Who performs better? AVMs vs hedonic models

Purpose: In the literature there are numerous tests that compare the accuracy of automated valuation models (AVMs). These models first train themselves with price data and property characteristics, then they are tested by measuring their ability to predict prices. Most of them compare the effectiveness of traditional econometric models against the use of machine learning algorithms. Although the latter seem to offer better performance, there is not yet a complete survey of the literature to confirm the hypothesis. Design/methodology/approach: All tests comparing regression analysis and AVMs machine learning on the same data set have been identified. The scores obtained in terms of accuracy were then compared with each other. Findings: Machine learning models are more accurate than traditional regression analysis in their ability to predict value. Nevertheless, many authors point out as their limit their black box nature and their poor inferential abilities. Practical implications: AVMs machine learning offers a huge advantage for all real estate operators who know and can use them. Their use in public policy or litigation can be critical. Originality/value: According to the author, this is the first systematic review that collects all the articles produced on the subject done comparing the results obtained

Occurrence and Etiology of Brown Apical Necrosis on Persian (English) Walnut Fruit.

In 1998, a severe fruit drop was observed in Italy, principally on cv. Lara Persian (English) walnut (Juglans regia). Dropped fruit showed a brown patch at the blossom end and blackening and rot of inner tissues. The disease, called brown apical necrosis (BAN), was investigated on fruit collected in Italy and France in 1999. In 2000, studies were carried out in three walnut orchards located in Italy and in France to substantiate the etiology of BAN. Isolations performed from inner diseased fruit tissues yielded several fungi, in decreasing frequency of isolation: species of Fusarium and Alternaria, and one species each of Cladosporium, Colletotrichum, and Phomopsis. However, only Fusarium spp. were recovered from stigmas of BAN-affected fruit. The fungi associated with BAN-diseased fruit and species composition differed among locations and over time, confirming results obtained in previous investigations. The species of Fusarium used in pathogenicity tests reproduced BAN-disease symptoms when inoculated on fruit, whereas an Alternaria alternata isolate caused only limited necrosis of the style. However, the role of the other fungi commonly isolated from BAN-diseased fruit remains to be defined. The walnut blight pathogen, Xanthomonas arboricola pv. juglandis, occasionally was isolated from BAN-diseased fruit. No correlation was found between the extent of external brown patches and the size of inner lesions. Repeated isolations from and inoculations of fruit demonstrated that BAN can be considered a complex disease, and the inner infections originate from the style of the fruit

Leaf wax biomarkers in transit record river catchment composition

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2014): 6420–6427, doi:10.1002/2014GL061328.Rivers carry organic molecules derived from terrestrial vegetation to sedimentary deposits in lakes and oceans, storing information about past climate and erosion, as well as representing a component of the carbon cycle. It is anticipated that sourcing of organic matter may not be uniform across catchments with substantial environmental variability in topography, vegetation zones, and climate. Here we analyze plant leaf wax biomarkers in transit in the Madre de Dios River (Peru), which drains a forested catchment across 4.5 km of elevation from the tropical montane forests of the Andes down into the rainforests of Amazonia. We find that the hydrogen isotopic composition of leaf wax molecules (specifically the C28 n-alkanoic acid) carried by this tropical mountain river largely records the elevation gradient defined by the isotopic composition of precipitation, and this supports the general interpretation of these biomarkers as proxy recorders of catchment conditions. However, we also find that leaf wax isotopic composition varies with river flow regime over storm and seasonal timescales, which could in some cases be quantitatively significant relative to changes in the isotopic composition of precipitation in the past. Our results inform on the sourcing and transport of material by a major tributary of the Amazon River and contribute to the spatial interpretation of sedimentary records of past climate using the leaf wax proxy.This work was supported by funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation award 1227192 to A.J.W. and S.J.F. V.G. was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation award OCE-0928582.2015-03-2

Dual isotope evidence for sedimentary integration of plant wax biomarkers across an Andes-Amazon elevation transect

