Excess Worker Turnover and Fixed-Term Contracts: Causal Evidence in a Two-Tier System

Portuguese firms engage in intense reallocation, most employers simultaneously hire and separate from workers, resulting in high excess worker turnover flows. These flows are constrained by the employment protection gap between open-ended and fixed-term contracts. We explore a reform that increased the employment protection of open-ended contracts and generated a quasi-experiment. The causal evidence points to an increase in the share and in the excess turnover of fixed-term contracts in treated firms. The excess turnover of open-ended contracts remained unchanged. This result is consistent with a high degree of substitution between open-ended and fixed-term contracts. At the firm level, we also show that excess turnover is quite heterogeneous and quantify its association with firm, match, and worker characteristics.excess worker turnover, two-tier systems, quasi-experiment, fixed-term contracts

When Supply Meets Demand: Wage Inequality in Portugal

Wage inequality in Portugal increased over the last quarter of century. The period from 1982 to 1995 witnessed strong increases in both upper- and lower-tail inequality. A shortage of skills combined with skill-biased technological changes are at the core of this evolution. Since 1995, lower-tail inequality decreased, while upper-tail inequality increased at a slower rate. The supply of high-skilled workers more than doubled during this period, contributing significantly to the slowdown. Polarization of employment demand is the more credible explanation for the more recent evolution. As in other developed economies, for instance Germany and the United States, we show that institutions played a minor role in shaping changes in inequality.inequality, polarization, supply, demand, institutions

Identifying Unemployment Insurance Income Effects with a Quasi-Natural Experiment

This paper acknowledges that UI has a non-distortionary income effect generated by easing the liquidity constraints of the unemployed. Using an exogenous increase in the entitlement period as a quasi-experimental setting, we find evidence of an important income effect. The extension of the entitlement period prolongs unemployment spells, but its effect is decreasing with the degree of liquidity constraints (indexed by wages quintiles). An exception to this pattern is the behavior of individuals in the first wages quintile. The fact that the most constrained individuals extend the least their unemployment spells conforms to the nonstationarity of the job search process. This result points to the possibility that the UI system may become regressive, benefiting significantly less those at the bottom of the wage distribution, who find it harder to benefit from extended UI entitlements.

The Impact of Unemployment Insurance Generosity on Match Quality Distribution

This paper investigates the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) generosity on the distribution of match tenure. We show that more generous UI increases expected tenure, reducing the mass of the lower tail of match duration and increasing the duration of matches available. This impact is differentiated across education levels, with the larger benefits accruing to the less educated.

Uncertainty And Risk Analysis Of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Fan Charts Revisited

Since 1996 the Bank of England (BoE) has been publishing estimates of probability distribution of the future outcomes of inflation and output growth. These density forecasts, known as "fan charts", became very popular with other central banks (e.g. Riskbank) as a tool to quantify uncertainties and risks of conditional point forecasts. The BoE's procedure is mainly a methodology to determine the distribution of a linear combination of independent random variables. In this article we propose an alternative methodology that addresses two issues with the BoE procedure that may affect the estimation of the densities. The first issue relates to a statistical shortcut taken by the BoE that implicitly considers that the mode of the linear combination of random variables is the (same) linear combination of the modes of those variables. The second issue deals with the assumption of independence, which may be restrictive. An illustration of the new methodology is presented and its results compared with the BoE approach.

Physics of collisionless shocks - theory and simulation

Collisionless shocks occur in various fields of physics. In the context of space and astrophysics they have been investigated for many decades. However, a thorough understanding of shock formation and particle acceleration is still missing. Collisionless shocks can be distinguished into electromagnetic and electrostatic shocks. Electromagnetic shocks are of importance mainly in astrophysical environments and they are mediated by the Weibel or filamentation instability. In such shocks, charged particles gain energy by diffusive shock acceleration. Electrostatic shocks are characterized by a strong electrostatic field, which leads to electron trapping. Ions are accelerated by reflection from the electrostatic potential. Shock formation and particle acceleration will be discussed in theory and simulations