The mortality rates and the space-time patterns of John Snow’s cholera epidemic map

Background Snow’s work on the Broad Street map is widely known as a pioneering example of spatial epidemiology. It lacks, however, two significant attributes required in contemporary analyses of disease incidence: population at risk and the progression of the epidemic over time. Despite this has been repeatedly suggested in the literature, no systematic investigation of these two aspects was previously carried out. Using a series of historical documents, this study constructs own data to revisit Snow’s study to examine the mortality rate at each street location and the space-time pattern of the cholera outbreak. Methods This study brings together records from a series of historical documents, and prepares own data on the estimated number of residents at each house location as well as the space-time data of the victims, and these are processed in GIS to facilitate the spatial-temporal analysis. Mortality rates and the space-time pattern in the victims’ records are explored using Kernel Density Estimation and network-based Scan Statistic, a recently developed method that detects significant concentrations of records such as the date and place of victims with respect to their distance from others along the street network. The results are visualised in a map form using a GIS platform. Results Data on mortality rates and space-time distribution of the victims were collected from various sources and were successfully merged and digitised, thus allowing the production of new map outputs and new interpretation of the 1854 cholera outbreak in London, covering more cases than Snow’s original report and also adding new insights into their space-time distribution. They confirmed that areas in the immediate vicinity of the Broad Street pump indeed suffered from excessively high mortality rates, which has been suspected for the past 160 years but remained unconfirmed. No distinctive pattern was found in the space-time distribution of victims’ locations. Conclusions The high mortality rates identified around the Broad Street pump are consistent with Snow’s theory about cholera being transmitted through contaminated water. The absence of a clear space-time pattern also indicates the water-bourne, rather than the then popular belief of air bourne, nature of cholera. The GIS data constructed in this study has an academic value and would cater for further research on Snow’s map

Guillain-Barré syndrome: a century of progress

In 1916, Guillain, Barré and Strohl reported on two cases of acute flaccid paralysis with high cerebrospinal fluid protein levels and normal cell counts — novel findings that identified the disease we now know as Guillain–Barré syndrome (GBS). 100 years on, we have made great progress with the clinical and pathological characterization of GBS. Early clinicopathological and animal studies indicated that GBS was an immune-mediated demyelinating disorder, and that severe GBS could result in secondary axonal injury; the current treatments of plasma exchange and intravenous immunoglobulin, which were developed in the 1980s, are based on this premise. Subsequent work has, however, shown that primary axonal injury can be the underlying disease. The association of Campylobacter jejuni strains has led to confirmation that anti-ganglioside antibodies are pathogenic and that axonal GBS involves an antibody and complement-mediated disruption of nodes of Ranvier, neuromuscular junctions and other neuronal and glial membranes. Now, ongoing clinical trials of the complement inhibitor eculizumab are the first targeted immunotherapy in GBS

Maternal Serologic Screening to Prevent Congenital Toxoplasmosis: A Decision-Analytic Economic Model

We constructed a decision-analytic and cost-minimization model to compare monthly maternal serological screening for congenital toxoplasmosis, prenatal treatment, and post-natal follow-up and treatment according to the current French protocol, versus no systematic screening or perinatal treatment. Costs are based on published estimates of lifetime societal costs of developmental disabilities and current diagnostic and treatment costs. Probabilities are based on published results and clinical practice in the United States and France. We use sensitivity analysis to evaluate robustness of results. We find that universal monthly maternal screening for congenital toxoplasmosis with follow-up and treatment, following the French (Paris) protocol, leads to savings of $620 per child screened. Results are robust to changes in test costs, value of statistical life, seroprevalence in women of childbearing age, fetal loss due to amniocentesis, incidence of primary T. gondii infection during pregnancy, and to bivariate analysis of test costs and incidence of primary T. gondii infection. Given the parameters in this model and a maternal screening test cost of$12, screening is cost-saving for rates of congenital infection above 1 per 10,000 live births. Universal screening according to the French protocol is cost saving for the US population within broad parameters for costs and probabilities

Clinical undergraduate training and assessment in primary health care: Experiences gained from Crete, Greece

