The role of commercial real estate investments in the banking crisis of 1985-92

This article examines the role of commercial real estate investments in the banking crisis of 1985-92, an unprecedented period during which more than 1,300 banks failed. Bank failures are fundamentally important because of the unique role played by financial institutions in the provision of business credit. We discover three striking features of banks failing during this period. First, commercial real estate was only a factor in the bank failures of 1988-92. Second, construction loans played a much larger role in bank failures than permanent loans, and the relationship is strongest with construction loans booked during 1983-1985. Third, other ex ante risk measures are systematically related to banking failure throughout the sample period. These results suggest that risk-seeking banks brought about their own demise and commercial real estate, especially construction lending, was one of the vehicles.bank; bank failure; commercial bank; commercial real estate; construction lending; real estate

A CAMEL rating's shelf life

How quickly do the CAMEL ratings regulators assign to banks during on-site examinations become "stale"? One measure of the information content of CAMEL ratings is their ability to discriminate between banks that will fail and those that will survive. To assess the accuracy of CAMEL ratings in predicting failure, Rebel Cole and Jeffery Gunther use as a benchmark an offsite monitoring system based on publicly available accounting data. Their findings suggest that, if a bank has not been examined for more than two quarters, off-site monitoring systems usually provide a more accurate indication of survivability than its CAMEL rating. The lower predictive accuracy for CAMEL ratings “older” than two quarters causes the overall accuracy of CAMEL ratings to fall substantially below that of off-site monitoring systems. The higher predictive accuracy of off-site systems derives from both their timeliness—an updated off-site rating is available for every bank in every quarter—and the accuracy of the financial data on which they are based. Cole and Gunther conclude that off-site monitoring systems should continue to play a prominent role in the supervisory process, as a complement to on-site examinations.bank; bank failure; CAMEL; CAMEL rating; commercial bank; offsite supervision

Combined electronic nose and tongue for a flavour sensing system

We present a novel, smart sensing system developed for the flavour analysis of liquids. The system comprises both a so-called "electronic tongue" based on shear horizontal surface acoustic wave (SH-SAW) sensors analysing the liquid phase and a so-called "electronic nose" based on chemFET sensors analysing the gaseous phase. Flavour is generally understood to be the overall experience from the combination of oral and nasal stimulation and is principally derived from a combination of the human senses of taste (gustation) and smell (olfaction). Thus, by combining two types of microsensors, an artificial flavour sensing system has been developed. Initial tests conducted with different liquid samples, i.e. water, orange juice and milk (of different fat content), resulted in 100% discrimination using principal components analysis; although it was found that there was little contribution from the electronic nose. Therefore further flavour experiments were designed to demonstrate the potential of the combined electronic nose/tongue flavour system. Consequently, experiments were conducted on low vapour pressure taste-biased solutions and high vapour pressure, smell-biased solutions. Only the combined flavour analysis system could achieve 100% discrimination between all the different liquids. We believe that this is the first report of a SAW-based analysis system that determines flavour through the combination of both liquid and headspace analysis

Cosmological redshift distortion: deceleration, bias and density parameters from future redshift surveys of galaxies

The observed two-point correlation functions of galaxies in redshift space become anisotropic due to the geometry of the universe as well as due to the presence of the peculiar velocity field. On the basis of linear perturbation theory, we expand the induced anisotropies of the correlation functions with respect to the redshift $z$, and obtain analytic formulae to infer the deceleration parameter $q_0$, the density parameter $\Omega_0$ and the derivative of the bias parameter $d\ln b/dz$ at $z=0$ in terms of the observable statistical quantities. The present method does not require any assumption of the shape and amplitude of the underlying fluctuation spectrum, and thus can be applied to future redshift surveys of galaxies including the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We also evaluate quantitatively the systematic error in estimating the value of $\beta_0 \equiv \Omega_0^{0.6}/b$ from a galaxy redshift survey on the basis of a conventional estimator for $\beta_0$ which neglects both the geometrical distortion effect and the time evolution of the parameter $\beta(z)$. If the magnitude limit of the survey is as faint as 18.5 (in B-band) as in the case of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the systematic error ranges between -20% and 10% depending on the cosmological parameters. Although such systematic errors are smaller than the statistical errors in the current surveys, they will dominate the expected statistical error for future surveys.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figs, aastex, ApJ in press, replaced version includes minor correction

System and method for moving a probe to follow movements of tissue

An apparatus is described for moving a probe that engages moving living tissue such as a heart or an artery that is penetrated by the probe, which moves the probe in synchronism with the tissue to maintain the probe at a constant location with respect to the tissue. The apparatus includes a servo positioner which moves a servo member to maintain a constant distance from a sensed object while applying very little force to the sensed object, and a follower having a stirrup at one end resting on a surface of the living tissue and another end carrying a sensed object adjacent to the servo member. A probe holder has one end mounted on the servo member and another end which holds the probe

Secular trends in under-reporting in young people

Original article can be found at: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=BJN Copyright The Authors. DOI: 10.1079/BJN20041307National survey data show that reported energy intake has decreased in recent decades despite a rise in the prevalence of obesity. This disparity may be due to a secular increase in under-reporting or a quantitatively greater decrease in energy expenditure. This study examines the extent of under-reporting of energy intake in the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS) in young people aged 4–18 years in 1997 using published equations to calculate estimated energy requirements. It explores secular changes by comparison with the Diets of British School Children (DBSC) survey in 10–11- and 14–15-year-olds in 1983. In the NDNS, under-reporting (estimated energy requirements – energy intake) represented 21 % of energy needs in girls and 20 % in boys. The magnitude of under-reporting increased significantly with age (P<0·001) and was higher in overweight than lean individuals over 7 years of age. To compare reported energy intake in DBSC and NDNS, the estimated physical activity level from dietary records (dPAL=reported energy intake/predicted BMR) was calculated. If there were no under-reporting, dPAL would represent the subject's true activity level. However, dPAL from the NDNS was significantly lower than that from the DBSC by 8 % and 9 % in boys and girls for those aged 10–11 years, and by 14 % and 11 % for 14–15-year-olds respectively, reaching physiologically implausible levels in the 14–15-year-old girls (dPAL=1·17). If activity levels have remained constant between the two surveys, under-reporting has increased by 8–14 %. The evidence supports a secular trend towards increased under-reporting between the two surveys, but the precise magnitude cannot be quantified in the absence of historical measures of energy expenditure.Peer reviewe

Age, Metallicity, and the Distance to the Magellanic Clouds From Red Clump Stars

We show that the luminosity dependence of the red clump stars on age and metallicity can cause a difference of up to < ~0.6 mag in the mean absolute I magnitude of the red clump between different stellar populations. We show that this effect may resolve the apparent ~0.4 mag discrepancy between red clump-derived distance moduli to the Magellanic Clouds and those from, e.g., Cepheid variables. Taking into account the population effects on red clump luminosity, we determine a distance modulus to the LMC of 18.36 +/- 0.17 mag, and to the SMC of 18.82 +/- 0.20 mag. Our alternate red clump LMC distance is consistent with the value (m-M){LMC} = 18.50 +/- 0.10 adopted by the HST Cepheid Key Project. We briefly examine model predictions of red clump luminosity, and find that variations in helium abundance and core mass could bring the Clouds closer by some 0.10--0.15 mag, but not by the ~0.4 mag that would result from setting the mean absolute I-magnitude of the Cloud red clumps equal to the that of the Solar neighborhood red clump.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, AASTeX 4.0, 10 pages, 1 postscript figur