Turnout Intention and Social Networks

How can networking affect the turnout in an election? We present a simple model to explain turnout as a result of a dynamic process of formation of the intention to vote within Erdös-Renyi random networks. Citizens have fixed preferences for one of two parties and are embedded in a given social network. They decide whether or not to vote on the basis of the attitude of their immediate contacts. They may simply follow the behavior of the majority (followers) or make an adaptive local calculus of voting (Downsian behavior). So they either have the intention of voting when the majority of their neighbors are willing to vote too, or they vote when they perceive in their social neighborhood that elections are "close". We study the long run average turnout, interpreted as the actual turnout observed in an election. Depending on the combination of values of the two key parameters, the average connectivity and the probability of behaving as a follower or in a Downsian fashion, the system exhibits monostability (zero turnout), bistability (zero turnout and either moderate or high turnout) or tristability (zero, moderate and high turnout). This means, in particular, that for a wide range of values of both parameters, we obtain realistic turnout rates, i.e. between 50% and 90%.turnout, social networks, adaptative behavior

Evolutionary game theory: Temporal and spatial effects beyond replicator dynamics

Evolutionary game dynamics is one of the most fruitful frameworks for studying evolution in different disciplines, from Biology to Economics. Within this context, the approach of choice for many researchers is the so-called replicator equation, that describes mathematically the idea that those individuals performing better have more offspring and thus their frequency in the population grows. While very many interesting results have been obtained with this equation in the three decades elapsed since it was first proposed, it is important to realize the limits of its applicability. One particularly relevant issue in this respect is that of non-mean-field effects, that may arise from temporal fluctuations or from spatial correlations, both neglected in the replicator equation. This review discusses these temporal and spatial effects focusing on the non-trivial modifications they induce when compared to the outcome of replicator dynamics. Alongside this question, the hypothesis of linearity and its relation to the choice of the rule for strategy update is also analyzed. The discussion is presented in terms of the emergence of cooperation, as one of the current key problems in Biology and in other disciplines.Comment: Review, 48 pages, 26 figure

Nonlinear wave propagation in disordered media

We briefly review the state-of-the-art of research on nonlinear wave propagation in disordered media. The paper is intended to provide the non-specialist reader with a flavor of this active field of physics. Firstly, a general introduction to the subject is made. We describe the basic models and the ways to study disorder in connection with them. Secondly, analytical and numerical techniques suitable for this purpose are outlined. We summarize their features and comment on their respective advantages, drawbacks and applicability conditions. Thirdly, the Nonlinear Klein-Gordon and Schrbdinger equations are chosen as specific examples. We collect a number of results that are representative of the phenomena arising from the competition between nonlinearity and disorder. The review is concluded with some remarks on open questions, main current trends and possible further developments.This work has been supported in part by the C.I.C. y T. (Spain) under project MAT90-0S44. A S. was also supported by fellowships from the Universidad Complutense and the Ministerio de Educacion y Ciencia.Publicad

Time Scales in Evolutionary Dynamics

Evolutionary game theory has traditionally assumed that all individuals in a population interact with each other between reproduction events. We show that eliminating this restriction by explicitly considering the time scales of interaction and selection leads to dramatic changes in the outcome of evolution. Examples include the selection of the inefficient strategy in the Harmony and Stag-Hunt games, and the disappearance of the coexistence state in the Snowdrift game. Our results hold for any population size and in the presence of a background of fitness.Comment: Final version with minor changes, accepted for publication in Physical Review Letter