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2018. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here under a nonexclusive, irrevocable, paid-up, worldwide license granted to WHOI. It is made available for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 242 (2018): 64-81, doi:10.1016/j.gca.2018.09.007.Tropical montane regions tend to have high rates of precipitation, biological production, erosion, and sediment export, which together move material off the landscape and toward sedimentary deposits downstream. Plant wax biomarkers can be used to investigate sourcing of organic matter and are often used as proxies to reconstruct past climate and environment in sedimentary deposits. To understand how plant waxes are sourced within a wet, tropical montane catchment, we measure the stable C and H isotope composition (δ13C and δD) of n-alkanes and n-alkanoic acids in soils along an elevation transect and from sediments within the Madre de Dios River network along the eastern flank of the Peruvian Andes, draining an area of 75,400 km2 and 6 km of elevation. Soils yield systematic trends in plant wax δ13C (+1.75 and +1.31‰ km−1, for the C29n-alkanes and C30n-alkanoic acids respectively in the mineral horizon) and δD values (−10 and −12‰ km−1, respectively) across a 3.5 km elevation transect, which approximates trends previously reported from canopy leaves, though we find offsets between δ13C values in plants and soils. River suspended sediments generally follow soil isotopic gradients defined by catchment elevations (δ13C: +1.03 and +0.99‰ km−1 and δD: −10 to −7‰ km−1, for the C29n-alkanes and C30n-alkanoic acids respectively) in the wet season, with a lowering in the dry season that is less well-constrained. In a few river suspended sediments, petrogenic contributions and depth-sorting influence the n-alkane δ13C signal. Our dual isotope, dual compound class and seasonal sampling approach reveals no Andean-dominance in plant wax export, and instead that the sourcing of plant waxes in this very wet, forested catchment approximates that expected for spatial integration of the upstream catchment, thus with a lowland dominance on areal basis, guiding paleoenvironmental reconstructions in tropical montane regions. The dual isotope approach provides a cross-check on the altitudinal signals and can resolve ambiguity such as might be associated with vegetation change or aridity in paleoclimate records. Further, the altitude effect encoded within plant waxes presents a novel dual-isotope biomarker approach to paleoaltimetry.This material is based upon work supported by the US National Science Foundation under Grant No. EAR-1227192 to A.J.W and S.J.F for the river work

From Andes to Amazon: assessing branched tetraether lipids as tracers for soil organic carbon in the Madre de Dios River system

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kirkels, F. M. S. A., Ponton, C., Galy, V., West, A. J., Feakins, S. J., & Peterse, F. From Andes to Amazon: assessing branched tetraether lipids as tracers for soil organic carbon in the Madre de Dios River system. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 125(1), (2020): e2019JG005270, doi:10.1029/2019JG005270.We investigate the implications of upstream processes and hydrological seasonality on the transfer of soil organic carbon (OC) from the Andes mountains to the Amazon lowlands by the Madre de Dios River (Peru), using branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraether (brGDGT) lipids. The brGDGT signal in Andean soils (0.5 to 3.5 km elevation) reflects air temperature, with a lapse rate of −6.0 °C/km elevation (r 2 = 0.89, p < 0.001) and −5.6 °C/km elevation (r 2 = 0.89, p < 0.001) for organic and mineral horizons, respectively. The same compounds are present in river suspended particulate matter (SPM) with a lapse rate of −4.1 °C/km elevation (r 2 = 0.82, p < 0.001) during the wet season, where the offset in intercept between the temperature lapse rates for soils and SPM indicates upstream sourcing of brGDGTs. The lapse rate for SPM appears insensitive to an increasing relative contribution of 6‐methyl isomer brGDGTs produced within the river. River depth profiles show that brGDGTs are well mixed in the river and are not affected by hydrodynamic sorting. The brGDGTs accumulate relative to OC downstream, likely due to the transition of particulate OC to the dissolved phase and input of weathered soils toward the lowlands. The temperature‐altitude correlation of brGDGTs in Madre de Dios SPM contrasts with the Lower Amazon River, where the initial soil signature is altered by changes in seasonal in‐river production and variable provenance of brGDGTs. Our study indicates that brGDGTs in the Madre de Dios River system are initially soil derived and highlights their use to study OC sourcing in mountainous river systems.The brGDGT analyses were supported by NWO‐Veni grant 863.13.016 to F.P. This material is based upon work supported by the US National Science Foundation under grant EAR‐1227192 to A. J. W. and S. J. F. for the river fieldwork and lipid purification. In Perú, we thank the Servicio Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas por el Estado (SERNANP) and personnel of Manu and Tambopata National Parks for logistical assistance and permission to work in the protected areas. We thank the Explorers' Inn and the Pontifical Catholic University of Perú (PUCP), as well as the Amazon Conservation Association for the use of the Tambopata and Wayqecha Research Stations, respectively. For river fieldwork assistance, we thank M. Torres, A. Robles, and A. Cachuana. Soil samples were contributed by Andrew Nottingham and Patrick Meir. Logistical support was provided by Y. Malhi, J. Huaman, W. Huaraca Huasco, and other collaborators as part of the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystems Research Group ABERG (www.andesresearch.org). We thank Dominika Kasjaniuk for technical support at Utrecht. Two anonymous reviewers have provided valuable comments that have helped to improve this manuscript. Geochemical and brGDGT data are available in the PANGAEA Data Repository (Kirkels et al., 2019) and can be accessed at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.90617

