Magnetic local time dependency on cusp ion velocity dispersions in the mid-altitude cusp

Observations of cusp ion velocity dispersions made by the TIMAS instrument on the Polar spacecraft in the mid-altitude cusp during intervals of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) reveal a clear ordering with magnetic local time (MLT). Between 1100 and 1300 MLT the injected ion velocity increased with invariant latitude for 78% of the cusp crossings, between 0900 and 1100 MLT this percentage reduced to 35% and between 1300 and 1500 MLT the percentage reduced to 57%. In contrast similar observations made during intervals of southward IMF revealed no MLT dependency. Between 0900 and 1500 MLT the injected ion velocity increased with invariant latitude for only 17% of the observed cusp crossings. We suggest that the difference in the MLT dependency between northward and southward IMF can be best explained by the different characteristics of polar convection patterns for sub-solar and lobe reconnection

Ecology and geography of avian influenza (HPAI H5N1) transmission in the Middle East and northeastern Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The emerging highly pathogenic avian influenza strain H5N1 ("HPAI-H5N1") has spread broadly in the past decade, and is now the focus of considerable concern. We tested the hypothesis that spatial distributions of HPAI-H5N1 cases are related consistently and predictably to coarse-scale environmental features in the Middle East and northeastern Africa.</p> <p>We used ecological niche models to relate virus occurrences to 8 km resolution digital data layers summarizing parameters of monthly surface reflectance and landform. Predictive challenges included a variety of spatial stratification schemes in which models were challenged to predict case distributions in broadly unsampled areas.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In almost all tests, HPAI-H5N1 cases were indeed occurring under predictable sets of environmental conditions, generally predicted absent from areas with low NDVI values and minimal seasonal variation, and present in areas with a broad range of and appreciable seasonal variation in NDVI values. Although we documented significant predictive ability of our models, even between our study region and West Africa, case occurrences in the Arabian Peninsula appear to follow a distinct environmental regime.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Overall, we documented a variable environmental "fingerprint" for areas suitable for HPAI-H5N1 transmission.</p

The Drinfel'd twisted XYZ model

We construct a factorizing Drinfel'd twist for a face type model equivalent to the XYZ model. Completely symmetric expressions for the operators of the monodromy matrix are obtained.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, second preprint no. added, reference [14] added, typos correcte

"The Bees' needs" : using molecular analysis of bee collected pollen to understand which plants play an important role in honey bee forage

Summary: Honey bees and other pollinators provide essential pollination services to agriculture and the environment; however they are under increasing pressure from changes in land management, disease and climate change. Current mitigation places emphasis on establishing flower meadows to improve nutritional diversity, but preserving what is already in place is also of importance. ‘CSI Pollen’ was a recent European citizen science project coordinated by COLOSS, investigating the diversity of pollen collected by honey bees in many countries across Europe. Volunteer beekeepers sampled pollen from colonies every three weeks during the foraging season over a two to three year period, creating a huge collection of data and samples. A selection of samples collected from 14 Scottish sites during the second year of study in 2015 were analysed by DNA fingerprinting to identify pollen gathered by honey bees at critical points of the colony’s life cycle; some results and potential implications for land use are discussed here

Fifty years of spellchecking

A short history of spellchecking from the late 1950s to the present day, describing its development through dictionary lookup, affix stripping, correction, confusion sets, and edit distance to the use of gigantic databases

Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

State of the California current 2013-14: El niño looming

In 2013, the California current was dominated by strong coastal upwelling and high productivity. Indices of total cumulative upwelling for particular coastal locations reached some of the highest values on record. Chlorophyll a levels were high throughout spring and summer. Catches of upwelling-related fish species were also high. After a moderate drop in upwelling during fall 2013, the California current system underwent a major change in phase. Three major basin-scale indicators, the PDO, the NPGO, and the ENSO-MEI, all changed phase at some point during the winter of 2013/14. The PDO changed to positive values, indicative of warmer waters in the North Pacific; the NPGO to negative values, indicative of lower productivity along the coast; and the MEI to positive values, indicative of an oncoming El Niño. Whereas the majority of the California Current system appears to have transitioned to an El Niño state by August 2014, based on decreases in upwelling and chlorophyll a concentration, and increases in SST, there still remained pockets of moderate upwelling, cold water, and high chlorophyll a biomass at various central coast locations, unlike patterns seen during the more major El Niños (e.g., the 97-98 event). Catches of rockfish, market squid, euphausiids, and juvenile sanddab remained high along the central coast, whereas catches of sardine and anchovy were low throughout the CCS. 2014 appears to be heading towards a moderate El Niño state, with some remaining patchy regions of upwellingdriven productivity along the coast. Superimposed on this pattern, three major regions have experienced possibly non-El Niño-related warming since winter: the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, and offshore of southern California. It is unclear how this warming may interact with the predicted El Niño, but the result will likely be reduced growth or reproduction for many key fisheries species

State of the California current 2012-13: No such thing as an “average” year

This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42°N, but regions to the south, especially 33° to 36°N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys and remote sensing was below average along much of the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages along the coast experienced low abundances in 2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates. However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter 2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod species off northern California was consistent with stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally above average. North of 42°N, salps returned to typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance off central and southern California increased after a period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012. Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated. Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in forage availability. Limited biological data were available for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide indicated an early spring transition, with the strong upwelling persisting into early summer

Associations of sedentary behaviour, physical activity, blood pressure and anthropometric measures with cardiorespiratory fitness in children with cerebral palsy

Background - Children with cerebral palsy (CP) have poor cardiorespiratory fitness in comparison to their peers with typical development, which may be due to low levels of physical activity. Poor cardiorespiratory fitness may contribute to increased cardiometabolic risk. Purpose - The aim of this study was to determine the association between sedentary behaviour, physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness in children with CP. An objective was to determine the association between cardiorespiratory fitness, anthropometric measures and blood pressure in children with CP. Methods- This study included 55 ambulatory children with CP [mean (SD) age 11.3 (0.2) yr, range 6-17 yr; Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS) levels I and II]. Anthropometric measures (BMI, waist circumference and waist-height ratio) and blood pressure were taken. Cardiorespiratory fitness was measured using a 10 m shuttle run test. Children were classified as low, middle and high fitness according to level achieved on the test using reference curves. Physical activity was measured by accelerometry over 7 days. In addition to total activity, time in sedentary behaviour and light, moderate, vigorous, and sustained moderate-to-vigorous activity (≥10 min bouts) were calculated. Results - Multiple regression analyses revealed that vigorous activity (β = 0.339, p<0.01), sustained moderate-to-vigorous activity (β = 0.250, p<0.05) and total activity (β = 0.238, p<0.05) were associated with level achieved on the shuttle run test after adjustment for age, sex and GMFCS level. Children with high fitness spent more time in vigorous activity than children with middle fitness (p<0.05). Shuttle run test level was negatively associated with BMI (r2 = -0.451, p<0.01), waist circumference (r2 = -0.560, p<0.001), waist-height ratio (r2 = -0.560, p<0.001) and systolic blood pressure (r2 = -0.306, p<0.05) after adjustment for age, sex and GMFCS level. Conclusions - Participation in physical activity, particularly at a vigorous intensity, is associated with high cardiorespiratory fitness in children with CP. Low cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with increased cardiometabolic risk