BACKGROUND: Primary Health Care (PHC) is increasingly being introduced into undergraduate medical education. In Greece, the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Crete was the first to introduce a 4-week long training in primary health care. This paper presents the experiences gained from the initial implementation of the teaching of practice-based primary care in rural Crete and reports on the assessment scale that was developed. METHODS: 284 students' case write-ups from the 6 primary care units (PCUs) where they were allocated for the period 1990 to 1994 were analysed. The demographic data of the students and patients and the number of home visits were studied. Content analysis of the students' write-ups was carried out, using an assessment scale consisting of 10 dichotomous variables, in order to quantify eight (8) primary qualitative criteria. RESULTS: Internal reliability was estimated by the index KR20 = 0.67. Face and content validity was found to conform to the standards set for the course, while logistic linear regression analysis showed that the quality criteria could be used as an assessment scale. The number of home visits carried out varied between the various different PCUs (p < 0.001) and more were reported in the write-ups that fulfilled criteria related to the biopsychosocial approach (p < 0.05). Nine quantitative criteria were fulfilled in more than 90% of case reports, but laboratory investigations were reported only in 69.0% of case reports. Statistically significant differences between the PCUs were observed in the fulfilment of criteria related to the community approach, patient assessment and information related to the patient's perception of the illness, but not to those related to aspects of clinical patient management. Differences in reporting laboratory investigations (p < 0.001) are explained by the lack of such facilities in some PCUs. Demographic characteristics of the patients or the students' do not affect the criteria. CONCLUSION: The primary health care course achieved the objectives of introducing students to comprehensive, community oriented care, although there was variation between the PCUs. The assessment scale that was developed to analyse the case-write ups of the students provided data that can be used to evaluate the course

Analisis Kekuatan Massa Batugamping Dengan Menggunakan Kaidah Hoek-Brown Failure Criterion-Roclab Di Daerah Gunung Sudo Kabupaten Gunung Kidul YOGYAKARTA

The research area is a limestone quarry region prospect, located in Gunung Sudo, Gunung Kidul Regency, Special Region of Yogyakarta Province. Safety factor of bench in limestone quarry is extremely determined by rock mass quality. The aim of this research is analyzing of rock mass strength of limestone in the quarry prospect using the Hoek-Brown failure criterion. The research used quantitative method. To obtain rock mass strength analysis of limestone needs some parameters. The main parameters are uniaxial compressive strength of intact rock, GSI, lithology, disturbance factor, unit weight and application for slope (height).To solve this analysis is assisted by Roclab software. The Roclab is a software program for determining rock mass strength parameters based on the generalized Hoek-Brown failure criterion. Final result of the research will be used for safely mine design of the limestone quarry

Public appraisal of government efforts and participation intent in medico-ethical policymaking in Japan: a large scale national survey concerning brain death and organ transplant

BACKGROUND: Public satisfaction with policy process influences the legitimacy and acceptance of policies, and conditions the future political process, especially when contending ethical value judgments are involved. On the other hand, public involvement is required if effective policy is to be developed and accepted. METHODS: Using the data from a large-scale national opinion survey, this study evaluates public appraisal of past government efforts to legalize organ transplant from brain-dead bodies in Japan, and examines the public's intent to participate in future policy. RESULTS: A relatively large percentage of people became aware of the issue when government actions were initiated, and many increasingly formed their own opinions on the policy in question. However, a significant number (43.3%) remained unaware of any legislative efforts, and only 26.3% of those who were aware provided positive appraisals of the policymaking process. Furthermore, a majority of respondents (61.8%) indicated unwillingness to participate in future policy discussions of bioethical issues. Multivariate analysis revealed the following factors are associated with positive appraisals of policy development: greater age; earlier opinion formation; and familiarity with donor cards. Factors associated with likelihood of future participation in policy discussion include younger age, earlier attention to the issue, and knowledge of past government efforts. Those unwilling to participate cited as their reasons that experts are more knowledgeable and that the issues are too complex. CONCLUSIONS: Results of an opinion survey in Japan were presented, and a set of factors statistically associated with them were discussed. Further efforts to improve policy making process on bioethical issues are desirable