Arctic deltaic lake sediments as recorders of fluvial organic matter deposition

© The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Frontiers in Earth Science 4 (2016): 77, doi:10.3389/feart.2016.00077.Arctic deltas are dynamic and vulnerable regions that play a key role in land-ocean interactions and the global carbon cycle. Delta lakes may provide valuable historical records of the quality and quantity of fluvial fluxes, parameters that are challenging to investigate in these remote regions. Here we study lakes from across the Mackenzie Delta, Arctic Canada, that receive fluvial sediments from the Mackenzie River when spring flood water levels rise above natural levees. We compare downcore lake sediments with suspended sediments collected during the spring flood, using bulk (% organic carbon, % total nitrogen, δ13C, Δ14C) and molecular organic geochemistry (lignin, leaf waxes). High-resolution age models (137Cs, 210Pb) of downcore lake sediment records (n = 11) along with lamina counting on high-resolution radiographs show sediment deposition frequencies ranging between annually to every 15 years. Down-core geochemical variability in a representative delta lake sediment core is consistent with historical variability in spring flood hydrology (variability in peak discharge, ice jamming, peak water levels). Comparison with earlier published Mackenzie River depth profiles shows that (i) lake sediments reflect the riverine surface suspended load, and (ii) hydrodynamic sorting patterns related to spring flood characteristics are reflected in the lake sediments. Bulk and molecular geochemistry of suspended particulate matter from the spring flood peak and lake sediments are relatively similar showing a mixture of modern higher-plant derived material, older terrestrial permafrost material, and old rock-derived material. This suggests that deltaic lake sedimentary records hold great promise as recorders of past (century-scale) riverine fluxes and may prove instrumental in shedding light on past behavior of arctic rivers, as well as how they respond to a changing climate.Funding was provided by the US National Science Foundation as part of the Arctic Great Rivers Observatory (NSF-0732522 and NSF-1107774), as well as the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (Rubicon #825.10.022, and Veni #863.12.004). Additional funding for the lake coring was provided from WHOI through its Ocean and Climate Change Institute

Changes in patient-reported outcome measures from the time of injury to return to play in adolescent athletes at secondary schools with an athletic trainer

Context: Typically, athletic trainers rely on clinician-centered measures to evaluate athletes’ return-to-play status. However, clinician-centered measures do not provide information regarding patients’ perceptions. Objective: To determine whether clinically important changes in patient-reported outcomes were observed from the time of lower extremity injury to the time of return to play in adolescent athletes. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: The National Athletic Treatment, Injury and Outcomes Network (NATION) program has captured injury and treatment data in 31 sports from 147 secondary schools across 26 states. A subsample of 24 schools participated in the outcomes study arm during the 20122013 and 20132014 academic years. Patients or Other Participants: To be included in this report, student-athletes must have sustained a knee, lower leg, ankle, or foot injury that restricted participation from sport for at least 3 days. A total of 76 initial assessments were started by athletes; for 69 of those, return-to-play surveys were completed and analyzed. Main Outcome Measure(s): All student-athletes completed generic patient-reported outcome measures (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System [PROMIS] survey, Global Rating of Change scale, and Numeric Pain Rating Scale) and, depending on body region, completed an additional region-specific measure (Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score or Foot and Ankle Ability Measure). All applicable surveys were completed at both the initial and return-to-play time points. Means and standard deviations for the total scores of each patient-reported outcome measure at each time point were calculated. Change scores that reflected the difference from the initial to the return-to-play time points were calculated for each participant and compared with established benchmarks for change. Results: The greatest improvement in patient-reported outcomes was in the region-specific forms, with scores ranging from 9.92 to 37.73 on the different region-specific subscales (Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score or Foot and Ankle Ability Measure; scores range from 0100). The region-specific subscales on average still showed a 21.8- to 37.5-point deficit in reported health at return to play. The PROMIS Lower Extremity score increased on average by 13 points; all other PROMIS scales were within normative values after injury. Conclusions: Adolescent athletes who were injured at a high school with an athletic trainer may have shown improvement in patient-reported outcomes over time, but when they returned to play, their outcome scores remained lower than norms from comparable athlete groups

Source to sink: Evolution of lignin composition in the Madre de Dios River system with connection to the Amazon basin and offshore:Lignin evolution in Amazon

