Winning Afghan ‘hearts and minds’? Time to leave Afghanistan

‘We try to help them … but it just seems pointless’ one British solider says, referring to the battle for ‘hearts and minds’ in Afghanistan. The biggest problem, says another, is “convincing the locals to help themselves.

Cyber terrorism and war, the looming threat to the industrialised state

Earlier this month the EastWest Institute held its second worldwide summit on cyber security. Hundreds of government and industry leaders, from over 43 countries, attended to discuss the looming threat of increasing war and criminality within the cyber domain

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities

The Complex Dynamics of Wishful Thinking The Critical Positivity Ratio

We examine critically the claims made by Fredrickson and Losada (2005) concerning the construct known as the “positivity ratio.” We find no theoretical or empirical justification for the use of differential equations drawn from fluid dynamics, a subfield of physics, to describe changes in human emotions over time; furthermore, we demonstrate that the purported application of these equations contains numerous fundamental conceptual and mathematical errors. The lack of relevance of these equations and their incorrect application lead us to conclude that Fredrickson and Losada’s claim to have demonstrated the existence of a critical minimum positivity ratio of 2.9013 is entirely unfounded. More generally, we urge future researchers to exercise caution in the use of advanced mathematical tools, such as nonlinear dynamics, and in particular to verify that the elementary conditions for their valid application have been met

A large-scale simulation of the piriform cortex by a cell automaton-based network model

An event-driven framework is used to construct physiologically motivated large-scale model of the piriform cortex containing in the order of 105 neuron-like computing units. This approach is based on a hierarchically defined highly abstract neuron model consisting of finite-state machines. It provides computational efficiency while incorporating components which have identifiable counterparts in the neurophysiological domain. The network model incorporates four neuron types, and glutamatergic excitatory and inhibitory synapses. The spatio-temporal patterns of cortical activity and the temporal and spectral characteristics of simulated electroencephalograms (EEGs) are studied. In line with previous experimental and compartmental work, 1) shock stimuli elicit EEG profiles with either isolated peaks or damped oscillations, the response type being determined by the intensity of the stimuli, and 2) temporally unpatterned input generates EEG oscillations supported by model-wide waves of excitation. <br/

Positive Psychology and Romantic Scientism

Replies to the comments of Nickerson (see record 2014-36500-010), Guastello (see record 2014-36500-011), Musau (see record 2014-36500-013), Hämäläinen et al. (see record 2014-36500-014), and Lefebvre and Schwartz (see record 2014-36500-015) on the authors article (see record 2013-24609-001). Fredrickson and Losada’s (2005) article was the subject of over 350 scholarly citations before our critique (Brown et al., 2013) appeared, and its principal “conclusions” have been featured in many lectures and public presentations by senior members of the positive psychology research community, although its deficiencies ought to have been visible to anyone with a modest grasp of mathematics and a little curiosity. Unfortunately— because human behavior is, after all, complex and difficult to understand—we have no way of knowing whether the fact that it took so long for these deficiencies to be recognized was due to an unwarranted degree of optimism about the reliability of the peer-review process, a reluctance to make waves in the face of powerful interests, a general lack of critical thinking within positive psychology, or some other factor. We hope that our revelation of the problems with the critical positivity ratio ultimately demonstrates the success of science as a self-correcting endeavor; however, we would have greatly preferred it if our work had not been necessary in the first place. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved

The Persistence of Wishful Thinking

Comments on the article by Fredrickson and Losada (see record 2005-11834-001). Recently the current authors (Brown, Sokal, & Friedman, 2013) debunked the widely cited claim made by Fredrickson and Losada (2005) that their use of a mathematical model drawn from nonlinear dynamics (namely, the Lorenz equations from fluid dynamics) provided theoretical support for the existence of a pair of critical positivity-ratio values (2.9013 and 11.6346) such that individuals whose ratios fall between these values will “flourish,” whereas people whose ratios lie outside this ideal range will “languish.” For lack of space in our previous article, we refrained from addressing, except in passing, the question of whether there might be empirical evidence for the existence of one or more critical positivity ratios (“tipping points”). In response to our critique, Fredrickson and Losada (2013) withdrew their nonlinear dynamics model, but Fredrickson (December December 2013) reaffirmed some claims concerning positivity ratios on the basis of empirical studies. We would therefore like to comment briefly on these claims and the alleged supporting evidence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved

