The global burden of viral hepatitis from 1990 to 2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: With recent improvements in vaccines and treatments against viral hepatitis, an improved understanding of the burden of viral hepatitis is needed to inform global intervention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study to estimate morbidity and mortality for acute viral hepatitis, and for cirrhosis and liver cancer caused by viral hepatitis, by age, sex, and country from 1990 to 2013. METHODS: We estimated mortality using natural history models for acute hepatitis infections and GBD's cause-of-death ensemble model for cirrhosis and liver cancer. We used meta-regression to estimate total cirrhosis and total liver cancer prevalence, as well as the proportion of cirrhosis and liver cancer attributable to each cause. We then estimated cause-specific prevalence as the product of the total prevalence and the proportion attributable to a specific cause. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). FINDINGS: Between 1990 and 2013, global viral hepatitis deaths increased from 0·89 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·86–0·94) to 1·45 million (1·38–1·54); YLLs from 31·0 million (29·6–32·6) to 41·6 million (39·1–44·7); YLDs from 0·65 million (0·45–0·89) to 0·87 million (0·61–1·18); and DALYs from 31·7 million (30·2–33·3) to 42·5 million (39·9–45·6). In 2013, viral hepatitis was the seventh (95% UI seventh to eighth) leading cause of death worldwide, compared with tenth (tenth to 12th) in 1990. INTERPRETATION: Viral hepatitis is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Unlike most communicable diseases, the absolute burden and relative rank of viral hepatitis increased between 1990 and 2013. The enormous health loss attributable to viral hepatitis, and the availability of effective vaccines and treatments, suggests an important opportunity to improve public health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The impact of obesity on time spent with the provider and number of medications managed during office-based physician visits using a cross-sectional, national health survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Obesity is associated with morbidity, mortality, and increased health care costs. Few studies have examined the impact of obesity on outpatient office visits. The purpose of this study was to determine if outpatient visits by obese persons required more time with the provider and more prescription medication management compared to visits made by non-obese persons.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Obesity status was determined for 9,280 patient visits made by persons aged 18 years or older in the 2006 National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. Multivariate analyses compared obese and non-obese visits, stratified by sex, for duration of the visit and the number of medications mentioned at the visit.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Average duration of visit was higher among visits with patients determined to be obese. However, these differences were not considered significant after statistical testing. Visits made by obese female patients were significantly more likely to involve more than two prescription medications (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.05 - 1.51) and visits made by obese male patients were significantly more likely to involve more than two prescription medications (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.16 - 1.83) as compared to visits made by non-obese patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Time spent with the provider was found to be greater among visits with obese patients, but not significantly different from visits with non-obese patients. The number of medications for each visit was found to be significantly greater for visits where the patient was considered to be obese. Increased time for the visit and increased numbers of medication for each visit translate into increased costs. These findings document the impact of obesity on our health care system and have great implications on medical care cost and planning.</p

A new approach of nonparametric estimation of incidence and lifetime risk based on birth rates and incident events

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Incidence and lifetime risk of diabetes are important public health measures. Traditionally, nonparametric estimates are obtained from survey data by means of a Nelson-Aalen estimator which requires data information on both incident events and risk sets from the entire cohort. Such data information is rarely available in real studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We compare two different approaches for obtaining nonparametric estimates of age-specific incidence and lifetime risk with emphasis on required assumptions. The first and novel approach only considers incident cases occurring within a fixed time window–we have termed this <it>cohort-of-cases </it>data–which is linked explicitly to the birth process in the past. The second approach is the usual Nelson-Aalen estimate which requires knowledge on observed time at risk for the entire cohort and their incident events. Both approaches are used on data on anti-diabetic medications obtained from Odense Pharmacoepidemiological Database, which covers a population of approximately 470,000 over the period 1993–2003. For both methods we investigate if and how incidence rates can be projected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Both the new and standard method yield similar sigmoidal shaped estimates of the cumulative distribution function of age-specific incidence. The Nelson-Aalen estimator gives somewhat higher estimates of lifetime risk (15.65% (15.14%; 16.16%) for females, and 17.91% (17.38%; 18.44%) for males) than the estimate based on cohort-of-cases data (13.77% (13.74%; 13.81%) for females, 15.61% (15.58%; 15.65%) for males). Accordingly the projected incidence rates are higher based on the Nelson-Aalen estimate–also too high when compared to observed rates. In contrast, the cohort-of-cases approach gives projections that fit observed rates better.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The developed methodology for analysis of cohort-of-cases data has potential to become a cost-effective alternative to a traditional survey based study of incidence. To allow more general use of the methodology, more research is needed on how to relax stationarity assumptions.</p

Change in diet, physical activity, and body weight among young-adults during the transition from high school to college

