Temporal effects in trend prediction: identifying the most popular nodes in the future

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes' recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail

Light effects on seedling growth in simulated forest canopy gaps vary across species from different successional stages

Tropical forests continue to suffer from various kinds of disturbances in the Anthropocene. An immediate impact of disturbances on forest ecosystems is the creation of numerous large and small canopy gaps, which dramatically affect forest structure and function. Yet, we know little about the effect of canopy gaps on forest successional trajectory. More specifically, the responses of seedlings from different successional stages to increased light intensity under large and small canopy gaps in understory remain unclear. In this study, dominant tree seedlings from early-, mid-, and late-successional stages were selected, respectively from a tropical montane forest in Hainan Island, China to study their growth rate, biomass and traits. Our results showed that the light condition under small canopy gaps (SG, 10–15% of full sunlight) and large canopy gaps (LG, 40–50% of full sunlight) induced greater increment of relative growth rates for seedlings from early- and mid-successional stages relative to that in late-successional stage. Both SG and LG also significantly increased photosynthesis rate, leaf area (LA), light saturation point (LSP), root mass ratio (RMR) and root: shoot ratio, but decreased specific leaf area (SLA) of seedlings across successional stages. Tree seedlings from the earlysuccessional stage displayed the greatest decrease in leaf mass ratio, increase in LA, LSP, and RMR, in comparison to those from mid- and late- successional stages. Light condition and SLA were the most important factors for seedlings’ relative growth rate across successional stages. SLA connected the interaction between the light condition and successional stage on seedlings’ growth, thereby jointly explaining the 93% variation of seedlings’ growth, combining with area-based light saturated rate of CO2 assimilation. Our study highlights the distinct effect of disturbance-induced canopy gaps on seedling regeneration in the understory in tropical forest due to the variation of light intensity. We suspect that the seedlings from late-successional stage will recover relatively slow after disturbances causing canopy losses, which can have detrimental impacts on structure feature an

Effect of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation on cancer incidence, non-vascular death, and total mortality: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Omega-3 fatty acids are known to prevent cardiac death. However, previous observational studies have suggested that omega-3 fatty acids are associated with cancer risk in adults. We conducted a meta-analysis based on randomized controlled trials to evaluate the effect of omega-3 fatty acids on the risk of cancer incidence, nonvascular death, and total mortality. METHODS: In February 2013, we performed electronic searches in PubMed, EmBase, and the Cochrane Library to identify randomized controlled trials on cancer incidence, nonvascular death, and total mortality. Relative risk (RR) was used to measure the effect of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation on the risk of cancer incidence, nonvascular death, and total mortality using a random-effect model. The analysis was further stratified by factors that could affect the treatment effects. RESULTS: Of the 8,746 identified articles, we included 19 trials reporting data on 68,954 individuals. These studies reported 1,039 events of cancer, 2,439 events of nonvascular death, and 7,025 events of total mortality. Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation had no effect on cancer incidence (RR, 1.10; 95% CI: 0.97–1.24; P = 0.12), nonvascular death (RR, 1.00; 95% CI: 0.93–1.08; P = 1.00), or total mortality (RR, 0.95; 95% CI: 0.88–1.03; P = 0.24) when compared to a placebo. Subgroup analysis indicated that omega-3 fatty acid supplementation was associated with a reduction in total mortality risk if the proportion of men in the study population was more than 80%, or participants received alpha-linolenic acid. CONCLUSIONS: Omega-3 fatty acid supplementation does not have an effect on cancer incidence, nonvascular death, or total mortality

Highly accurate recommendation algorithm based on high-order similarities

In this Letter, we introduce a modified collaborative filtering (MCF) algorithm, which has remarkably higher accuracy than the standard collaborative filtering. In the MCF, instead of the standard Pearson coefficient, the user-user similarities are obtained by a diffusion process. Furthermore, by considering the second order similarities, we design an effective algorithm that depresses the influence of mainstream preferences. The corresponding algorithmic accuracy, measured by the ranking score, is further improved by 24.9% in the optimal case. In addition, two significant criteria of algorithmic performance, diversity and popularity, are also taken into account. Numerical results show that the algorithm based on second order similarity can outperform the MCF simultaneously in all three criteria