Smaller sample sizes for phase II trials based on exact tests with actual error rates by trading-off their nominal levels of significance and power

Background: Sample sizes for single-stage phase II clinical trials in the literature are often based on exact (binomial) tests with levels of significance (alpha (α) 80%). This is because there is not always a sample size where α and power are exactly equal to 5% and 80%, respectively. Consequently, the opportunity to trade-off small amounts of α and power for savings in sample sizes may be lost. Methods: Sample-size tables are presented for single-stage phase II trials based on exact tests with actual levels of significance and power. Trade-off in small amounts of α and power allows the researcher to select from several possible designs with potentially smaller sample sizes compared with existing approaches. We provide SAS macro coding and an R function, which for a given treatment difference, allow researchers to examine all possible sample sizes for specified differences are provided. Results: In a single-arm study with P0 (standard treatment)=10% and P1 (new treatment)=20%, and specified α=5% and power=80%, the A’Hern approach yields n=78 (exact α=4.53%, power=80.81%). However, by relaxing α to 5.67% and power to 77.7%, a sample size of 65 can be used (a saving of 13 patients). Interpretation: The approach we describe is especially useful for trials in rare disorders, or for proof-of-concept studies, where it is important to minimise the trial duration and financial costs, particularly in single-arm cancer trials commonly associated with expensive treatment options

Overstating the evidence - double counting in meta-analysis and related problems

Background: The problem of missing studies in meta-analysis has received much attention. Less attention has been paid to the more serious problem of double counting of evidence. Methods: Various problems in overstating the precision of results from meta-analyses are described and illustrated with examples, including papers from leading medical journals. These problems include, but are not limited to, simple double-counting of the same studies, double counting of some aspects of the studies, inappropriate imputation of results, and assigning spurious precision to individual studies. Results: Some suggestions are made as to how the quality and reliability of meta-analysis can be improved. It is proposed that the key to quality in meta-analysis lies in the results being transparent and checkable. Conclusions: Existing quality check lists for meta-analysis do little to encourage an appropriate attitude to combining evidence and to statistical analysis. Journals and other relevant organisations should encourage authors to make data available and make methods explicit. They should also act promptly to withdraw meta-analyses when mistakes are found

First-trimester or second-trimester screening, or both, for Down's syndrome

BACKGROUND: It is uncertain how best to screen pregnant women for the presence of fetal Down's syndrome: to perform first-trimester screening, to perform second-trimester screening, or to use strategies incorporating measurements in both trimesters.METHODS: Women with singleton pregnancies underwent first-trimester combined screening (measurement of nuchal translucency, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A [PAPP-A], and the free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin at 10 weeks 3 days through 13 weeks 6 days of gestation) and second-trimester quadruple screening (measurement of alpha-fetoprotein, total human chorionic gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol, and inhibin A at 15 through 18 weeks of gestation). We compared the results of stepwise sequential screening (risk results provided after each test), fully integrated screening (single risk result provided), and serum integrated screening (identical to fully integrated screening, but without nuchal translucency).RESULTS: First-trimester screening was performed in 38,167 patients; 117 had a fetus with Down's syndrome. At a 5 percent false positive rate, the rates of detection of Down's syndrome were as follows: with first-trimester combined screening, 87 percent, 85 percent, and 82 percent for measurements performed at 11, 12, and 13 weeks, respectively; with second-trimester quadruple screening, 81 percent; with stepwise sequential screening, 95 percent; with serum integrated screening, 88 percent; and with fully integrated screening with first-trimester measurements performed at 11 weeks, 96 percent. Paired comparisons found significant differences between the tests, except for the comparison between serum integrated screening and combined screening.CONCLUSIONS: First-trimester combined screening at 11 weeks of gestation is better than second-trimester quadruple screening but at 13 weeks has results similar to second-trimester quadruple screening. Both stepwise sequential screening and fully integrated screening have high rates of detection of Down's syndrome, with low false positive rates

High prevalence of lung cancer in a surgical cohort of lung cancer patients a decade after smoking cessation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study was designed to assess the prevalence of smoking at time of lung cancer diagnosis in a surgical patient cohort referred for cardiothoracic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective study of lung cancer patients (n = 626) referred to three cardiothoracic surgeons at a tertiary care medical center in Southern California from January 2006 to December 2008. Relationships among years of smoking cessation, smoking status, and tumor histology were analyzed with Chi-square tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Seventy-seven percent (482) had a smoking history while 11.3% (71) were current smokers. The length of smoking cessation to cancer diagnosis was <1 year for 56 (13.6%), 1-10 years for 110 (26.8%), 11-20 years for 87 (21.2%), 21-30 years for 66 (16.1%), 31-40 years for 44 (10.7%), 41-50 years for 40 (9.7%) and 51-60 years for 8 (1.9%). The mean cessation was 18.1 ± 15.7 years (n = 411 former smokers). Fifty-nine percent had stage 1 disease and 68.0% had adenocarcinoma. Squamous cell carcinoma was more prevalent in smokers (15.6% vs. 8.3%, p = 0.028); adenocarcinoma was more prevalent in never-smokers (79.9% versus 64.3%, p = 0.0004). The prevalence of adenocarcinoma varied inversely with pack year (p < 0.0001) and directly with years of smoking cessation (p = 0.0005).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In a surgical lung cancer cohort, the majority of patients were smoking abstinent greater than one decade before the diagnosis of lung cancer.</p

Electronic Cigarette Advertising Impacts Adversely on Smoking Behaviour Within a London Student Cohort: A Cross-Sectional Structured Survey.

