Investigating ethnic inequalities in the incidence of sexually transmitted infections: mathematical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate ethnic differences in rates of gonorrhoea using empirical sexual behaviour data in a simple mathematical model. To explore the impact of different intervention strategies in this simulated population. METHODS: The findings from cross sectional studies of gonorrhoea rates and sexual behaviour in three ethnic groups in south east London were used to determine the parameters for a deterministic, mathematical model of gonorrhoea transmission dynamics, in a population stratified by sex, sexual activity (rate of partner change), and ethnic group (white, black African, and black Caribbean). We compared predicted and observed rates of infection and simulated the effects of targeted and population-wide intervention strategies. RESULTS: In model simulations the reported sexual behaviours and mixing patterns generated major differences in the rates of gonorrhoea experienced by each subpopulation. The fit of the model to observed data was sensitive to assumptions about the degree of mixing by level of sexual activity, the numbers of sexual partnerships reported by men and women, and the degree to which observed data underestimate female infection rates. Interventions to reduce duration of infection were most effective when targeted at black Caribbeans. CONCLUSIONS: Average measures of sexual behaviour in large populations are inadequate descriptors for the epidemiology of gonorrhoea. The consistency between the model results and empirical data shows that profound differences in gonorrhoea rates between ethnic groups can be explained by modest differences in a limited number of sexual behaviours and mixing patterns. Targeting effective services to particular ethnic groups can have a disproportionate influence on disease reduction in the whole community

The potential impact of moxidectin on onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: an economic evaluation based on the Phase II clinical trial data

BACKGROUND: Spurred by success in several foci, onchocerciasis control policy in Africa has shifted from morbidity control to elimination of infection. Clinical trials have demonstrated that moxidectin is substantially more efficacious than ivermectin in effecting sustained reductions in skin microfilarial load and, therefore, may accelerate progress towards elimination. We compare the potential cost-effectiveness of annual moxidectin with annual and biannual ivermectin treatment. METHODS: Data from the first clinical study of moxidectin were used to parameterise the onchocerciasis transmission model EPIONCHO to investigate, for different epidemiological and programmatic scenarios in African savannah settings, the number of years and in-country costs necessary to reach the operational thresholds for cessation of treatment, comparing annual and biannual ivermectin with annual moxidectin treatment. RESULTS: Annual moxidectin and biannual ivermectin treatment would achieve similar reductions in programme duration relative to annual ivermectin treatment. Unlike biannual ivermectin treatment, annual moxidectin treatment would not incur a considerable increase in programmatic costs and, therefore, would generate sizeable in-country cost savings (assuming the drug is donated). Furthermore, the impact of moxidectin, unlike ivermectin, was not substantively influenced by the timing of treatment relative to seasonal patterns of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Moxidectin is a promising new drug for the control and elimination of onchocerciasis. It has high programmatic value particularly when resource limitation prevents a biannual treatment strategy, or optimal timing of treatment relative to peak transmission season is not feasible. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-0779-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Walking as a meaningful leisure occupation: the implications for occupational therapy

Introduction: In response to growing interest in leisure in occupational therapy and the importance of understanding how occupations maintain, enhance and promote health and wellbeing, a qualitative phenomenological study was conducted to explore the experiences of walking for leisure. Method: Six healthy student participants, identified as regular walkers, were interviewed using a semi-structured format. Data were analysed following interpretative phenomenological analysis methodology. Findings: Participants expressed how and why walking was meaningful to them; the four main themes were social connectedness, wellbeing, connection to nature and achievement from a challenge. Findings suggest that occupational therapists could use walking and leisure occupations in intervention, and that there is scope for an occupational therapy perspective in health promotion. Conclusion: Determining the subjective meaning of engaging in walking as a leisure occupation has implications for occupational science and health promotion in helping to explain why people do what they do

Association Between Risk-of-Bias Assessments and Results of Randomized Trials in Cochrane Reviews: The ROBES Meta-Epidemiologic Study.

