Anticipating climate change: knowledge use in participatory flood management in the river Meuse

Given the latest knowledge on climate change, the Dutch government wants to anticipate the increased risk of flooding. For the river Meuse in The Netherlands, the design discharge is estimated to increase from 3800m3/s to 4600m3/s. With the existing policy of “Room for the River”, this increase is to be accommodated without raising the dikes. At the same time the floodplains are often claimed for other functions, e.g. new housing or industrial estates. In 2001 the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management started the study “Integrated assessment of the river Meuse (IVM)” with the objectives of making an inventory of the probable physical effects of a design flood, assuming climate change, on the river Meuse in 2050, investigating possible spatial and technical measures to mitigate these effects, and finally combining various measures to create an integral strategy for flood protection, while at the same time increasing spatial quality. This paper presents the results of research into the decision making process that took place in order to achieve these objectives. Special attention was given to the role of scientific and technical knowledge in the decision making process, e.g. by investigating the effect of the quality of input data on acceptance by stakeholders, and the interactive use of a decision support system to visualise hydraulic effects. Conclusions on successes and pitfalls are drawn from observation and interviews with participants. It demonstrates how it is possible to integrate the necessary, technically complex knowledge in a political debate with stakeholders on how to deal with flood risk. Furthermore, the experience indicates in what area improvements could be made

Effects of electrode configuration and geometry on fiber preference in spinal cord stimulation

In contrast to the widespread assumption that dorsal column fibers are the primary targets of spinal cord stimulation by a dorsal epidural electrode, it appears that dorsal root fibers are recruited as well, and even preferentially under various conditions. This will, however, limit the coverage of the painful body areas with paresthesia, a prerequisite for the management of chronic pain. In order to favor the preferential stimulation of dorsal column fibers, advantage was taken of the different positions and orientations of fibers in the dorsal columns and dorsal roots. Using an SCS computer model, electrode configurations have been designed for the selective stimulation of the human dorsal column

Direct Method for Calculating Temperature-Dependent Transport Properties

We show how temperature-induced disorder can be combined in a direct way with first-principles scattering theory to study diffusive transport in real materials. Excellent (good) agreement with experiment is found for the resistivity of Cu, Pd, Pt (and Fe) when lattice (and spin) disorder are calculated from first principles. For Fe, the agreement with experiment is limited by how well the magnetization (of itinerant ferromagnets) can be calculated as a function of temperature. By introducing a simple Debye-like model of spin disorder parameterized to reproduce the experimental magnetization, the temperature dependence of the average resistivity, the anisotropic magnetoresistance and the spin polarization of a Ni$_{80}$Fe$_{20}$ alloy are calculated and found to be in good agreement with existing data. Extension of the method to complex, inhomogeneous materials as well as to the calculation of other finite-temperature physical properties within the adiabatic approximation is straightforward.Comment: Accepted as a Rapid Communication in Physical Review

SN 1993J VLBI (IV): A Geometric Determination of the Distance to M81 with the Expanding Shock Front Method

We compare the angular expansion velocities, determined with VLBI, with the linear expansion velocities measured from optical spectra for supernova 1993J in the galaxy M81, over the period from 7 d to ~9 yr after shock breakout. We estimate the distance to SN 1993J using the Expanding Shock Front Method (ESM). We find the best distance estimate is obtained by fitting the angular velocity of a point halfway between the contact surface and outer shock front to the maximum observed hydrogen gas velocity. We obtain a direct, geometric, distance estimate for M81 of D=3.96+-0.05+-0.29 Mpc with statistical and systematic error contributions, respectively, corresponding to a total standard error of $+-0.29 Mpc. The upper limit of 4.25 Mpc corresponds to the hydrogen gas with the highest observed velocity reaching no farther out than the contact surface a few days after shock breakout. The lower limit of 3.67 Mpc corresponds to this hydrogen gas reaching as far out as the forward shock for the whole period, which would mean that Rayleigh-Taylor fingers have grown to the forward shock already a few days after shock breakout. Our distance estimate is 9+-13 % larger than that of 3.63+-0.34 Mpc from the HST Key Project, which is near our lower limit but within the errors.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

The Opacity of Nearby Galaxies from Counts of Background Galaxies: II. Limits of the Synthetic Field Method

Recently, we have developed and calibrated the Synthetic Field Method (SFM) to derive the total extinction through disk galaxies. The method is based on the number counts and colors of distant background field galaxies that can be seen through the foreground object, and has been successfully applied to NGC 4536 and NGC 3664, two late-type galaxies located, respectively, at 16 and 11 Mpc. Here, we study the applicability of the SFM to HST images of galaxies in the Local Group, and show that background galaxies cannot be easily identified through these nearby objects, even with the best resolution available today. In the case of M 31, each pixel in the HST images contains 50 to 100 stars, and the background galaxies cannot be seen because of the intrinsic granularity due to strong surface brightness fluctuations. In the LMC, on the other hand, there is only about one star every six linear pixels, and the lack of detectable background galaxies results from a ``secondary'' granularity, introduced by structure in the wings of the point spread function. The success of the SFM in NGC 4536 and NGC 3664 is a natural consequence of the reduction of the intensity of surface brightness fluctuations with distance. When the dominant confusion factor is structure in the PSF wings, as is the case of HST images of the LMC, and would happen in M 31 images obtained with a 10-m diffraction- limited optical telescope, it becomes in principle possible to improve the detectability of background galaxies by subtracting the stars in the foreground object. However, a much better characterization of optical PSFs than is currently available would be required for an adequate subtraction of the wings. Given the importance of determining the dust content of Local Group galaxies, efforts should be made in that direction.Comment: 45 pages, 10 Postscript figure

