background and the large scale structure to estimate the model's parameters and test the goodness of the fits. We explore the parameter space of the model with nested sampling to find the best-fit chi-square, obtain the Bayesian evidence, and compute the marginalized posteriors and mean likelihoods. We mainly focus on a class of sub-models with no explicit cosmological constant (or vacuum energy) term to assess the ability of the theory to dynamically cause a late-time accelerated expansion. The model behaves as standard gravity without a cosmological constant at early times, with an emergent extra contribution to the energy density that converges to a cosmological constant in the far future. The model can in most cases yield very good fits and is in perfect agreement with the data. This is because many points in the parameter space of the model exist that give rise to time-evolution equations that are effectively very similar to those of the $\Lambda$CDM. This similarity makes the model compatible with observations as in the $\Lambda$CDM case, at least at the background level. Even though our results indicate a slightly better fit for the $\Lambda$CDM concordance model in terms of the $p$-value and evidence, none of the models is statistically preferred to the other. However, the parameters of the bigravity model are in general degenerate. A similar but perturbative analysis of the model as well as more data will be required to break the degeneracies and constrain the parameters, in case the model will still be viable compared to the $\Lambda$CDM.Comment: 42 pages, 9 figures; typos corrected in equations (2.12), (2.13), (3.7), (3.8) and (3.9); more discussions added (footnotes 5, 8, 10 and 13) and abstract, sections 4.2, 4.3 and 5 (conclusions) modified in response to referee's comments; references added; acknowledgements modified; all results completely unchanged; matches version accepted for publication in JHE

The AFLOW Fleet for Materials Discovery

The traditional paradigm for materials discovery has been recently expanded to incorporate substantial data driven research. With the intent to accelerate the development and the deployment of new technologies, the AFLOW Fleet for computational materials design automates high-throughput first principles calculations, and provides tools for data verification and dissemination for a broad community of users. AFLOW incorporates different computational modules to robustly determine thermodynamic stability, electronic band structures, vibrational dispersions, thermo-mechanical properties and more. The AFLOW data repository is publicly accessible online at aflow.org, with more than 1.7 million materials entries and a panoply of queryable computed properties. Tools to programmatically search and process the data, as well as to perform online machine learning predictions, are also available.Comment: 14 pages, 8 figure

Emergency Portacaval Shunt Versus Rescue Portacaval Shunt in a Randomized Controlled Trial of Emergency Treatment of Acutely Bleeding Esophageal Varices in Cirrhosis—Part 3

Emergency treatment of bleeding esophageal varices in cirrhosis is of singular importance because of the high mortality rate. Emergency portacaval shunt is rarely used today because of the belief, unsubstantiated by long-term randomized trials, that it causes frequent portal-systemic encephalopathy and liver failure. Consequently, portacaval shunt has been relegated solely to salvage therapy when endoscopic and pharmacologic therapies have failed. Question: Is the regimen of endoscopic sclerotherapy with rescue portacaval shunt for failure to control bleeding varices superior to emergency portacaval shunt? A unique opportunity to answer this question was provided by a randomized controlled trial of endoscopic sclerotherapy versus emergency portacaval shunt conducted from 1988 to 2005. Unselected consecutive cirrhotic patients with acute bleeding esophageal varices were randomized to endoscopic sclerotherapy (n = 106) or emergency portacaval shunt (n = 105). Diagnostic workup was completed and treatment was initiated within 8 h. Failure of endoscopic sclerotherapy was defined by strict criteria and treated by rescue portacaval shunt (n = 50) whenever possible. Ninety-six percent of patients had more than 10 years of follow-up or until death. Comparison of emergency portacaval shunt and endoscopic sclerotherapy followed by rescue portacaval shunt showed the following differences in measurements of outcomes: (1) survival after 5 years (72% versus 22%), 10 years (46% versus 16%), and 15 years (46% versus 0%); (2) median post-shunt survival (6.18 versus 1.99 years); (3) mean requirements of packed red blood cell units (17.85 versus 27.80); (4) incidence of recurrent portal-systemic encephalopathy (15% versus 43%); (5) 5-year change in Child’s class showing improvement (59% versus 19%) or worsening (8% versus 44%); (6) mean quality of life points in which lower is better (13.89 versus 27.89); and (7) mean cost of care per year ($39,200 versus$216,700). These differences were highly significant in favor of emergency portacaval shunt (all p < 0.001). Emergency portacaval shunt was strikingly superior to endoscopic sclerotherapy as well as to the combination of endoscopic sclerotherapy and rescue portacaval shunt in regard to all outcome measures, specifically bleeding control, survival, incidence of portal-systemic encephalopathy, improvement in liver function, quality of life, and cost of care. These results strongly support the use of emergency portacaval shunt as the first line of emergency treatment of bleeding esophageal varices in cirrhosis

