Inferring the Evolution of a Large Earthquake from Its Acoustic Impacts on the Ionosphere

We investigate the possibility to constrain the evolution of the 2016 M7.8 Kaikoura earthquake evolution based on Global Positioning System signal-derived ionospheric total electron content (TEC) perturbations, that represent plasma responses to infrasonic acoustic waves (IAWs) generated by surface motion. This earthquake exhibited unusual complexity and some first-order aspects of its evolution remain unclear; for example, how and when the Papatea fault (PF) and the corresponding large surface deformation occurred. For various earthquake models, a seismic wave propagation code is used to simulate time-dependent surface deformations, which then excite IAWs in a 3D compressible nonlinear atmospheric model, coupled with a 2D nonlinear multispecies ionospheric plasma dynamic model. Our preferred finite-fault model reproduces the amplitudes, shapes, and time epochs of appearance of detected TEC perturbations well. Additionally, the incorporation of the PF, ruptured during the earthquake, results in the closest agreement between simulated and observed near-zenith vertical TEC perturbations, whereas its absence shows significant discrepancy. This supports the hypothesis that the PF was ruptured during the Kaikoura earthquake. Furthermore, the IAWs and resulting ionospheric plasma disturbances contain additional information on the PF rupture progression, including the timing of initiation and propagation direction, indicating new opportunities to further constrain the PF rupture with low elevation angle “slant” TEC data. The results confirm the ability for TEC measurements to constrain evolutions of large crustal earthquakes to provide new insight beyond traditional seismic and geodetic data sets

The 2009 Samoa and 2010 Chile Tsunamis as Observed in the Ionosphere using GPS Total Electron Content

Ground‐based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the Samoa earthquake of 29 September 2009 and the Chile earthquake of 27 February 2010. Both earthquakes produced ocean tsunamis that were destructive to coastal communities near the epicenters, and both were observed in tidal gauge and buoy measurements throughout the Pacific Ocean. We observe fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Global Ionospheric Mapping software. These TEC measurements were band‐pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range for tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in some locations (Hawaii and Japan), but not in others (Southern California or near the epicenters). Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be ∼0.1–0.2 TEC units for these events, on the order of ∼1% of the background TEC value. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami‐driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University’s Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere‐ionosphere coupled model, and are found to be in good agreement. Significant TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed coincided with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller sea surface height amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real‐time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems

Modeling of Ionospheric Responses to Atmospheric Acoustic and Gravity Waves Driven by the 2015 Nepal M w 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake

Near- and far-field ionospheric responses to atmospheric acoustic and gravity waves (AGWs) generated by surface displacements during the 2015 Nepal 7.8 Gorkha earthquake are simulated. Realistic surface displacements driven by the earthquake are calculated in three-dimensional forward seismic waves propagation simulation, based on kinematic slip model. They are used to excite AGWs at ground level in the direct numerical simulation of three-dimensional nonlinear compressible Navier-Stokes equations with neutral atmosphere model, which is coupled with a two-dimensional nonlinear multifluid electrodynamic ionospheric model. The importance of incorporating earthquake rupture kinematics for the simulation of realistic coseismic ionospheric disturbances (CIDs) is demonstrated and the possibility of describing faulting mechanisms and surface deformations based on ionospheric observations is discussed in details. Simulation results at the near-epicentral region are comparable with total electron content (TEC) observations in periods ( 3.3 and 6-10 min for acoustic and gravity waves, respectively), propagation velocities ( 0.92 km/s for acoustic waves) and amplitudes (up to 2 TECu). Simulated far-field CIDs correspond to long-period ( 4 mHz) Rayleigh waves (RWs), propagating with the same phase velocity of 4 km/s. The characteristics of modeled RW-related ionospheric disturbances differ from previously-reported observations based on TEC data; possible reasons for these differences are discussed

Detecting ionospheric TEC perturbations caused by natural hazards using a global network of GPS receivers: The Tohoku case study

Recent advances in GPS data processing have demonstrated that ground-based GPS receivers are capable of detecting ionospheric TEC perturbations caused by surface-generated Rayleigh, acoustic and gravity waves. There have been a number of publications discussing TEC perturbations immediately following the M 9.0 Tohoku earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011. Most investigators have focused on the ionospheric responses up to a few hours following the earthquake and tsunami. In our research, in addition to March 11, 2011 we investigate global ionospheric TEC perturbations a day before and after the event. We also compare indices of geomagnetic activity on all three days with perturbations in TEC, revealing strong geomagnetic storm conditions that are also apparent in processed GEONET TEC observations. In addition to the traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs)produced by the earthquake and tsunami, we also detect “regular” TIDs across Japan about 5 hours following the Tohoku event, concluding these are likely due to geomagnetic activity. The variety of observed TEC perturbations are consistent with tsunami-generated gravity waves, auroral activity, regular TIDs and equatorial fluctuations induced by increased geomagnetic activity. We demonstrate our capabilities to monitor TEC fluctuations using JPL’s real-time Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM) system. We show that a real-time global TEC monitoring network is able to detect the acoustic and gravity waves generated by the earthquake and tsunami. With additional real-time stations deployed, this new capability has the potential to provide real-time monitoring of TEC perturbations that could potentially serve as a plug-in to enhance existing early warning systems

