Linking anthropogenic resources to wildlife-pathogen dynamics: a review and meta-analysis

Urbanisation and agriculture cause declines for many wildlife, but some species benefit from novelresources, especially food, provided in human-dominated habitats. Resulting shifts in wildlife ecol-ogy can alter infectious disease dynamics and create opportunities for cross-species transmission,yet predicting host–pathogen responses to resource provisioning is challenging. Factors enhancingtransmission, such as increased aggregation, could be offset by better host immunity due toimproved nutrition. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to show that food provisioningresults in highly heterogeneous infection outcomes that depend on pathogen type and anthropo-genic food source. We also find empirical support for behavioural and immune mechanismsthrough which human-provided resources alter host exposure and tolerance to pathogens. Areview of recent theoretical models of resource provisioning and infection dynamics shows thatchanges in host contact rates and immunity produce strong non-linear responses in pathogen inva-sion and prevalence. By integrating results of our meta-analysis back into a theoretical frame-work, we find provisioning amplifies pathogen invasion under increased host aggregation andtolerance, but reduces transmission if provisioned food decreases dietary exposure to parasites.These results carry implications for wildlife disease management and highlight areas for futurework, such as how resource shifts might affect virulence evolution

The influence of risk perception in epidemics: a cellular agent model

Our work stems from the consideration that the spreading of a disease is modulated by the individual's perception of the infected neighborhood and his/her strategy to avoid being infected as well. We introduced a general ``cellular agent'' model that accounts for a hetereogeneous and variable network of connections. The probability of infection is assumed to depend on the perception that an individual has about the spreading of the disease in her local neighborhood and on broadcasting media. In the one-dimensional homogeneous case the model reduces to the DK one, while for long-range coupling the dynamics exhibits large fluctuations that may lead to the complete extinction of the disease

Density-dependent effects on the weight of female Ascaris lumbricoides infections of humans and its impact on patterns of egg production

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>Ascaris lumbricoides </it>exhibits density-dependent egg production, a process which has a marked impact on both the transmission dynamics and the stability of the parasite population. Evidence suggests that the egg production of female <it>Ascaris </it>is also associated with the size of the worm. If worm size is mediated by density-dependent processes then the size of female worms may have a causal impact upon patterns of <it>Ascaris </it>egg production.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We analyse data collected from a cohort of human hosts, and demonstrate that the per host mean weight (a proxy for size) of female <it>Ascaris </it>is dependent on the number of infecting females (worm burden) following a pattern of initial facilitation followed by limitation. Applying a negative binomial (NB) generalized linear model (GLM) and a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model we confirm that the per host female mean weight is significantly associated with per host egg production. Despite these associations, the mean weight of female <it>Ascaris </it>has little causal impact on patterns of density-dependent egg output. The ZINB model is able to account for the disproportionately large number of zero egg counts within the data and is shown to be a consistently better fit than the NB model. The probability of observing a zero egg count is demonstrated as being negatively associated with both female worm burden and female mean weight.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The mean weight of female <it>Ascaris </it>is statistically significantly associated with egg output, and follows a consistent pattern of facilitation preceding limitation with increasing female worm burden. Despite these relationships, incorporation of female <it>Ascaris </it>mean weight into models of egg output has little effect on patterns of density dependence. The ZINB model is a superior fit to the data than the NB model and provides additional information regarding the mechanisms that result in a zero egg count. The ZINB model is shown to be a useful tool for the analysis of individual-based egg output data.</p

Early perceptions of an epidemic

This article surveys some descriptions of the Fore people made on early contact in the 1950s by patrol officers, social anthropologists and medical doctors. Sorcery accusations and cannibalism initially impressed these outside observers, though gradually they came to realize that a strange and fatal condition called kuru was a major affliction of the Fore, especially women and children. Fore attributed kuru to sorcery, anthropologists speculated on psychosomatic causes and medical officers began to wonder if it was a mysterious encephalitis

Black Hole Entropy is Noether Charge

We consider a general, classical theory of gravity in $n$ dimensions, arising from a diffeomorphism invariant Lagrangian. In any such theory, to each vector field, $\xi^a$, on spacetime one can associate a local symmetry and, hence, a Noether current $(n-1)$-form, ${\bf j}$, and (for solutions to the field equations) a Noether charge $(n-2)$-form, ${\bf Q}$. Assuming only that the theory admits stationary black hole solutions with a bifurcate Killing horizon, and that the canonical mass and angular momentum of solutions are well defined at infinity, we show that the first law of black hole mechanics always holds for perturbations to nearby stationary black hole solutions. The quantity playing the role of black hole entropy in this formula is simply $2 \pi$ times the integral over $\Sigma$ of the Noether charge $(n-2)$-form associated with the horizon Killing field, normalized so as to have unit surface gravity. Furthermore, we show that this black hole entropy always is given by a local geometrical expression on the horizon of the black hole. We thereby obtain a natural candidate for the entropy of a dynamical black hole in a general theory of gravity. Our results show that the validity of the ``second law" of black hole mechanics in dynamical evolution from an initially stationary black hole to a final stationary state is equivalent to the positivity of a total Noether flux, and thus may be intimately related to the positive energy properties of the theory. The relationship between the derivation of our formula for black hole entropy and the derivation via ``Euclidean methods" also is explained.Comment: 16 pages, EFI 93-4

Evolution of virulence: triggering host inflammation allows invading pathogens to exclude competitors.

Virulence is generally considered to benefit parasites by enhancing resource-transfer from host to pathogen. Here, we offer an alternative framework where virulent immune-provoking behaviours and enhanced immune resistance are joint tactics of invading pathogens to eliminate resident competitors (transferring resources from resident to invading pathogen). The pathogen wins by creating a novel immunological challenge to which it is already adapted. We analyse a general ecological model of 'proactive invasion' where invaders not adapted to a local environment can succeed by changing it to one where they are better adapted than residents. However, the two-trait nature of the 'proactive' strategy (provocation of, and adaptation to environmental change) presents an evolutionary conundrum, as neither trait alone is favoured in a homogenous host population. We show that this conundrum can be resolved by allowing for host heterogeneity. We relate our model to emerging empirical findings on immunological mediation of parasite competition