In vitro characterisation of cell-level neurophysiological diversity in the rostral nucleus reuniens of adult mice

PublishedThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.The nucleus reuniens (Re) is the largest of the midline thalamic nuclei. We have performed a detailed neurophysiological characterization of neurons in the rostral Re of brain slices prepared from adult male mice. At resting potential (−63.7 ± 0.6 mV), circa 90% of Re neurons fired action potentials, typically continuously at ∼8 Hz. Although Re neurons experience a significant spontaneous barrage of fast, amino-acid-mediate synaptic transmission, this was not predominantly responsible for spontaneous spiking as firing persisted in the presence of glutamate and GABA receptor antagonists. With resting potential preset to −80 mV −20 pA current injections revealed a mean input resistance of 615 MΩ and mean time constant of 38 ms. Following cessation of this stimulus a significant rebound potential was seen that was sometimes large enough to trigger a short burst of very high frequency (100–300 Hz) firing. In most cells short (2 ms), strong (2 nA) current injections elicited a single spike followed by a large afterdepolarizing potential (ADP) which, when suprathreshold, generated high frequency spiking. Similarly, in the majority of cells preset at −80 mV, 500 ms depolarizing current injections to cells led to a brief initial burst of very high frequency firing, although this was lost when cells were preset at −72 mV. Biophysical and pharmacological experiments indicate a prominent role for T-type Ca2+ channels in the high-frequency bursting of Re neurons. Finally, we describe a novel form of activity-dependent intrinsic plasticity that persistently eliminates the burst firing potential of Re neurons

Time-Domain Simulation of Mixed Nonlinear Magnetic and Electronic Systems

This paper describes a technique for the simulation of complex magnetic systems intimately connected to any necessary drive electronics. The system is split into two Kirchhoffian domains, one magnetic and one electric. Two-way interaction between the domains is supported by a virtual device called a magneto-electric differential gyrator. Using this technique, arbitrarily complex, non-linear, hysteretic magnetic systems may be simulated in the time domain, coupled to any appropriate non-linear electronics, at a fraction of the cost of a comparable finite element calculation. The capabilities of the system are demonstrated by the simulation of a feedback-controlled current sensing system, and the simulation tracks the measured behaviour of the system well outside its linear region, to the point that the non-linear hysteretic core is being driven into and out of saturation, a consequence of a time delay inherent in the electronics. This is compared with a simulation of the same system using a 'conventional' electronic simulation, and the increased accuracy of this technique clearly demonstrated

Murine myoblast migration: influence of replicative ageing and nutrition

Cell migration is central to skeletal muscle repair following damage. Leucine and β-Hydroxy β-methylbutyric acid (HMB) are supplements consumed for recovery from muscle damaging exercise in humans, however, their impact on muscle cell migration with age is not yet understood. We hypothesised that replicatively aged (“aged”; P46–P48) myoblasts would be less efficient at basal and supplemented repair versus parental controls (“control”; P12–P16). Aged and control myoblasts were scratch-damaged and migration velocity, directionality and distance assessed over 48 h in the absence and presence of leucine (10 mM) or HMB (10 mM) ± PI3K/Akt (LY294002 10 μM), ERK (PD98059 5 μM) or mTOR (rapamycin 0.5 μM) inhibition. Opposing our hypothesis, aged cells displayed increased velocities, directionality and distance migrated (P < 0.001) versus control. Leucine and HMB significantly increased (P < 0.001) the same parameters in control cells. The supplements were with smaller, albeit significant impact on aged cell velocity (P < 0.001) and in the presence of HMB only, distance (P = 0.041). Inhibitor studies revealed that, PI3K and ERK activation were essential for velocity, directionality and migration distance of aged cells in basal conditions, whereas mTOR was important for directionality only. While PI3K activation was critical for all parameters in control cells (P < 0.001), inhibition of ERK or mTOR improved, rather than reduced, control cell migration distance. Enhanced basal velocity, directionality and distance in aged cells required ERK and PI3K activation. By contrast, in control cells, basal migration was underpinned by PI3K activation, and facilitated by leucine or HMB supplementation, to migration levels seen in aged cells. These data suggest that replicatively aged myoblasts are not anabolically resistant per se, but are capable of efficient repair, underpinned by altered signaling pathways, compared with unaged control myoblasts