A surveillance sector review applied to infectious diseases at a country level

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The new International Health Regulations (IHR) require World Health Organization (WHO) member states to assess their core capacity for surveillance. Such reviews also have the potential to identify important surveillance gaps, improve the organisation of disparate surveillance systems and to focus attention on <it>upstream </it>hazards, determinants and interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We developed a <it>surveillance sector review </it>method for evaluating all of the surveillance systems and related activities across a sector, in this case those concerned with infectious diseases in New Zealand. The first stage was a systematic description of these surveillance systems using a newly developed framework and classification system. Key informant interviews were conducted to validate the available information on the systems identified.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 91 surveillance systems and related activities in the 12 coherent categories of infectious diseases examined. The majority (n = 40 or 44%) of these were disease surveillance systems. They covered all categories, particularly for more severe outcomes including those resulting in death or hospitalisations. Except for some notifiable diseases and influenza, surveillance of less severe, but important infectious diseases occurring in the community was largely absent. There were 31 systems (34%) for surveillance of <it>upstream </it>infectious disease hazards, including risk and protective factors. This area tended to have many potential gaps and lack integration, partly because such systems were operated by a range of different agencies, often outside the health sector. There were fewer surveillance systems for determinants, including population size and characteristics (n = 9), and interventions (n = 11).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It was possible to create and populate a workable framework for describing all the infectious diseases surveillance systems and related activities in a single developed country and to identify potential surveillance sector gaps. This is the first stage in a review process that will lead to identification of priorities for surveillance sector development.</p

Effectiveness of trigger point dry needling for plantar heel pain: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plantar heel pain (plantar fasciitis) is a common and disabling condition, which has a detrimental impact on health-related quality of life. Despite the high prevalence of plantar heel pain, the optimal treatment for this disorder remains unclear. Consequently, an alternative therapy such as dry needling is increasingly being used as an adjunctive treatment by health practitioners. Only two trials have investigated the effectiveness of dry needling for plantar heel pain, however both trials were of a low methodological quality. This manuscript describes the design of a randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of dry needling for plantar heel pain.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Eighty community-dwelling men and woman aged over 18 years with plantar heel pain (who satisfy the inclusion and exclusion criteria) will be recruited. Eligible participants with plantar heel pain will be randomised to receive either one of two interventions, (i) real dry needling or (ii) sham dry needling. The protocol (including needling details and treatment regimen) was formulated by general consensus (using the Delphi research method) using 30 experts worldwide that commonly use dry needling for plantar heel pain. Primary outcome measures will be the pain subscale of the Foot Health Status Questionnaire and "first step" pain as measured on a visual analogue scale. The secondary outcome measures will be health related quality of life (assessed using the Short Form-36 questionnaire - Version Two) and depression, anxiety and stress (assessed using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale - short version). Primary outcome measures will be performed at baseline, 2, 4, 6 and 12 weeks and secondary outcome measures will be performed at baseline, 6 and 12 weeks. Data will be analysed using the intention to treat principle.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study is the first randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of dry needling for plantar heel pain. The trial will be reported in accordance with the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials and the Standards for Reporting Interventions in Clinical Trials of Acupuncture guidelines. The findings from this trial will provide evidence for the effectiveness of trigger point dry needling for plantar heel pain.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australian New Zealand 'Clinical Trials Registry'. <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12610000611022.aspx">ACTRN12610000611022</a>.</p

A preliminary screening and characterization of suitable acids for sandstone matrix acidizing technique: a comprehensive review

Matrix acidizing is a broadly developed technique in sandstone stimulation to improve the permeability and porosity of a bottom-hole well. The most popular acid used is mud acid (HF–HCl). It is a mixture of hydrofluoric acid and hydrochloric acid. However, one of the conventional problems in sandstone acidizing is that mud acid faces significant issues at high temperature such as rapid rate of reaction, resulting in early acid consumption. This downside has given a negative impact to sandstone acidizing as it will result in not only permeability reduction, but can even extend to acid treatment failure. So, the aim of this study is to provide a preliminary screening and comparison of different acids based on the literature to optimize the acid selection, and targeting various temperatures of sandstone environment. This paper has comprehensively reviewed the experimental works using different acids to understand the chemical reactions and transport properties of acid in sandstone environment. The results obtained indicated that fluoroboric acid (HBF4) could be useful in enhancing the sandstone acidizing process, although more studies are still required to consolidate this conclusion. HBF4 is well known as a low damaging acid for sandstone acidizing due to its slow hydrolytic reaction to produce HF. This would allow deeper penetration of the acid into the sandstone formation at a slower rate, resulting in higher porosity and permeability enhancement. Nevertheless, little is known about the effective temperature working range for a successful treatment. Considering the pros and cons of different acids, particularly those which are associated with HF and HBF4, it is recommended to perform a comprehensive analysis to determine the optimum temperature range and effective working window for sandstone acidizing before treatment operation. Prior to sandstone acid stimulation, it is essential to predict the feasibility of acid selected by integrating the effects of temperature, acid concentration and injection rate. Therefore, this manuscript has thrown light into the research significance of further studies