Active faulting within a megacity: the geometry and slip rate of the Pardisan thrust in central Tehran, Iran

Tehran, the capital city of Iran with a population of over 12 million, is one of the largest urban centres within the seismically active Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt. Although several historic earthquakes have affected Tehran, their relation to individual faults is ambiguous for most. This ambiguity is partly due to a lack of knowledge about the locations, geometries and seismic potential of structures that have been obscured by dramatic urban growth over the past three decades, and which have covered most of the young geomorphic markers and natural exposures. Here we use aerial photographs from 1956, combined with an ~1 m DEM derived from stereo Pleiades satellite imagery to investigate the geomorphology of a growing anticline above a thrust fault—the Pardisan thrust—within central Tehran. The topography across the ridge is consistent with a steep ramp extending from close to the surface to a depth of ~2 km, where it presumably connects with a shallow-dipping detachment. No primary fault is visible at the surface, and it is possible that the faulting dissipates in the near surface as distributed shearing. We use optically stimulated luminescence to date remnants of uplifted and warped alluvial deposits that are offset vertically across the Pardisan fault, providing minimum uplift and slip-rates of at least 1 mm yr$^{−1}$. Our study shows that the faults within the Tehran urban region have relatively rapid rates of slip, are important in the regional tectonics, and have a great impact on earthquake hazard assessment of the city and surrounding region.Geological Survey of Iran, Christ Church College Oxford, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Counci

Kaon-Nucleon Scattering Amplitudes and Z∗^*-Enhancements from Quark Born Diagrams

We derive closed form kaon-nucleon scattering amplitudes using the ``quark Born diagram" formalism, which describes the scattering as a single interaction (here the OGE spin-spin term) followed by quark line rearrangement. The low energy I=0 and I=1 S-wave KN phase shifts are in reasonably good agreement with experiment given conventional quark model parameters. For $k_{lab}> 0.7$ Gev however the I=1 elastic phase shift is larger than predicted by Gaussian wavefunctions, and we suggest possible reasons for this discrepancy. Equivalent low energy KN potentials for S-wave scattering are also derived. Finally we consider OGE forces in the related channels K$\Delta$, K$^*$N and K$^*\Delta$, and determine which have attractive interactions and might therefore exhibit strong threshold enhancements or ``Z$^*$-molecule" meson-baryon bound states. We find that the minimum-spin, minimum-isospin channels and two additional K$^*\Delta$ channels are most conducive to the formation of bound states. Related interesting topics for future experimental and theoretical studies of KN interactions are also discussed.Comment: 34 pages, figures available from the authors, revte

New values of time and reliability in passenger transport in The Netherlands

We have established new values of time (VOTs) and values of travel time reliability (VORs) for use in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of transport projects in The Netherlands. This was the first national study in The Netherlands (and one of the first world-wide) to investigate these topics empirically in a joint framework. Stated preference (SP) questionnaires were designed for interviewing travellers, where the hypothetical alternatives were described in terms of travel time, travel costs and travel time reliability, the latter being presented to the respondents in the form of five possible travel times having equal probability. For passenger transport, we first collected interviews using an existing internet panel. Additional data collection recruitment was done by asking travellers at petrol stations/service areas, parking garages, stations, bus stops, airports and ports to participate in the survey. One important conclusion is that the SP survey using members of this internet panel leads to substantially lower VOTs than the SP survey with en-route recruitment, probably because of self-selection bias in the internet panel. We estimated discrete choice models in which the values of time differ between trips with different time and costs levels, different time and costs changes offered in the SP, and different observed characteristics of the respondents (e.g. education, income, age, household composition). By using a panel latent class model, we also account for unobserved differences between respondents in the value of time and for repeated measurements/panel effects. The reference values of time and the reference reliability ratios were estimated on the 2011 sample only, but the effect of time and cost level, time and cost changes offered and socio-economic attributes was estimated on both the 2009 and 2011 samples