Flaws in the design of randomized trials may bias intervention effect estimates and increase between-trial heterogeneity. Empirical evidence suggests that these problems are greatest for subjectively assessed outcomes. For the Risk of Bias in Evidence Synthesis (ROBES) Study, we extracted risk-of-bias judgements (for sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding, and incomplete data) from a large collection of meta-analyses published in the Cochrane Library (issue 4; April 2011). We categorized outcome measures as mortality, other objective outcome, or subjective outcome, and we estimated associations of bias judgements with intervention effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical models. Among 2,443 randomized trials in 228 meta-analyses, intervention effect estimates were, on average, exaggerated in trials with high or unclear (versus low) risk-of-bias judgements for sequence generation (ratio of odds ratios (ROR) = 0.91, 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.86, 0.98), allocation concealment (ROR = 0.92, 95% CrI: 0.86, 0.98), and blinding (ROR = 0.87, 95% CrI: 0.80, 0.93). In contrast to previous work, we did not observe consistently different bias for subjective outcomes compared with mortality. However, we found an increase in between-trial heterogeneity associated with lack of blinding in meta-analyses with subjective outcomes. Inconsistency in criteria for risk-of-bias judgements applied by individual reviewers is a likely limitation of routinely collected bias assessments. Inadequate randomization and lack of blinding may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates in randomized trials

Mapping the structure of Borneo's tropical forests across a degradation gradient

South East Asia has the highest rate of lowland forest loss of any tropical region, with logging and deforestation for conversion to plantation agriculture being flagged as the most urgent threats. Detecting and mapping logging impacts on forest structure is a primary conservation concern, as these impacts feed through to changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Here, we test whether high-spatial resolution satellite remote sensing can be used to map the responses of aboveground live tree biomass (AGB), canopy leaf area index (LAI) and fractional vegetation cover (FCover) to selective logging and deforestation in Malaysian Borneo. We measured these attributes in permanent vegetation plots in rainforest and oil palm plantations across the degradation landscape of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems project. We found significant mathematical relationships between field-measured structure and satellite-derived spectral and texture information, explaining up to 62% of variation in biophysical structure across forest and oil palm plots. These relationships held at different aggregation levels from plots to forest disturbance types and oil palms allowing us to map aboveground biomass and canopy structure across the degradation landscape. The maps reveal considerable spatial variation in the impacts of previous logging, a pattern that was less clear when considering field data alone. Up-scaled maps revealed a pronounced decline in aboveground live tree biomass with increasing disturbance, impacts which are also clearly visible in the field data even a decade after logging. Field data demonstrate a rapid recovery in forest canopy structure with the canopy recovering to pre-disturbance levels a decade after logging. Yet, up-scaled maps show that both LAI and FCover are still reduced in logged compared to primary forest stands and markedly lower in oil palm stands. While uncertainties remain, these maps can now be utilised to identify conservation win–wins, especially when combining them with ongoing biodiversity surveys and measurements of carbon sequestration, hydrological cycles and microclimate

Aberrant phenotype in human endothelial cells of diabetic origin: Implications for saphenous vein graft failure?

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) confers increased risk of endothelial dysfunction, coronary heart disease, and vulnerability to vein graft failure after bypass grafting, despite glycaemic control. This study explored the concept that endothelial cells (EC) cultured from T2DM and nondiabetic (ND) patients are phenotypically and functionally distinct. Cultured human saphenous vein-(SV-) EC were compared between T2DM and ND patients in parallel. Proliferation, migration, and in vitro angiogenesis assays were performed; western blotting was used to quantify phosphorylation of Akt, ERK, and eNOS. The ability of diabetic stimuli (hyperglycaemia, TNF-α, and palmitate) to modulate angiogenic potential of ND-EC was also explored. T2DM-EC displayed reduced migration (30%) and angiogenesis (40%) compared with ND-EC and a modest, nonsignificant trend to reduced proliferation. Significant inhibition of Akt and eNOS, but not ERK phosphorylation, was observed in T2DM cells. Hyperglycaemia did not modify ND-EC function, but TNF-α and palmitate significantly reduced angiogenic capacity (by 27% and 43%, resp.), effects mimicked by Akt inhibition. Aberrancies of EC function may help to explain the increased risk of SV graft failure in T2DM patients. This study highlights the importance of other potentially contributing factors in addition to hyperglycaemia that may inflict injury and long-term dysfunction to the homeostatic capacity of the endothelium

