How many independent bets are there?

The benefits of portfolio diversification is a central tenet implicit to modern financial theory and practice. Linked to diversification is the notion of breadth. Breadth is correctly thought of as the number of in- dependent bets available to an investor. Conventionally applications us- ing breadth frequently assume only the number of separate bets. There may be a large discrepancy between these two interpretations. We uti- lize a simple singular-value decomposition (SVD) and the Keiser-Gutman stopping criterion to select the integer-valued effective dimensionality of the correlation matrix of returns. In an emerging market such as South African we document an estimated breadth that is considerably lower than anticipated. This lack of diversification may be because of market concentration, exposure to the global commodity cycle and local currency volatility. We discuss some practical extensions to a more statistically correct interpretation of market breadth, and its theoretical implications for both global and domestic investors.Comment: Less technical rewrite. 12 Pages, 6 Figures (.eps

Genetic steps to organ laterality in zebrafish.

All internal organs are asymmetric along the left-right axis. Here we report a genetic screen to discover mutations which perturb organ laterality. Our particular focus is upon whether, and how, organs are linked to each other as they achieve their laterally asymmetric positions. We generated mutations by ENU mutagenesis and examined F3 progeny using a cocktail of probes that reveal early primordia of heart, gut, liver and pancreas. From the 750 genomes examined, we isolated seven recessive mutations which affect the earliest left-right positioning of one or all of the organs. None of these mutations caused discernable defects elsewhere in the embryo at the stages examined. This is in contrast to those mutations we reported previously (Chen et al., 1997) which, along with left-right abnormalities, cause marked perturbation in gastrulation, body form or midline structures. We find that the mutations can be classified on the basis of whether they perturb relationships among organ laterality. In Class 1 mutations, none of the organs manifest any left-right asymmetry. The heart does not jog to the left and normally leftpredominant BMP4 in the early heart tube remains symmetric. The gut tends to remain midline. There frequently is a remarkable bilateral duplication of liver and pancreas. Embryos with Class 2 mutations have organotypic asymmetry but, in any given embryo, organ positions can be normal, reversed or randomized. Class 3 reveals a hitherto unsuspected gene that selectively affects laterality of heart. We find that visceral organ positions are predicted by the direction of the preceding cardiac jog. We interpret this as suggesting that normally there is linkage between cardiac and visceral organ laterality. Class 1 mutations, we suggest, effectively remove the global laterality signals, with the consequence that organ positions are effectively symmetrical. Embryos with Class 2 mutations do manifest linkage among organs, but it may be reversed, suggesting that the global signals may be present but incorrectly orientated in some of the embryos. That laterality decisions of organs may be independently perturbed, as in the Class 3 mutation, indicates that there are distinctive pathways for reception and organotypic interpretation of the global signals

Electroencephalogram variability in patients with cirrhosis associates with the presence and severity of hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The outputs of physiological systems fluctuate in a complex manner even under resting conditions. Decreased variability or increased regularity of these outputs is documented in several disease states. Changes are observed in the spatial and temporal configuration of the electroencephalogram (EEG) in patients with hepatic encephalopathy (HE), but there is no information on the variability of the EEG signal in this condition. The aim of this study was to measure and characterize EEG variability in patients with cirrhosis and to determine its relationship to neuropsychiatric status. METHODS: Eyes-closed, awake EEGs were obtained from 226 patients with cirrhosis, classified, using clinical and psychometric criteria, as neuropsychiatrically unimpaired (n=127) or as having minimal (n=21) or overt (n=78) HE, and from a reference population of 137 healthy controls. Analysis of EEG signal variability was undertaken using continuous wavelet transform and sample entropy. RESULTS: EEG variability was reduced in the patients with cirrhosis compared with the reference population (coefficient of variation: 21.2% [19.3-23.4] vs. 22.4% [20.8-24.5]; p<0.001). A significant association was observed between EEG variability and neuropsychiatric status; thus, variability was increased in the patients with minimal HE compared with their neuropsychiatrically unimpaired counterparts (sample entropy: 0.98 [0.87-1.14] vs. 0.83 [0.75-0.95]; p=0.02), and compared with the patients with overt HE (sample entropy: 0.98 [0.87-1.14] vs. 0.82 [0.71-1.01]; p=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Variability of the EEG is associated with both the presence and severity of HE. This novel finding may provide new insights into the pathophysiology of HE and provide a means for monitoring patients over time. LAY SUMMARY: Decreased variability or increased regularity of physiological systems is documented in several disease states. Variability of the electroencephalogram was found to be associated with both the presence and severity of brain dysfunction in patients with chronic liver disease

