Sex, lies and self-reported counts: Bayesian mixture models for heaping in longitudinal count data via birth-death processes

Surveys often ask respondents to report nonnegative counts, but respondents may misremember or round to a nearby multiple of 5 or 10. This phenomenon is called heaping, and the error inherent in heaped self-reported numbers can bias estimation. Heaped data may be collected cross-sectionally or longitudinally and there may be covariates that complicate the inferential task. Heaping is a well-known issue in many survey settings, and inference for heaped data is an important statistical problem. We propose a novel reporting distribution whose underlying parameters are readily interpretable as rates of misremembering and rounding. The process accommodates a variety of heaping grids and allows for quasi-heaping to values nearly but not equal to heaping multiples. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for longitudinal samples with covariates to infer both the unobserved true distribution of counts and the parameters that control the heaping process. Finally, we apply our methods to longitudinal self-reported counts of sex partners in a study of high-risk behavior in HIV-positive youth.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS809 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A parabolic free boundary problem with Bernoulli type condition on the free boundary

Consider the parabolic free boundary problem $$\Delta u - \partial_t u = 0 \textrm{in} \{u>0\}, |\nabla u|=1 \textrm{on} \partial\{u>0\} .$$ For a realistic class of solutions, containing for example {\em all} limits of the singular perturbation problem $$\Delta u_\epsilon - \partial_t u_\epsilon = \beta_\epsilon(u_\epsilon) \textrm{as} \epsilon\to 0,$$ we prove that one-sided flatness of the free boundary implies regularity. In particular, we show that the topological free boundary $\partial\{u>0\}$ can be decomposed into an {\em open} regular set (relative to $\partial\{u>0\}$) which is locally a surface with H\"older-continuous space normal, and a closed singular set. Our result extends the main theorem in the paper by H.W. Alt-L.A. Caffarelli (1981) to more general solutions as well as the time-dependent case. Our proof uses methods developed in H.W. Alt-L.A. Caffarelli (1981), however we replace the core of that paper, which relies on non-positive mean curvature at singular points, by an argument based on scaling discrepancies, which promises to be applicable to more general free boundary or free discontinuity problems

Sparse polynomial space approach to dissipative quantum systems: Application to the sub-ohmic spin-boson model

We propose a general numerical approach to open quantum systems with a coupling to bath degrees of freedom. The technique combines the methodology of polynomial expansions of spectral functions with the sparse grid concept from interpolation theory. Thereby we construct a Hilbert space of moderate dimension to represent the bath degrees of freedom, which allows us to perform highly accurate and efficient calculations of static, spectral and dynamic quantities using standard exact diagonalization algorithms. The strength of the approach is demonstrated for the phase transition, critical behaviour, and dissipative spin dynamics in the spin boson modelComment: 4 pages, 4 figures, revised version accepted for publication in PR

Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory beam tube component and module leak testing

Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) is a joint project of the California Institute of Technology and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology funded by the National Science Foundation. The project is designed to detect gravitational waves from astrophysical sources such as supernova and black holes. The LIGO project constructed observatories at two sites in the U.S. Each site includes two beam tubes (each 4 km long) joined to form an "L" shape. The beam tube is a 1.25 m diam 304 L stainless steel, ultrahigh vacuum tube that will operate at 1×10^–9 Torr or better. The beam tube was manufactured using a custom spiral weld tube mill from material processed to reduce the outgassing rate in order to minimize pumping costs. The integrity of the beam tube was assured by helium mass spectrometer leak testing each component of the beam tube system prior to installation. Each 2 km long, isolatable beam tube module was then leak tested after completion

Monte Carlo simulations reveal the straightening up of an end-grafted flexible chain with a rigid side chain

We have studied the conformational properties of a flexible end-grafted chain (length $N$) with a rigid side chain (length $S$) by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Depending on the lengths $N$ and $S$ and the branching site, $b$, we observe a considerable straightening of the flexible backbone as quantified via the gyration tensor. For $b=N$, i.e. when attaching the side chain to the free end of the flexible backbone, the effect was strongest

Occurrence and core-envelope structure of 1--4x Earth-size planets around Sun-like stars

Small planets, 1-4x the size of Earth, are extremely common around Sun-like stars, and surprisingly so, as they are missing in our solar system. Recent detections have yielded enough information about this class of exoplanets to begin characterizing their occurrence rates, orbits, masses, densities, and internal structures. The Kepler mission finds the smallest planets to be most common, as 26% of Sun-like stars have small, 1-2 R_e planets with orbital periods under 100 days, and 11% have 1-2 R_e planets that receive 1-4x the incident stellar flux that warms our Earth. These Earth-size planets are sprinkled uniformly with orbital distance (logarithmically) out to 0.4 AU, and probably beyond. Mass measurements for 33 transiting planets of 1-4 R_e show that the smallest of them, R < 1.5 R_e, have the density expected for rocky planets. Their densities increase with increasing radius, likely caused by gravitational compression. Including solar system planets yields a relation: rho = 2.32 + 3.19 R/R_e [g/cc]. Larger planets, in the radius range 1.5-4.0 R_e, have densities that decline with increasing radius, revealing increasing amounts of low-density material in an envelope surrounding a rocky core, befitting the appellation "mini-Neptunes." Planets of ~1.5 R_e have the highest densities, averaging near 10 g/cc. The gas giant planets occur preferentially around stars that are rich in heavy elements, while rocky planets occur around stars having a range of heavy element abundances. One explanation is that the fast formation of rocky cores in protoplanetary disks enriched in heavy elements permits the gravitational accumulation of gas before it vanishes, forming giant planets. But models of the formation of 1-4 R_e planets remain uncertain. Defining habitable zones remains difficult, without benefit of either detections of life elsewhere or an understanding of life's biochemical origins.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication Proc. Natl. Acad. Sc