X-ray Absorption and Reflection in Active Galactic Nuclei

X-ray spectroscopy offers an opportunity to study the complex mixture of emitting and absorbing components in the circumnuclear regions of active galactic nuclei, and to learn about the accretion process that fuels AGN and the feedback of material to their host galaxies. We describe the spectral signatures that may be studied and review the X-ray spectra and spectral variability of active galaxies, concentrating on progress from recent Chandra, XMM-Newton and Suzaku data for local type 1 AGN. We describe the evidence for absorption covering a wide range of column densities, ionization and dynamics, and discuss the growing evidence for partial-covering absorption from data at energies > 10 keV. Such absorption can also explain the observed X-ray spectral curvature and variability in AGN at lower energies and is likely an important factor in shaping the observed properties of this class of source. Consideration of self-consistent models for local AGN indicates that X-ray spectra likely comprise a combination of absorption and reflection effects from material originating within a few light days of the black hole as well as on larger scales. It is likely that AGN X-ray spectra may be strongly affected by the presence of disk-wind outflows that are expected in systems with high accretion rates, and we describe models that attempt to predict the effects of radiative transfer through such winds, and discuss the prospects for new data to test and address these ideas.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysics Review. 58 pages, 9 figures. V2 has fixed an error in footnote

Oldest known pantherine skull and evolution of the tiger

The tiger is one of the most iconic extant animals, and its origin and evolution have been intensely debated. Fossils attributable to extant pantherine species-lineages are less than 2 MYA and the earliest tiger fossils are from the Calabrian, Lower Pleistocene. Molecular studies predict a much younger age for the divergence of modern tiger subspecies at <100 KYA, although their cranial morphology is readily distinguishable, indicating that early Pleistocene tigers would likely have differed markedly anatomically from extant tigers. Such inferences are hampered by the fact that well-known fossil tiger material is middle to late Pleistocene in age. Here we describe a new species of pantherine cat from Longdan, Gansu Province, China, Panthera zdanskyi sp. nov. With an estimated age of 2.55–2.16 MYA it represents the oldest complete skull of a pantherine cat hitherto found. Although smaller, it appears morphologically to be surprisingly similar to modern tigers considering its age. Morphological, morphometric, and cladistic analyses are congruent in confirming its very close affinity to the tiger, and it may be regarded as the most primitive species of the tiger lineage, demonstrating the first unequivocal presence of a modern pantherine species-lineage in the basal stage of the Pleistocene (Gelasian; traditionally considered to be Late Pliocene). This find supports a north-central Chinese origin of the tiger lineage, and demonstrates that various parts of the cranium, mandible, and dentition evolved at different rates. An increase in size and a reduction in the relative size of parts of the dentition appear to have been prominent features of tiger evolution, whereas the distinctive cranial morphology of modern tigers was established very early in their evolutionary history. The evolutionary trend of increasing size in the tiger lineage is likely coupled to the evolution of its primary prey species

Natural archives of long-range transported contamination at the remote lake Letšeng-la Letsie, Maloti Mountains, Lesotho

Naturally accumulating archives, such as lake sediments and wetland peats, in remote areas may be used to identify the scale and rates of atmospherically deposited pollutant inputs to natural ecosystems. Co-located lake sediment and wetland cores were collected from Letšeng-la Letsie, a remote lake in the Maloti Mountains of southern Lesotho. The cores were radiometrically dated and analysed for a suite of contaminants including trace metals and metalloids (Hg, Pb, Cu, Ni, Zn, As), fly-ash particles, stable nitrogen isotopes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and persistent organic pollutants such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated flame retardants (PBDEs) and hexachlorobenzene (HCB). While most trace metals showed no recent enrichment, mercury, fly-ash particles, high molecular weight PAHs and total PCBs showed low but increasing levels of contamination since c.1970, likely the result of long-range transport from coal combustion and other industrial sources in the Highveld region of South Africa. However, back-trajectory analysis revealed that atmospheric transport from this region to southern Lesotho is infrequent and the scale of contamination is low. To our knowledge, these data represent the first palaeolimnological records and the first trace contaminant data for Lesotho, and one of the first multi-pollutant historical records for southern Africa. They therefore provide a baseline for future regional assessments in the context of continued coal combustion in South Africa through to the mid-21st century