Cepheid variables in the LMC cluster NGC 1866. I. New BVRI CCD photometry

We report BV(RI)c CCD photometric data for a group of seven Cepheid variables in the young, rich cluster NGC 1866 in the Large Magellanic Cloud. The photometry was obtained as part of a program to determine accurate distances to these Cepheids by means of the infrared surface brightness technique, and to improve the LMC Cepheid database for constructing Cepheid PL and PLC relations. Using the new data together with data from the literature, we have determined improved periods for all variables. For five fundamental mode pulsators, the light curves are now of excellent quality and will lead to accurate distance and radius determinations once complete infrared light curves and radial velocity curves for these variables become available.Comment: To appear in ApJ Supp., AASTeX, 24 pages, 8 tables, 8 figure

The Opacity of Spiral Galaxy Disks VIII: Structure of the Cold ISM

The quantity of dust in a spiral disk can be estimated using the dust's typical emission or the extinction of a known source. In this paper, we compare two techniques, one based on emission and one on absorption, applied on sections of fourteen disk galaxies. The two measurements reflect, respectively the average and apparent optical depth of a disk section. Hence, they depend differently on the average number and optical depth of ISM structures in the disk. The small scale geometry of the cold ISM is critical for accurate models of the overall energy budget of spiral disks. ISM geometry, relative contributions of different stellar populations and dust emissivity are all free parameters in galaxy Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) models; they are also sometimes degenerate, depending on wavelength coverage. Our aim is to constrain typical ISM geometry. The apparent optical depth measurement comes from the number of distant galaxies seen in HST images through the foreground disk. We measure the IR flux in images from the {\it Spitzer} Infrared Nearby Galaxy Survey in the same section of the disk that was covered by HST. A physical model of the dust is fit to the SED to estimate the dust surface density, mean temperature, and brightness in these disk sections. The surface density is subsequently converted into the average optical depth estimate. The two measurements generally agree. The ratios between the measured average and apparent optical depths of the disk sections imply optically thin clouds in these disks. Optically thick disks, are likely to have more than a single cloud along the line-of-sight.Comment: 31 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in A

Dietary cadmium intake and fecundability in a North American preconception cohort study

Objective To evaluate the association between dietary cadmium intake (D-Cd) and fecundability. Diet is one of the main sources of cadmium, and D-Cd is often used as indicator of cadmium exposure, particularly in non-smoking populations. In a previous preconception cohort study of 501 couples,1 high female cadmium concentrations measured in whole blood were associated with reduced fecundability. Design Prospective cohort study (2013-2018). Materials and Methods Pregnancy Online Study (PRESTO) is a North American prospective preconception cohort of pregnancy planners. At baseline, female participants aged 21-45 years completed a web-based questionnaire on demographic, lifestyle, medical and reproductive factors. Ten days after enrollment, participants completed the National Cancer Institute Dietary History Questionnaire II, a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) of average intake during the previous year. D-Cd (\u3bcg/day) was estimated by combining FFQ responses with US Food and Drug Administration data on food cadmium content. Participants were then followed for up to 12 months or until reported pregnancy, whichever came first. The analysis included 4,768 women attempting to conceive for 646 cycles at study entry and not using fertility treatment. We used a proportional probabilities regression model to estimate fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI), smoking history, parity, physical activity, last method of contraception, daily use of multivitamins, race/ethnicity, education, income, geographic region, and the 2010 healthy eating index score. We used the nutrient residual approach to adjust for energy intake. Results Median D-Cd was 8.0 \u3bcg/day (interquartile range: 7.0-9.1 \u3bcg/day). The top 5 contributors to D-Cd were nuts and seeds; fried potatoes; dark green lettuce; cooked greens; and white potatoes. Compared with an average D-Cd of <6.8 \u3bcg/day, FRs for D-Cd quintiles of 6.8-7.6, 7.7-8.4, 8.5-9.5, and 659.6 \u3bcg/day were 1.03 (CI: 0.92-1.14), 1.07 (CI: 0.96-1.18), 1.07 (CI: 0.96-1.19), and 1.08 (0.97-1.20), respectively. Results were not appreciably different among never smokers with no current passive smoke exposure, for whom cadmium exposure from other sources (e.g., cigarettes) would be lower (respective FRs: 1.02, 1.05, 1.06 and 1.02). Results did not differ materially by age (<30 vs. 6530 years), BMI (<30 vs. 6530 kg/m2), total fiber intake (<25 vs. 6525 g/day), geographic region of residence (West, Midwest, Northeast, South, Canada), or attempt time at study entry (<3 vs. 653 cycles). Conclusions Dietary intake of cadmium was not appreciably associated with fecundability, though exposure misclassification and confounding could explain the null results. References 1 Buck Louis GM, Sundaram R, Schisterman EF, Sweeney AM, Lynch CD, Gore-Langton RE, Chen Z, Kim S, Caldwell KL, Barr DB. Heavy metals and couple fecundity, the LIFE Study. Chemosphere. 2012 Jun;87(11):1201-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2012.01.017. Epub 2012 Feb 4. PubMed PMID: 22309709; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC3327819