Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness

Enthusiasm for ‘greening the financial system’ is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world’s first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. Under various warming scenarios, we find evidence of climate-induced sovereign downgrades as early as 2030, increasing in intensity and across more countries over the century. We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement, and following RCP 2.6 could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings. In contrast, under higher emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 8.5), 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030, with an average reduction of 1.02 notches, rising to 80 sovereigns facing an average downgrade of 2.48 notches by 2100. We calculate the effect of climate-induced sovereign downgrades on the cost of corporate and sovereign debt. Across the sample, climate change could increase the annual interest payments on sovereign debt by US$22–33 billion under RCP 2.6, rising to US$ 137–205 billion under RCP 8.5. The additional cost to corporates is US$7.2–12.6 billion under RCP 2.6, and US$ 35.8–62.6 billion under RCP 8.5

Fock space exploration by angle resolved transmission through quantum diffraction grating of cold atoms in an optical lattice

Light transmission or diffraction from different quantum phases of cold atoms in an optical lattice has recently come up as a useful tool to probe such ultra cold atomic systems. The periodic nature of the optical lattice potential closely resembles the structure of a diffraction grating in real space, but loaded with a strongly correlated quantum many body state which interacts with the incident electromagnetic wave, a feature that controls the nature of the light transmission or dispersion through such quantum medium. In this paper we show that as one varies the relative angle between the cavity mode and the optical lattice, the peak of the transmission spectrum through such cavity also changes reflecting the statistical distribution of the atoms in the illuminated sites. Consequently the angle resolved transmission spectrum of such quantum diffraction grating can provide a plethora of information about the Fock space structure of the many body quantum state of ultra cold atoms in such an optical cavity that can be explored in current state of the art experiments.Comment: 40 double spaced, single column pages, 40 .eps figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review

Climate Change and Fiscal Sustainability: Risks and Opportunities

Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic risks. Yet, markets still lack credible estimates of how climate change will affect debt sustainability, sovereign creditworthiness, and the public finances of major economies. We present a taxonomy for tracing the physical and transition impacts of climate change through to impacts on sovereign risk. We then apply the taxonomy to the UK's potential transition to net zero. Meeting internationally agreed climate targets will require an unprecedented structural transformation of the global economy over the next two or three decades. The changing landscape of risks warrants new risk management and hedging strategies to contain climate risk and minimise the impact of asset stranding and asset devaluation. Yet, conditional on action being taken early, the opportunities from managing a net zero transition would substantially outweigh the costs

Level Density of a Bose Gas and Extreme Value Statistics

We establish a connection between the level density of a gas of non-interacting bosons and the theory of extreme value statistics. Depending on the exponent that characterizes the growth of the underlying single-particle spectrum, we show that at a given excitation energy the limiting distribution function for the number of excited particles follows the three universal distribution laws of extreme value statistics, namely Gumbel, Weibull and Fr\'echet. Implications of this result, as well as general properties of the level density at different energies, are discussed.Comment: 4 pages, no figure

Application of dissociation curve analysis to radiation hybrid panel marker scoring: generation of a map of river buffalo (B. bubalis) chromosome 20

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fluorescence of dyes bound to double-stranded PCR products has been utilized extensively in various real-time quantitative PCR applications, including post-amplification dissociation curve analysis, or differentiation of amplicon length or sequence composition. Despite the current era of whole-genome sequencing, mapping tools such as radiation hybrid DNA panels remain useful aids for sequence assembly, focused resequencing efforts, and for building physical maps of species that have not yet been sequenced. For placement of specific, individual genes or markers on a map, low-throughput methods remain commonplace. Typically, PCR amplification of DNA from each panel cell line is followed by gel electrophoresis and scoring of each clone for the presence or absence of PCR product. To improve sensitivity and efficiency of radiation hybrid panel analysis in comparison to gel-based methods, we adapted fluorescence-based real-time PCR and dissociation curve analysis for use as a novel scoring method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>As proof of principle for this dissociation curve method, we generated new maps of river buffalo (<it>Bubalus bubalis</it>) chromosome 20 by both dissociation curve analysis and conventional marker scoring. We also obtained sequence data to augment dissociation curve results. Few genes have been previously mapped to buffalo chromosome 20, and sequence detail is limited, so 65 markers were screened from the orthologous chromosome of domestic cattle. Thirty bovine markers (46%) were suitable as cross-species markers for dissociation curve analysis in the buffalo radiation hybrid panel under a standard protocol, compared to 25 markers suitable for conventional typing. Computational analysis placed 27 markers on a chromosome map generated by the new method, while the gel-based approach produced only 20 mapped markers. Among 19 markers common to both maps, the marker order on the map was maintained perfectly.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Dissociation curve analysis is reliable and efficient for radiation hybrid panel scoring, and is more sensitive and robust than conventional gel-based typing methods. Several markers could be scored only by the new method, and ambiguous scores were reduced. PCR-based dissociation curve analysis decreases both time and resources needed for construction of radiation hybrid panel marker maps and represents a significant improvement over gel-based methods in any species.</p

Sex-related differences in premature cardiovascular disease in familial hypercholesterolemia