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The freshmen year of college is likely a critical period for risk of weight gain among young-adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A longitudinal observational study was conducted to examine changes in weight, dietary intake, and other health-related behaviors among first-year college students (n = 186) attending a public University in the western United States. Weight was measured at the beginning and end of fall semester (August – December 2005). Participants completed surveys about dietary intake, physical activity and other health-related behaviors during the last six months of high school (January – June 2005) in August 2005 and during their first semester of college (August – December 2005) in December 2005.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>159 students (n = 102 women, 57 men) completed both assessments. The average BMI at the baseline assessment was 23.0 (standard deviation (SD) 3.8). Although the average amount of weight gained during the 15-week study was modest (1.5 kg), 23% of participants gained ≥ 5% of their baseline body weight. Average weight gain among those who gained ≥ 5% of baseline body weight was 4.5 kg. Those who gained ≥ 5% of body weight reported less physical activity during college than high school, were more likely to eat breakfast, and slept more than were those who did not gain ≥ 5% of body weight.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Almost one quarter of students gained a significant amount of weight during their first semester of college. This research provides further support for the implementation of education or other strategies aimed at helping young-adults entering college to achieve or maintain a healthy body weight.</p

Toward optimal implementation of cancer prevention and control programs in public health: A study protocol on mis-implementation

Abstract Background Much of the cancer burden in the USA is preventable, through application of existing knowledge. State-level funders and public health practitioners are in ideal positions to affect programs and policies related to cancer control. Mis-implementation refers to ending effective programs and policies prematurely or continuing ineffective ones. Greater attention to mis-implementation should lead to use of effective interventions and more efficient expenditure of resources, which in the long term, will lead to more positive cancer outcomes. Methods This is a three-phase study that takes a comprehensive approach, leading to the elucidation of tactics for addressing mis-implementation. Phase 1: We assess the extent to which mis-implementation is occurring among state cancer control programs in public health. This initial phase will involve a survey of 800 practitioners representing all states. The programs represented will span the full continuum of cancer control, from primary prevention to survivorship. Phase 2: Using data from phase 1 to identify organizations in which mis-implementation is particularly high or low, the team will conduct eight comparative case studies to get a richer understanding of mis-implementation and to understand contextual differences. These case studies will highlight lessons learned about mis-implementation and identify hypothesized drivers. Phase 3: Agent-based modeling will be used to identify dynamic interactions between individual capacity, organizational capacity, use of evidence, funding, and external factors driving mis-implementation. The team will then translate and disseminate findings from phases 1 to 3 to practitioners and practice-related stakeholders to support the reduction of mis-implementation. Discussion This study is innovative and significant because it will (1) be the first to refine and further develop reliable and valid measures of mis-implementation of public health programs; (2) bring together a strong, transdisciplinary team with significant expertise in practice-based research; (3) use agent-based modeling to address cancer control implementation; and (4) use a participatory, evidence-based, stakeholder-driven approach that will identify key leverage points for addressing mis-implementation among state public health programs. This research is expected to provide replicable computational simulation models that can identify leverage points and public health system dynamics to reduce mis-implementation in cancer control and may be of interest to other health areas

Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976–1992), the NHANES III (1988–1994) and the NHANES 1999–2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999–2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions. RESULTS: Based on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00125-006-0528-5 and is accessible to authorized users

Association between the metabolic syndrome and its components and gait speed among U.S. adults aged 50 years and older: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND: To examine the relationship between the metabolic syndrome and its components and gait speed among older U.S. men and women. Whether these associations are independent of physical activity was also explored. METHODS: Eight hundred and thirty-five men and 850 women aged ≥50 years from the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2002 were examined. We used the definition of the metabolic syndrome developed by the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Gait speed was measured with a 6.10-meter timed walk examination. RESULTS: The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 40.2% in men and 45.6% in women (P = .127). The prevalence of gait speed impairment was 29.3% in men and 12.5% in women (P < .001). No association was found between the metabolic syndrome and gait speed impairment. After including the individual components of the metabolic syndrome in a logistic model adjusted for age and leisure-time physical activity, abdominal obesity, low HDL cholesterol, and high fasting glucose were significantly associated with gait speed impairment among women (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.26 to 0.89; AOR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.08 to 4.75; and AOR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.12 to 3.74, respectively). Further adjustment for race/ethnicity, education, smoking status, alcohol consumption, arthritis status, and use of an assistive device attenuated these associations; among women, abdominal obesity and low HDL cholesterol remained significantly associated with gait speed impairment (AOR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.76 and AOR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.07 to 5.63, respectively) while the association between hyperglycemia and impaired gait speed attenuated to nonsignificance. CONCLUSION: Among women, gait speed impairment is associated with low HDL cholesterol and inversely with abdominal obesity. These associations may be sex-dependent and warrant further research

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation