Drivers of grassland loss in Hungary during the post-socialist transformation (1987–1999)

The increase in the speed of land-cover change experienced worldwide is becoming a growing concern. Major socio-economic transitions, such as the breakdown of socialism in Europe, may lead to particularly high rates of landscape transformations. In this paper we examined the loss of semi-natural grasslands in Hungary between 1987 and 1999. We studied the relationship between 9 potential driving forces and the fate of grasslands using logistic GLMs. Grassland loss was found to be very high (1.31 % per year), which is far higher than either before or after this period. The most influential predictors of grassland loss were environmental and landscape characteristics (soil type, area of remnant grassland patches), and the socio-economic context (distance to paved road, and nearest settlement, human population density). Several processes and relationships can only be understood from a historical perspective (e.g. large extent of afforestation, strong decrease of soil water table). Grassland loss during the study period emerged as a consequence of survival strategies of individual farmers seeking adaptation to the changing environmental and socio-economic conditions, and not urbanization and agricultural intensification which are the main underlying drivers for the ongoing landscape transformations in most parts of the developed world. Though globalization increasingly influences local land use decisions , reconstructing and modelling recent landscape changes cannot be done without a proper understanding of local history and culture. Our analysis shows the importance of large-area yet high resolution landscape change research, which may reveal unexpected patterns of land cover change, undetected at coarser scales

On the role of hydrologic processes in soil and landscape evolution modeling: concepts, complications and partial solutions

The ability of water to transport and transform soil materials is one of the main drivers of soil and landscape development. In turn, soil and landscape properties determine how water is distributed in soil landscapes. Understanding the complex dynamics of this co-evolution of soils, landscapes and the hydrological system is fundamental in adapting land management to changes in climate. Soil-Landscape Evolution Models (SLEMs) are used to simulate the development and evolution of soils and landscapes. However, many hydrologic processes, such as preferential flow and subsurface lateral flow, are currently absent in these models. This limits the applicability of SLEMs to improve our understanding of feedbacks in the hydro-pedo-geomorphological system. Implementation of these hydrologic processes in SLEMs faces several complications related to calculation demands, limited methods for linking pedogenic and hydrologic processes, and limited data on quantification of changes in the hydrological system over time. In this contribution, we first briefly review processes and feedbacks in soil-landscape-hydrological systems. Next, we elaborate on the development required to include these processes in SLEMs. We discuss the state-of-the-art knowledge, identify complications, give partial solutions and suggest important future development. The main requirements for incorporating hydrologic processes in SLEMs are: (1) designing a model framework that can deal with varying timescales for different sets of processes, (2) developing and implementing methods for simulating pedogenesis as a function of water flow, (3) improving and implementing knowledge on the evolution and dynamics of soil hydraulic properties over different timescales, and (4) improving the database on temporal changes and dynamics of flow paths.</p