BACKGROUND: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is associated with an increased prevalence of premature atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), however, little is known about sex-specific differences in premature ASCVD and its risk factors. OBJECTIVE: The present study seeks to assess the burden and risk factors for premature ASCVD among men and women with FH. METHODS: In this study we retrospectively examined sex-specific differences in ASCVD prevalence, risk factor burdens, and lipid treatment outcomes in 782 individuals with clinically or genetically confirmed FH treated in 5 U.S. lipid and genetics clinics. A generalized linear model using Binomial distribution with random study site effect and sex-stratified analysis was used to determine the strongest predictors of premature ASCVD, and lipid treatment outcomes. Covariates included age, sex, diabetes mellitus (DM), hypertension, and current smoking. RESULTS: Among the cohort, 98/280 men (35%) and 89/502 women (18%) had premature ASCVD (defined as \u3c55 years in men and \u3c65 years in women). Women with premature ASCVD had higher mean treated total cholesterol (216 vs. 179 mg/dl, p=\u3c0.001) and LDL-C (135 vs. 109 mg/dl, p= 0.005). CONCLUSION: These data confirm that high percentages of women and men with FH develop premature ASCVD, and suggest that FH may narrow the observed sex difference in premature ASCVD onset. These data support more aggressive prevention and treatment strategies in FH, including in women, to reduce non-lipid risk factors and residual hypercholesterolemia

Resistivity due to a Domain Wall in Ferromagnetic Metal

The resistivity due to a domain wall in ferromagnetic metallic wire is calculated based on the linear response theory. The interaction between conduction electrons and the wall is expressed in terms of a classical gauge field which is introduced by the local gauge transformation in the electron spin space. It is shown that the wall contributes to the decoherence of electrons and that this quantum correction can dominate over the Boltzmann resisitivity, leading to a decrease of resisitivity by nucleation of a wall. The conductance fluctuation due to the motion of the wall is also investigated. The results are compared with recent experiments.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

Two randomised phase II trials of subcutaneous interleukin-2 and histamine dihydrochloride in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma

Histamine inhibits formation and release of phagocyte-derived reactive oxygen species, and thereby protects natural killer and T cells against oxidative damage. Thus, the addition of histamine may potentially improve the efficacy of interleukin-2 (IL-2). Two randomised phase II trials of IL-2 with or without histamine dihydrochloride (HDC) in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) were run in parallel. A total of 41 patients were included in Manchester, UK and 63 in Aarhus, Denmark. The self-administered, outpatient regimen included IL-2 as a fixed dose, 18 MIU s.c. once daily, 5 days per week for 3 weeks followed by 2 weeks rest. Histamine dihydrochloride was added twice daily, 1.0 mg s.c., concomitantly with IL-2. A maximum of four cycles were given. The Danish study showed a statistically significant 1-year survival benefit (76 vs 47%, P=0.03), a trend towards benefit in both median survival (18.3 vs 11.4 months, P=0.07), time to PD (4.5 vs 2.2 months, P=0.13) and clinical benefit (CR+PR+SD) (58 vs 37%, P=0.10) in favour of IL-2/HDC, whereas the UK study was negative for all end points. Only three patients had grade 4 toxicity; however, two were fatal. A randomised phase III trial is warranted to clarify the potential role of adding histamine to IL-2 in mRCC

Design of Lightweight Structural Components for Direct Digital Manufacturing

The rapid growth in direct digital manufacturing technologies has opened the challenge of designing optimal micro-structures for high-performance components. Current topology optimization techniques do not work well for this type of problems and hence in this paper we propose a technique based on an implicit representation of the structural topology. The detailed microstructure is defined by a continuous variable, the size distribution field, defined over the design domain by chosen shape functions. We can optimize the structural topology by optimizing only the weights of the size distribution field and, for any given size distribution, we use standard meshing software to determine the actual detailed micro-structure. We have implemented the optimization loop using commercial CAD and FEA software, running under a genetic algorithm in MATLAB. Application this novel technique to the design of a sandwich beam has produced designs that are superior to any standard solid beam or even optimized truss structure

Pre-clinical characterisation of E2814, a high-affinity antibody targeting the microtubule-binding repeat domain of tau for passive immunotherapy in Alzheimer's disease

Tau deposition in the brain is a pathological hallmark of many neurodegenerative disorders, including Alzheimer’s disease (AD). During the course of these tauopathies, tau spreads throughout the brain via synaptically-connected pathways. Such propagation of pathology is thought to be mediated by tau species (“seeds”) containing the microtubule binding region (MTBR) composed of either three repeat (3R) or four repeat (4R) isoforms. The tau MTBR also forms the core of the neuropathological filaments identified in AD brain and other tauopathies. Multiple approaches are being taken to limit tau pathology, including immunotherapy with anti-tau antibodies. Given its key structural role within fibrils, specifically targetting the MTBR with a therapeutic antibody to inhibit tau seeding and aggregation may be a promising strategy to provide disease-modifying treatment for AD and other tauopathies. Therefore, a monoclonal antibody generating campaign was initiated with focus on the MTBR. Herein we describe the pre-clinical generation and characterisation of E2814, a humanised, high affinity, IgG1 antibody recognising the tau MTBR. E2814 and its murine precursor, 7G6, as revealed by epitope mapping, are antibodies bi-epitopic for 4R and mono-epitopic for 3R tau isoforms because they bind to sequence motif HVPGG. Functionally, both antibodies inhibited tau aggregation in vitro. They also immunodepleted a variety of MTBR-containing tau protein species. In an in vivo model of tau seeding and transmission, attenuation of deposition of sarkosyl-insoluble tau in brain could also be observed in response to antibody treatment. In AD brain, E2814 bound different types of tau filaments as shown by immunogold labelling and recognised pathological tau structures by immunohistochemical staining. Tau fragments containing HVPGG epitopes were also found to be elevated in AD brain compared to PSP or control. Taken together, the data reported here have led to E2814 being proposed for clinical developmen