INTRODUCTION: In contrast to tobacco smoking, electronic cigarette ("vaping") advertisement had been approved in the United Kingdom (UK) in January 2013. Currently, there are an estimated 3.2 million UK e-cigarette users. The impact of e-cigarette advertisement on tobacco use has not been studied in detail. We hypothesised that e-cigarette advertisement impacts on conventional smoking behaviour. METHODS: A cross-sectional structured survey assessed the impact of e-cigarette advertising on the perceived social acceptability of cigarette and e-cigarette smoking and on using either cigarettes or e-cigarettes (on a scale of 1 to 5/'not at all' to 'a lot'). The survey was administered between January to March 2015 to London university students, before and after viewing 5 UK adverts including a TV commercial. RESULTS: Data were collected from 106 participants (22 ± 2 years, 66% male), comprising cigarette smokers (32%), non-smokers (54%) and ex-smokers (14%). This included vapers (16%), non-vapers (77%) and ex-vapers (7%). After viewing the adverts, smokers (2.6 ± 1.0 vs. 3.8 ± 1.1, p = 0.001) and non-smokers (3.2 ± 0.7 vs. 3.7 ± 0.8, p = 0.007) felt smoking was more socially acceptable, compared to before viewing them. Participants were more likely to try both e-cigarettes (1.90 ± 1.03 to 3.09 ± 1.11, p < 0.001) and conventional cigarettes (1.73 ± 0.83 to 2.27 ± 1.13, p < 0.001) after viewing the adverts compared to before. Vapers were less likely to smoke both an e-cigarette, and a conventional cigarette after viewing the adverts. CONCLUSION: E-cigarette advertising encourages both e-cigarette and conventional cigarette use in young smokers and non-smokers. The adverts increase the social acceptability of smoking without regarding the importance of public health campaigns that champion smoking cessation

First-Trimester or Second-Trimester Screening, or Both, for Down's Syndrome

BACKGROUND It is uncertain how best to screen pregnant women for the presence of fetal Down's syndrome: to perform first-trimester screening, to perform second-trimester screening, or to use strategies incorporating measurements in both trimesters. METHODS Women with singleton pregnancies underwent first-trimester combined screening (measurement of nuchal translucency, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A [PAPP-A], and the free beta subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin at 10 weeks 3 days through 13 weeks 6 days of gestation) and second-trimester quadruple screening (measurement ofalpha-fetoprotein, total human chorionic gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol, and inhibin A at 15 through 18 weeks of gestation). We compared the results of stepwise sequential screening (risk results provided after each test), fully integrated screening (single risk result provided), and serum integrated screening (identical to fully integrated screening, but without nuchal translucency). RESULTS First-trimester screening was performed in 38,167 patients; 117 had a fetus with Down's syndrome. At a 5 percent false positive rate, the rates of detection of Down's syndrome were as follows: with first-trimester combined screening, 87 percent, 85 percent, and 82 percent for measurements performed at 11, 12, and 13 weeks, respectively; with second-trimester quadruple screening, 81 percent; with stepwise sequential screening, 95 percent; with serum integrated screening, 88 percent; and with fully integrated screening with first-trimester measurements performed at 11 weeks, 96 percent. Paired comparisons found significant differences between the tests, except for the comparison between serum integrated screening and combined screening. CONCLUSIONS First-trimester combined screening at 11 weeks of gestation is better than second-trimester quadruple screening but at 13 weeks has results similar to second-trimester quadruple screening. Both stepwise sequential screening and fully integrated screening have high rates of detection ofDown's syndrome, with low false positive rates

Lung cancer risk in never-smokers: a population-based case-control study of epidemiologic risk factors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We conducted a case-control study in the greater Toronto area to evaluate potential lung cancer risk factors including environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure, family history of cancer, indoor air pollution, workplace exposures and history of previous respiratory diseases with special consideration given to never smokers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>445 cases (35% of which were never smokers oversampled by design) between the ages of 20-84 were identified through four major tertiary care hospitals in metropolitan Toronto between 1997 and 2002 and were frequency matched on sex and ethnicity with 425 population controls and 523 hospital controls. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between exposures and lung cancer risk.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Any previous exposure to occupational exposures (OR total population 1.6, 95% CI 1.4-2.1, OR never smokers 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.3), a previous diagnosis of emphysema in the total population (OR 4.8, 95% CI 2.0-11.1) or a first degree family member with a previous cancer diagnosis before age 50 among never smokers (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.0-3.2) were associated with increased lung cancer risk.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Occupational exposures and family history of cancer with young onset were important risk factors among never smokers.</p

Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p