Hidden scaling patterns and universality in written communication

The temporal statistics exhibited by written correspondence appear to be media dependent, with features which have so far proven difficult to characterize. We explain the origin of these difficulties by disentangling the role of spontaneous activity from decision-based prioritizing processes in human dynamics, clocking all waiting times through each agent's `proper time' measured by activity. This unveils the same fundamental patterns in written communication across all media (letters, email, sms), with response times displaying truncated power-law behavior and average exponents near -3/2. When standard time is used, the response time probabilities are theoretically predicted to exhibit a bi-modal character, which is empirically borne out by our new years-long data on email. These novel perspectives on the temporal dynamics of human correspondence should aid in the analysis of interaction phenomena in general, including resource management, optimal pricing and routing, information sharing, emergency handling.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figure

Hierarchical stratification of Pareto sets

In smooth and convex multiobjective optimization problems the set of Pareto optima is diffeomorphic to an $m-1$ dimensional simplex, where $m$ is the number of objective functions. The vertices of the simplex are the optima of the individual functions and the $(k-1)$-dimensional facets are the Pareto optimal set of $k$ functions subproblems. Such a hierarchy of submanifolds is a geometrical object called stratification and the union of such manifolds, in this case the set of Pareto optima, is called a stratified set. We discuss how these geometrical structures generalize in the non convex cases, we survey the known results and deduce possible suggestions for the design of dedicated optimization strategies

Estimating COVID-19-induced excess mortality in Lombardy, Italy

We compare the expected all-cause mortality with the observed one for different age classes during the pandemic in Lombardy, which was the epicenter of the epidemic in Italy. The first case in Italy was found in Lombardy in early 2020, and the first wave was mainly centered in Lombardy. The other three waves, in Autumn 2020, March 2021 and Summer 2021 are also characterized by a high number of cases in absolute terms. A generalized linear mixed model is introduced to model weekly mortality from 2011 to 2019, taking into account seasonal patterns and year-specific trends. Based on the 2019 year-specific conditional best linear unbiased predictions, a significant excess of mortality is estimated in 2020, leading to approximately 35000 more deaths than expected, mainly arising during the first wave. In 2021, instead, the excess mortality is not significantly different from zero, for the 85+ and 15-64 age classes, and significant reductions with respect to the 2020 estimated excess mortality are estimated for other age classes

Nowcasting COVID-19 incidence indicators during the Italian first outbreak

A novel parametric regression model is proposed to fit incidence data typically collected during epidemics. The proposal is motivated by real-time monitoring and short-term forecasting of the main epidemiological indicators within the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy. Accurate short-term predictions, including the potential effect of exogenous or external variables are provided. This ensures to accurately predict important characteristics of the epidemic (e.g., peak time and height), allowing for a better allocation of health resources over time. Parameter estimation is carried out in a maximum likelihood framework. All computational details required to reproduce the approach and replicate the results are provided

Preparation of Neutral trans - Cis [Ru(O2CR)2P2(NN)], Cationic [Ru(O2CR)P2(NN)](O2CR) and Pincer [Ru(O2CR)(CNN)P2] (P = PPh3, P2= diphosphine) Carboxylate Complexes and their Application in the Catalytic Carbonyl Compounds Reduction

The diacetate complexes trans-[Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)2(PPh3)2(NN)] (NN = ethylenediamine (en) (1), 2-(aminomethyl)pyridine (ampy) (2), 2-(aminomethyl)pyrimidine (ampyrim) (3)) have been isolated in 76-88% yield by reaction of [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)2(PPh3)2] with the corresponding nitrogen ligands. The ampy-type derivatives 2 and 3 undergo isomerization to the thermodynamically most stable cationic complexes [Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)(PPh3)2(NN)]OAc (2a and 3a) and cis-[Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)2(PPh3)2(NN)] (2b and 3b) in methanol at RT. The trans-[Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)2(P2)2] (P2 = dppm (4), dppe (5)) compounds have been synthesized from [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)2(PPh3)2] by reaction with the suitable diphosphine in toluene at 95 \ub0C. The complex cis-[Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)2(dppm)(ampy)](6) has been obtained from [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)2(PPh3)2] and dppm in toluene at reflux and reaction with ampy. The derivatives trans-[Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)2P2(NN)] (7-16; NN = en, ampy, ampyrim, 8-aminoquinoline; P2 = dppp, dppb, dppf, (R)-BINAP) can be easily synthesized from [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)2(PPh3)2] with a diphosphine and treatment with the NN ligands at RT. Alternatively these compounds have been prepared from trans-[Ru(OAc)2(PPh3)2(NN)] by reaction with the diphosphine in MEK at 50 \ub0C. The use of (R)-BINAP affords trans-[Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)2((R)-BINAP)(NN)] (NN = ampy (11), ampyrim (15)) isolated as single stereoisomers. Treatment of the ampy-type complexes 8-15 with methanol at RT leads to isomerization to the cationic derivatives [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)P2(NN)]OAc (8a-15a; NN = ampy, ampyrim; P2 = dppp, dppb, dppf, (R)-BINAP). Similarly to 2, the dipivalate trans-[Ru(\u3ba1-OPiv)2(PPh3)2(ampy)] (18) is prepared from [Ru(\u3ba2-OPiv)2(PPh3)2] (17) and ampy in CHCl3. The pincer acetate [Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)(CNNOMe)(PPh3)2] (19) has been synthesized from [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)2(PPh3)2] and HCNNOMe ligand in 2-propanol with NEt3 at reflux. In addition, the dppb pincer complexes [Ru(\u3ba1-OAc)(CNN)(dppb)] (CNN = AMTP (20), AMBQPh (21)) have been obtained from [Ru(\u3ba2-OAc)2(PPh3)2], dppb, and HAMTP or HAMBQPh with NEt3, respectively. The acetate NN and pincer complexes are active in transfer hydrogenation with 2-propanol and hydrogenation with H2 of carbonyl compounds at S/C values of up to 10000 and with TOF values of up to 160000 h-1

