Longitudinal trends of future climate change and oil palm growth: empirical evidence for tropical Africa

Palms are highly significant tropical plants. Oil palms produce palm oil, the basic commodity of a highly important industry. Climate change from greenhouse gasses is likely to decrease the ability of palms to survive, irrespective of them providing ecosystem services to communities. Little information about species survival in tropical regions under climate change is available and data on species migration under climate change is important. Palms are particularly significant in Africa: a palm oil industry already exists with Nigeria being the largest producer. Previous work using CLIMEX modelling indicated that Africa will have reduced suitable climate for oil palm in Africa. The current paper employs this modelling to assess how suitable climate for growing oil palm changed in Africa from current time to 2100. An increasing trend in suitable climate from west to east was observed indicating that refuges could be obtained along the African tropical belt. Most countries had reduced suitable climates but others had increased, with Uganda being particularly high. There may be a case for developing future oil palm plantations towards the east of Africa. The information may be usefully applied to other palms. However, it is crucial that any developments will fully adhere to environmental regulations. Future climate change will have severe consequences to oil palm cultivation but there may be scope for eastwards mitigation in Africa.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Palm species richness, latitudinal gradients, sampling effort, and deforestation in the Amazon region

ABSTRACT Palms are most diverse in warm and humid regions near the equator. Though palms remain relatively well conserved, they are under increasing pressure from deforestation. Here, we analyze patterns of palm species richness relative to latitudinal gradient, sampling effort, and deforestation in the Amazon, and compare patterns of richness and floristic similarity among Amazonian sub-regions. We built a database of 17,310 records for 177 species. The areas with the greatest richness were in the western, central and northeastern Amazon, principally at latitudes 0-5ºS. Species richness and the number of records were highly correlated (R2=0.76, P2000 km2) were found in the southern and eastern Amazon of Brazil, which coincide with low richness and gaps in records. Similarity analyzes resulted in two groups of sub-regions: the first included the Amazon s.s., the Andes and the Guiana, while the second included the Plateau and Gurupi. We conclude that the highest species richness is at low latitudes, and observed richness is affected by sampling effort and is vulnerable to deforestation. Therefore, areas with low species richness, especially areas with data deficiency, need to be further studied for a better understanding of their patterns of diversity and richness