Measurement of hepatic insulin sensitivity early after the bypass of the proximal small bowel in humans

Objective: Unlike gastric banding or sleeve gastrectomy procedures, intestinal bypass procedures, and the Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) in particular, lead to rapid improvements in glycaemia early after surgery. The bypass of the proximal small bowel may have weight loss and even caloric restriction independent glucose-lowering properties on hepatic insulin sensitivity. In this first in humans mechanistic study, we examined this hypothesis by investigating the early effects of the duodeno-jejunal bypass liner (DJBL; GI Dynamics, USA) on the hepatic insulin sensitivity using the gold standard euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp methodology. Method: Seven patients with obesity underwent measurement of hepatic insulin sensitivity at baseline, one week after a low-calorie liquid diet and after a further one week following insertion of the DJBL whilst on the same diet. Results: DJBL did not improve the insulin sensitivity of hepatic glucose production (HGP) beyond the improvements achieved with caloric restriction. Conclusions: Caloric restriction may be the predominant driver of early increases in hepatic insulin sensitivity after the endoscopic bypass of the proximal small bowel. The same mechanism may be at play after RYGB and explain, at least in part, the rapid improvements in glycaemia

Leucine-enriched essential amino acid supplementation in mechanically ventilated trauma patients: a feasibility study

Background Critically ill patients lose up to 2% of muscle mass per day. We assessed the feasibility of administering a leucine-enriched essential amino acid (L-EAA) supplement to mechanically ventilated trauma patients with the aim of assessing the effect on skeletal muscle mass and function. Methods A randomised feasibility study was performed over six months in intensive care (ICU). Patients received 5 g L-EAA five times per day in addition to standard feed (L-EAA group) or standard feed only (control group) for up to 14 days. C-reactive protein, albumin, IL-6, IL-10, urinary 3-MH, nitrogen balance, protein turnover ([1-13C] leucine infusion), muscle depth change (ultrasound), functional change (Katz and Barthel indices) and muscle strength Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score to assess ICU Acquired Weakness were measured sequentially. Results Eight patients (9.5% of screened patients) were recruited over six months. L-EAA doses were provided on 91/124 (73%) occasions. Inflammatory and urinary marker data were collected; serial muscle depth measurements were lacking due to short length of stay. Protein turnover studies were performed on five occasions. MRC sum score could not be performed as patients were not able to respond to the screening questions. The Katz and Barthel indices did not change. L-EAA delivery was achievable, but meaningful functional and muscle mass outcome measures require careful consideration in the design of a future randomised controlled trial. Conclusion L-EAA was practical to provide, but we found significant barriers to recruitment and measurement of the chosen outcomes which would need to be addressed in the design of a future, large randomised controlled trial

Combustion in thermonuclear supernova explosions

Type Ia supernovae are associated with thermonuclear explosions of white dwarf stars. Combustion processes convert material in nuclear reactions and release the energy required to explode the stars. At the same time, they produce the radioactive species that power radiation and give rise to the formation of the observables. Therefore, the physical mechanism of the combustion processes, as reviewed here, is the key to understand these astrophysical events. Theory establishes two distinct modes of propagation for combustion fronts: subsonic deflagrations and supersonic detonations. Both are assumed to play an important role in thermonuclear supernovae. The physical nature and theoretical models of deflagrations and detonations are discussed together with numerical implementations. A particular challenge arises due to the wide range of spatial scales involved in these phenomena. Neither the combustion waves nor their interaction with fluid flow and instabilities can be directly resolved in simulations. Substantial modeling effort is required to consistently capture such effects and the corresponding techniques are discussed in detail. They form the basis of modern multidimensional hydrodynamical simulations of thermonuclear supernova explosions. The problem of deflagration-to-detonation transitions in thermonuclear supernova explosions is briefly mentioned.Comment: Author version of chapter for 'Handbook of Supernovae,' edited by A. Alsabti and P. Murdin, Springer. 24 pages, 4 figure

