The challenge of predicting financial crises: modelling and evaluating early warning systems

The main purpose of constructing "Early Warning Systems" (EWSs) for financial crises is to provide policy makers with some lead time to take pre-emptive actions that would help avoid, or at least mitigate, the damages of an approaching crisis. Accordingly, this study empirically evaluates and compares the effectiveness of the econometric models developed so far to construct EWSs. In addition, a more accurate (dynamic-recursive) forecasting technique is developed to generate better out-of-sample warning signals for currency, banking, and sovereign debt crises in the different regions of the world. The empirical analysis shows that the predictive performance of the EWS is significantly improved when using simple pooled models that account for the heterogeneity of the signalling indicators across the different regions. Moreover, including the entire crisis period in the sample outperforms the more common practice of dropping post-crisis-onset periods or using a multinomial specification of the crisis variable. In addition, the findings reveal that our dynamic-recursive technique provides more accurate out-of-sample forecasts for logit models. Finally, the dynamic signal extraction approach is recommended for policy makers who value avoiding financial crises at all costs, while the binomial logit model is more suitable for less conservative policy makers who consider the economic and social costs of false alarms

Generating dynamical black hole solutions

We prove a theorem that characterizes a large family of non-static solutions to Einstein equations, representing, in general, spherically symmetric Type II fluid. It is shown that the best known dynamical black hole solutions to Einstein equations are particular cases from this family. Thus we extend a recent work of Salgado \cite{ms} to non-static case. The spherically symmetric static black hole solutions, for Type I fluid, are also retrieved.Comment: 8 Pages, RevTe

Radiating black hole solutions in arbitrary dimensions

We prove a theorem that characterizes a large family of non-static solutions to Einstein equations in $N$-dimensional space-time, representing, in general, spherically symmetric Type II fluid. It is shown that the best known Vaidya-based (radiating) black hole solutions to Einstein equations, in both four dimensions (4D) and higher dimensions (HD), are particular cases from this family. The spherically symmetric static black hole solutions for Type I fluid can also be retrieved. A brief discussion on the energy conditions, singularities and horizons is provided.Comment: RevTeX 9 pages, no figure

Acquired air-filled lung cysts in childhood: pathogenesis of cysts of diverse etiologies; nuances of management

Background Air-filled pulmonary parenchymal cysts (pneumatoceles/PCs) – a pathological condition – involving the lung parenchyma may be congenital or acquired. In children, acquired cases are often caused by staphylococcal pneumonias, but other etiologies may also cause PCs and lead to diagnostic confusion.Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the natural history and clinicopathologic features of noncongenital, nonstaphylococcal PCs in children.Patients and methods Four children with nonstaphylococcal PCs were included in this study. A full history, clinical examination, relevant radiological and pathological findings, surgical intervention where relevant, and follow-up were analyzed.Results The cases described represent acquired PCs: one occurred after infarction following cardiac surgery, another was a subpleural pulmonary bleb of inflammatory origin, and the remaining two were post-traumatic pseudocysts. The inflammatory-process bleb and the postinfarction cysts presented with pneumothorax. The postinfarction and post-traumatic PCs responded to observation. The pulmonary bleb was excised.Conclusion Our understanding of the clinicopathologic features and pathogenesis of many types of acquired PCs is incomplete. We propose that PC formation has a basis in destruction of the distal airways of the lung. Damaged tissue may act as a valve, and cause air-trapping, which leads to PC formation. Cysts arising after infarction or after trauma usually resolve on observation. Subpleural blebs may require excision because of nonresolution and recurrence of pneumothorax

Shedding New Light on Kaon-Nucleon/Nuclei Interaction and Its Astrophysical Implications with the AMADEUS Experiment at DAFNE

The AMADEUS experiment deals with the investigation of the low-energy kaon-nuclei hadronic interaction at the DA{\Phi}NE collider at LNF-INFN, which is fundamental to respond longstanding questions in the non-perturbative QCD strangeness sector. The antikaon-nucleon potential is investigated searching for signals from possible bound kaonic clusters, which would open the possibility for the formation of cold dense baryonic matter. The confirmation of this scenario may imply a fundamental role of strangeness in astrophysics. AMADEUS step 0 consisted in the reanalysis of 2004/2005 KLOE dataset, exploiting K- absorptions in H, 4He, 9Be and 12C in the setup materials. In this paper, together with a review on the multi-nucleon K- absorption and the particle identification procedure, the first results on the {\Sigma}0-p channel will be presented including a statistical analysis on the possible accomodation of a deeply bound stateComment: 6 pages, 2 figure, 1 table, HADRON 2015 conferenc

Safety and Complications of Double-Lumen Tunnelled Cuffed Central Venous Dialysis Catheters : Clinical and radiological perspective from a tertiary centre in Oman

Objectives: This study aimed to assess the technical success, safety and immediate and delayed complications of double-lumen tunnelled cuffed central venous catheters (TVCs) at the Sultan Qaboos University Hospital (SQUH), Muscat, Oman. Methods: This retrospective study took place between January 2012 and October 2013. The clinical records and radiological data of all patients who underwent ultrasound- and fluoroscopy-guided TVC placement at SQUH during the study period were reviewed. Demographic data and information regarding catheter placement, technical success and peri- and post-procedure complications (such as catheter-related infections or thrombosis) were collected. Results: A total of 204 TVCs were placed in 161 patients. Of these, 68 were female (42.2%) and 93 were male (57.8%). The mean age of the patients was 54.4 ± 17.3 years. The most common reason for catheter placement was the initiation of dialysis (63.4%). A total of 203 procedures were technically successful (99.5%). The right internal jugular vein was the most common site of catheter placement (74.9%). Mild haemorrhage which resolved spontaneously occurred in 11 cases (5.4%). No other complications were observed. Subsequent follow-up data was available for 132 catheters (65.0%); of these, thrombosis-related catheter malfunction was observed in 22 cases (16.7%) and catheter-related infection in 29 cases (22.0%). Conclusion: Radiological-guided placement of tunnelled haemodialysis catheters can be performed safely with excellent technical success. The success rate of catheter insertion at SQUH was favourable in comparison with other studies reported in the literature