While lignin geochemistry has been extensively investigated in the Amazon River, little is known about lignin distribution and dynamics within deep, stratified river channels or its transformations within soils prior to delivery to rivers. We characterized lignin phenols in soils, river particulate organic matter (POM), and dissolved organic matter (DOM) across a 4 km elevation gradient in the Madre de Dios River system, Peru, as well as in marine sediments to investigate the source-to-sink evolution of lignin. In soils, we found more oxidized lignin in organic horizons relative to mineral horizons. The oxidized lignin signature was maintained during transfer into rivers, and lignin was a relatively constant fraction of bulk organic carbon in soils and riverine POM. Lignin in DOM became increasingly oxidized downstream, indicating active transformation of dissolved lignin during transport, especially in the dry season. In contrast, POM accumulated undegraded lignin downstream during the wet season, suggesting that terrestrial input exceeded in-river degradation. We discovered high concentrations of relatively undegraded lignin in POM at depth in the lower Madre de Dios River in both seasons, revealing a woody undercurrent for its transfer within these deep rivers. Our study of lignin evolution in the soil-river-ocean continuum highlights important seasonal and depth variations of river carbon components and their connection to soil carbon pools, providing new insights into fluvial carbon dynamics associated with the transfer of lignin biomarkers from source to sink

Significance of perylene for source allocation of terrigenous organic matter in aquatic sediments.

Author Posting. © American Chemical Society, 2019. This is an open access article published under an ACS AuthorChoice License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Science and Technology 53(14), (2019):8244-8251, doi:10.1021/acs.est.9b02344.Perylene is a frequently abundant, and sometimes the only polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) in aquatic sediments, but its origin has been subject of a longstanding debate in geochemical research and pollutant forensics because its historical record differs markedly from typical anthropogenic PAHs. Here we investigate whether perylene serves as a source-specific molecular marker of fungal activity in forest soils. We use a well-characterized sedimentary record (1735 to 1999) from the anoxic-bottom waters of the Pettaquamscutt River basin, RI, USA to examine mass accumulation rates and isotope records of perylene, and compare them with total organic carbon and the anthropogenic PAH fluoranthene. We support our arguments with radiocarbon (14C) data of higher plant leaf-wax n-alkanoic acids. Isotope-mass balance calculations of perylene and n-alkanoic acids indicate that ~40 % of sedimentary organic matter is of terrestrial origin. Further, both terrestrial markers are pre-aged on millennial time-scales prior to burial in sediments and insensitive to elevated 14C concentrations following nuclear weapons testing in the mid-20th Century. Instead, changes coincide with enhanced erosional flux during urban sprawl. These findings suggest that perylene is definitely a product of soil derived fungi, and a powerful chemical tracer to study spatial and temporal connectivity between terrestrial and aquatic environments.We thank John King, Sean Sylva, Brad Hubeny, Peter Sauer, and Jim Broda for their help in sampling; Carl Johnson and Daniel Montluçon for their incessant help with analyses; as well as Mark Yunker for critical discussion on the perils of perylene. Professor Phil Meyers and two anonymous reviewers provided comments that improved the quality of the manuscript. U.M.H. acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation for his postdoctoral fellowship and T.I.E. and K.A.H. acknowledges the NSF for research grants CHE-0089172 and OCE-9708478.2020-06-1

The pulse of the Amazon: fluxes of dissolved organic carbon, nutrients, and ions from the world's largest river

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 35(4), (2021): e2020GB006895, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GB006895.The Amazon River drains a diverse tropical landscape greater than 6 million km2, culminating in the world's largest export of freshwater and dissolved constituents to the ocean. Here, we present dissolved organic carbon (DOC), organic and inorganic nitrogen (DON, DIN), orthophosphate (PO43−), and major and trace ion concentrations and fluxes from the Amazon River using 26 samples collected over three annual hydrographs. Concentrations and fluxes were predominantly controlled by the annual wet season flood pulse. Average DOC, DON, DIN, and PO43− fluxes (±1 s.d.) were 25.5 (±1.0), 1.14 (±0.05), 0.82 (±0.03), and 0.063 (±0.003) Tg yr−1, respectively. Chromophoric dissolved organic matter absorption (at 350 nm) was strongly correlated with DOC concentrations, resulting in a flux of 74.8 × 106 m−2 yr−1. DOC and DON concentrations positively correlated with discharge while nitrate + nitrite concentrations negatively correlated, suggesting mobilization and dilution responses, respectively. Ammonium, PO43−, and silica concentrations displayed chemostatic responses to discharge. Major and trace ion concentrations displayed clockwise hysteresis (except for chloride, sodium, and rubidium) and exhibited either dilution or chemostatic responses. The sources of weathered cations also displayed seasonality, with the highest proportion of carbonate- and silicate-derived cations occurring during peak and baseflow, respectively. Finally, our seasonally resolved weathering model resulted in an average CO2 consumption yield of (3.55 ± 0.11) × 105 mol CO2 km−2 yr−1. These results represent an updated and temporally refined quantification of dissolved fluxes that highlight the strong seasonality of export from the world's largest river and set a robust baseline against which to gauge future change.This work was supported by a grant from the Harbourton Foundation to R. G. M. Spencer and R. M. Holmes. T. W. Drake was supported by ETH Zurich core funding to J. Six. R. G. M. Spencer was additionally supported by NSF OCE-1333157.2021-09-1