The details of forward seismic wave simulation method

The description of forward seismic wave simulation methodology and a comparison of observed and simulated vertical displacements

Ionospheric Signatures of Tohoku-Oki Tsunami of March 11, 2011: Model Comparisons Near the Epicenter

We observe ionospheric perturbations caused by the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011. Perturbations near the epicenter were found in measurements of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from 1198 GPS receivers in the Japanese GEONET network. For the first time for this event, we compare these observations with the estimated magnitude and speed of a tsunami-driven atmospheric gravity wave, using an atmosphere-ionosphere-coupling model and a tsunami model of sea-surface height, respectively. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were observed moving away from the epicenter at approximate speeds of 3400 m/s, 1000 m/s and 200–300 m/s, consistent with Rayleigh waves, acoustic waves, and gravity waves, respectively. We focus our analysis on gravity waves moving south and east of the epicenter, since tsunamis propagating in the deep ocean have been shown to produce gravity waves detectable in ionospheric TEC in the past. Observed southeastward gravity wave perturbations, seen 60 min after the earthquake, are mostly between 0.5 to 1.5 TECU, representing up to 5% of the background vertical TEC (VTEC). Comparisons of observed TID gravity waves with the modeled tsunami speed in the ocean and the predicted VTEC perturbation amplitudes from an atmosphere-ionosphere-coupling model show the measurements and models to be in close agreement. Due to the dense GPS network and high earthquake magnitude, these are the clearest observations to date of the effect of a major earthquake and tsunami on the ionosphere near the epicenter. Such observations from a future real-time GPS receiver network could be used to validate tsunami models, confirm the existence of a tsunami, or track its motion where in situ buoy data is not available

The CuSPED Mission: CubeSat for GNSS Sounding of the Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Electron Density

The CubeSat for GNSS Sounding of Ionosphere-Plasmasphere Electron Density (CuSPED) is a 3U CubeSat mission concept that has been developed in response to the NASA Heliophysics program's decadal science goal of the determining of the dynamics and coupling of the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and atmosphere and their response to solar and terrestrial inputs. The mission was formulated through a collaboration between West Virginia University, Georgia Tech, NASA GSFC and NASA JPL, and features a 3U CubeSat that hosts both a miniaturized space capable Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receiver for topside atmospheric sounding, along with a Thermal Electron Capped Hemispherical Spectrometer (TECHS) for the purpose of in situ electron precipitation measurements. These two complimentary measurement techniques will provide data for the purpose of constraining ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling models and will also enable studies of the local plasma environment and spacecraft charging; a phenomenon which is known to lead to significant errors in the measurement of low-energy, charged species from instruments aboard spacecraft traversing the ionosphere. This paper will provide an overview of the concept including its science motivation and implementation

Ionospheric Simulation System for Satellite Observations and Global Assimilative Modeling Experiments (ISOGAME)

ISOGAME is designed and developed to assess quantitatively the impact of new observation systems on the capability of imaging and modeling the ionosphere. With ISOGAME, one can perform observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs). A typical OSSE using ISOGAME would involve: (1) simulating various ionospheric conditions on global scales; (2) simulating ionospheric measurements made from a constellation of low-Earth-orbiters (LEOs), particularly Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation data, and from ground-based global GNSS networks; (3) conducting ionospheric data assimilation experiments with the Global Assimilative Ionospheric Model (GAIM); and (4) analyzing modeling results with visualization tools. ISOGAME can provide quantitative assessment of the accuracy of assimilative modeling with the interested observation system. Other observation systems besides those based on GNSS are also possible to analyze. The system is composed of a suite of software that combines the GAIM, including a 4D first-principles ionospheric model and data assimilation modules, an Internal Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model that has been developed by international ionospheric research communities, observation simulator, visualization software, and orbit design, simulation, and optimization software. The core GAIM model used in ISOGAME is based on the GAIM++ code (written in C++) that includes a new high-fidelity geomagnetic field representation (multi-dipole). New visualization tools and analysis algorithms for the OSSEs are now part of ISOGAME

Ensemble Modeling with Data Assimilation Models: A New Strategy for Space Weather Specifications, Forecasts, and Science

The Earth’s Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (I-T-E) system varies markedly on a range of spatial and temporal scales and these variations have adverse effects on human operations and systems, including high-frequency communications, over-the-horizon radars, and survey and navigation systems that use Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. Consequently, there is a need to elucidate the underlying physical pro- cesses that lead to space weather disturbances and to both mitigate and forecast near-Earth space weather