Deceptive body movements reverse spatial cueing in soccer

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.The purpose of the experiments was to analyse the spatial cueing effects of the movements of soccer players executing normal and deceptive (step-over) turns with the ball. Stimuli comprised normal resolution or point-light video clips of soccer players dribbling a football towards the observer then turning right or left with the ball. Clips were curtailed before or on the turn (-160, -80, 0 or +80 ms) to examine the time course of direction prediction and spatial cueing effects. Participants were divided into higher-skilled (HS) and lower-skilled (LS) groups according to soccer experience. In experiment 1, accuracy on full video clips was higher than on point-light but results followed the same overall pattern. Both HS and LS groups correctly identified direction on normal moves at all occlusion levels. For deceptive moves, LS participants were significantly worse than chance and HS participants were somewhat more accurate but nevertheless substantially impaired. In experiment 2, point-light clips were used to cue a lateral target. HS and LS groups showed faster reaction times to targets that were congruent with the direction of normal turns, and to targets incongruent with the direction of deceptive turns. The reversed cueing by deceptive moves coincided with earlier kinematic events than cueing by normal moves. It is concluded that the body kinematics of soccer players generate spatial cueing effects when viewed from an opponent's perspective. This could create a reaction time advantage when anticipating the direction of a normal move. A deceptive move is designed to turn this cueing advantage into a disadvantage. Acting on the basis of advance information, the presence of deceptive moves primes responses in the wrong direction, which may be only partly mitigated by delaying a response until veridical cues emerge

Predicting live birth, preterm and low birth weight infant after in-vitro fertilisation: a prospective study of 144018 treatment cycles

Background The extent to which baseline couple characteristics affect the probability of live birth and adverse perinatal outcomes after assisted conception is unknown. Methods and Findings We utilised the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database to examine the predictors of live birth in all in vitro fertilisation (IVF) cycles undertaken in the UK between 2003 and 2007 (n = 144,018). We examined the potential clinical utility of a validated model that pre-dated the introduction of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) as compared to a novel model. For those treatment cycles that resulted in a live singleton birth (n = 24,226), we determined the associates of potential risk factors with preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. The overall rate of at least one live birth was 23.4 per 100 cycles (95% confidence interval [CI] 23.2–23.7). In multivariable models the odds of at least one live birth decreased with increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, a greater number of previously unsuccessful IVF treatments, use of own oocytes, necessity for a second or third treatment cycle, or if it was not unexplained infertility. The association of own versus donor oocyte with reduced odds of live birth strengthened with increasing age of the mother. A previous IVF live birth increased the odds of future success (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.46–1.71) more than that of a previous spontaneous live birth (OR 1.19, 95% CI 0.99–1.24); p-value for difference in estimate &#60;0.001. Use of ICSI increased the odds of live birth, and male causes of infertility were associated with reduced odds of live birth only in couples who had not received ICSI. Prediction of live birth was feasible with moderate discrimination and excellent calibration; calibration was markedly improved in the novel compared to the established model. Preterm birth and low birth weight were increased if oocyte donation was required and ICSI was not used. Risk of macrosomia increased with advancing maternal age and a history of previous live births. Infertility due to cervical problems was associated with increased odds of all three outcomes—preterm birth, low birth weight, and macrosomia. Conclusions Pending external validation, our results show that couple- and treatment-specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF

An Anti-Human ICAM-1 Antibody Inhibits Rhinovirus-Induced Exacerbations of Lung Inflammation

Human rhinoviruses (HRV) cause the majority of common colds and acute exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Effective therapies are urgently needed, but no licensed treatments or vaccines currently exist. Of the 100 identified serotypes, ∼90% bind domain 1 of human intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) as their cellular receptor, making this an attractive target for development of therapies; however, ICAM-1 domain 1 is also required for host defence and regulation of cell trafficking, principally via its major ligand LFA-1. Using a mouse anti-human ICAM-1 antibody (14C11) that specifically binds domain 1 of human ICAM-1, we show that 14C11 administered topically or systemically prevented entry of two major groups of rhinoviruses, HRV16 and HRV14, and reduced cellular inflammation, pro-inflammatory cytokine induction and virus load in vivo. 14C11 also reduced cellular inflammation and Th2 cytokine/chemokine production in a model of major group HRV-induced asthma exacerbation. Interestingly, 14C11 did not prevent cell adhesion via human ICAM-1/LFA-1 interactions in vitro, suggesting the epitope targeted by 14C11 was specific for viral entry. Thus a human ICAM-1 domain-1-specific antibody can prevent major group HRV entry and induction of airway inflammation in vivo