Perturbation of metabolic pathways mediates the association of air pollutants with asthma and cardiovascular diseases

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic evidence indicates common risk factors, including air pollution exposure, for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, suggesting the involvement of common altered molecular pathways. OBJECTIVES: The goal was to find intermediate metabolites or metabolic pathways that could be associated with both air pollutants and health outcomes ("meeting-in-the-middle"), thus shedding light on mechanisms and reinforcing causality. METHODS: We applied a statistical approach named 'meet-in-the-middle' to untargeted metabolomics in two independent case-control studies nested in cohorts on adult-onset asthma (AOA) and cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (CCVD). We compared the results to identify both common and disease-specific altered metabolic pathways. RESULTS: A novel finding was a strong association of AOA with ultrafine particles (UFP; odds ratio 1.80 [1.26, 2.55] per increase by 5000 particles/cm3). Further, we have identified several metabolic pathways that potentially mediate the effect of air pollution on health outcomes. Among those, perturbation of Linoleate metabolism pathway was associated with air pollution exposure, AOA and CCVD. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest common pathway perturbations may occur as a consequence of chronic exposure to air pollution leading to increased risk for both AOA and CCVD

Causal effects of body mass index on airflow obstruction and forced mid-expiratory flow: a mendelian randomization study taking interactions and age-specific instruments into consideration toward a life course perspective

Obesity has complex links to respiratory health. Mendelian randomization (MR) enables assessment of causality of body mass index (BMI) effects on airflow obstruction and mid-expiratory flow. In the adult SAPALDIA cohort, recruiting 9,651 population-representative samples aged 18–60 years at baseline (female 51%), BMI and the ratio of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to forced vital capacity (FVC) as well as forced mid-expiratory flow (FEF25–75%) were measured three times over 20 follow-up years. The causal effects of BMI in childhood and adulthood on FEV1/FVC and FEF25–75% were assessed in predictive (BMI averaged over 1st and 2nd, lung function (LF) averaged over 2nd and 3rd follow-up; N = 2,850) and long-term cross-sectional models (BMI and LF averaged over all follow-ups; N = 2,728) by Mendelian Randomization analyses with the use of weighted BMI allele score as an instrument variable and two-stage least squares (2SLS) method. Three different BMI allele scores were applied to specifically capture the part of BMI in adulthood that likely reflects tracking of genetically determined BMI in childhood. The main causal effects were derived from models containing BMI (instrumented by BMI genetic score), age, sex, height, and packyears smoked as covariates. BMI interactions were instrumented by the product of the instrument (BMI genetic score) and the relevant concomitant variable. Causal effects of BMI on FEV1/FVC and FEF25–75% were observed in both the predictive and long-term cross-sectional models. The causal BMI- LF effects were negative and attenuated with increasing age, and stronger if instrumented by gene scores associated with childhood BMI. This non-standard MR approach interrogating causal effects of multiplicative interaction suggests that the genetically rooted part of BMI patterns in childhood may be of particular relevance for the level of small airway function and airflow obstruction later in life. The methodological relevance of the results is first to point to the importance of a life course perspective in studies on the etiological role of BMI in respiratory health, and second to point out novel methodological aspects to be considered in future MR studies on the causal effects of obesity related phenotypes

Surrogate Models and Mixtures of Experts in Aerodynamic Performance Prediction for Mission Analysis

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/140436/1/6.2014-2301.pd