High Mortality of Pneumonia in Cirrhotic Patients with Ascites

[[abstract]]Background Cirrhotic patients with ascites are prone to develop various infectious diseases. This study aimed to evaluate the occurrence and effect of major infectious diseases on the mortality of cirrhotic patients with ascites. Methods We reviewed de-identified patient data from the National Health Insurance Database, derived from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program, to enroll 4,576 cirrhotic patients with ascites, who were discharged from Taiwan hospitals between January 1, 2004 and June 30, 2004. We collected patients’ demographic and clinical data, and reviewed diagnostic codes to determine infectious diseases and comorbid disorders of their hospitalizations. Patients were divided into an infection group and non-infection group and hazard ratios (HR) were determined for specific infectious diseases. Results Of the total 4,576 cirrhotic patients with ascites, 1,294 (28.2%) were diagnosed with infectious diseases during hospitalization. The major infectious diseases were spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) (645, 49.8%), urinary tract infection (151, 11.7%), and pneumonia (100, 7.7%). After adjusting for patients’ age, gender, and other comorbid disorders, the HRs of infectious diseases for 30-day and 90-day mortality of cirrhotic patients with ascites were 1.81 (1.54-2.11) and 1.60 (1.43-1.80) respectively, compared to those in the non-infection group. The adjusted HRs of pneumonia, urinary tract infection (UTI), spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), and sepsis without specific focus (SWSF) were 2.95 (2.05-4.25), 1.32 (0.86-2.05), 1.77 (1.45-2.17), and 2.19 (1.62-2.96) for 30-day mortality, and 2.57 (1.93-3.42), 1.36 (1.01-1.82), 1.51 (1.29-1.75), and 2.13 (1.70-2.66) for 90-day mortality, compared to those in the non-infection group. Conclusion Infectious diseases increased 30-day and 90-day mortality of cirrhotic patients with ascites. Among all infectious diseases identified, pneumonia carried the highest risk for mortality.[[notice]]補正完畢[[incitationindex]]SCI[[booktype]]電子

Diagnostic, prognostic and predictive value of cell-free miRNAs in prostate cancer : A systematic review

Publisher Copyright: © 2016 Endzeliņš et al.Prostate cancer, the second most frequently diagnosed cancer in males worldwide, is estimated to be diagnosed in 1.1 million men per year. Introduction of PSA testing substantially improved early detection of prostate cancer, however it also led to overdiagnosis and subsequent overtreatment of patients with an indolent disease. Treatment outcome and management of prostate cancer could be improved by the development of non-invasive biomarker assays that aid in increasing the sensitivity and specificity of prostate cancer screening, help to distinguish aggressive from indolent disease and guide therapeutic decisions. Prostate cancer cells release miRNAs into the bloodstream, where they exist incorporated into ribonucleoprotein complexes or extracellular vesicles. Later, cell-free miRNAs have been found in various other biofluids. The initial RNA sequencing studies suggested that most of the circulating cell-free miRNAs in healthy individuals are derived from blood cells, while specific disease-associated miRNA signatures may appear in the circulation of patients affected with various diseases, including cancer. This raised a hope that cell-free miRNAs may serve as non-invasive biomarkers for prostate cancer. Indeed, a number of cell-free miRNAs that potentially may serve as diagnostic, prognostic or predictive biomarkers have been discovered in blood or other biofluids of prostate cancer patients and need to be validated in appropriately designed longitudinal studies and clinical trials. In this review, we systematically summarise studies investigating cell-free miRNAs in biofluids of prostate cancer patients and discuss the utility of the identified biomarkers in various clinical scenarios. Furthermore, we discuss the possible mechanisms of miRNA release into biofluids and outline the biological questions and technical challenges that have arisen from these studies.publishersversionPeer reviewe