SoS in Disasters: Why following the manual can be a mistake

According to both the US Geological Survey and the World Bank, $280 billion dollars could have been saved if$40 billion dollars had been invested in disaster prevention. Natural and human-made disasters that have occurred over the last few years show that there is a gap in disaster prevention caused by the interconnected nature of risks, which cannot be foreseen with current risk management methods. In this paper we point out how disaster management could benefit from a SoS approach in emergency response and preparedness strategies. Using recent disasters as case studies, we identify some keys to success in managing a SoS in preparation, during and in the aftermath of a disaster. In particular, we discuss the idea of the interconnectedness of risks in independent and interdependent systems and the application of Boardman and Sauser’s concept of “creative disobedience”, which are fundamental for goal achievement of systems belonging to a SoS

They are Small Worlds After All: Revised Properties of Kepler M Dwarf Stars and their Planets

We classified the reddest ($r-J>2.2$) stars observed by the NASA $Kepler$ mission into main sequence dwarf or evolved giant stars and determined the properties of 4216 M dwarfs based on a comparison of available photometry with that of nearby calibrator stars, as well as available proper motions and spectra. We revised the properties of candidate transiting planets using the stellar parameters, high-resolution imaging to identify companion stars, and, in the case of binaries, fitting light curves to identify the likely planet host. In 49 of 54 systems we validated the primary as the host star. We inferred the intrinsic distribution of M dwarf planets using the method of iterative Monte Carlo simulation. We compared several models of planet orbital geometry and clustering and found that one where planets are exponentially distributed and almost precisely coplanar best describes the distribution of multi-planet systems. We determined that $Kepler$ M dwarfs host an average of $2.2 \pm 0.3$ planets with radii of 1-4$R_{\oplus}$ and orbital periods of 1.5-180 d. The radius distribution peaks at $\sim 1.2R_{\oplus}$ and is essentially zero at $4R_{\oplus}$, although we identify three giant planet candidates other than the previously confirmed Kepler-45b. There is suggestive but not significant evidence that the radius distribution varies with orbital period. The distribution with logarithmic orbital period is flat except for a decline for orbits less than a few days. Twelve candidate planets, including two Jupiter-size objects, experience an irradiance below the threshold level for a runaway greenhouse on an Earth-like planet and are thus in a "habitable zone".Comment: MNRAS, in press. Tables 1, 3, and 4 are available in electronic form in the "anc" director

Polarization observables in the longitudinal basis for pseudo-scalar meson photoproduction using a density matrix approach

The complete expression for the intensity in pseudo-scalar meson photoproduction with a polarized beam, target, and recoil baryon is derived using a density matrix approach that offers great economy of notation. A Cartesian basis with spins for all particles quantized along a single direction, the longitudinal beam direction, is used for consistency and clarity in interpretation. A single spin-quantization axis for all particles enables the amplitudes to be written in a manifestly covariant fashion with simple relations to those of the well-known CGLN formalism. Possible sign discrepancies between theoretical amplitude-level expressions and experimentally measurable intensity profiles are dealt with carefully. Our motivation is to provide a coherent framework for coupled-channel partial-wave analysis of several meson photoproduction reactions, incorporating recently published and forthcoming polarization data from Jefferson Lab.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

A simple tool to predict admission at the time of triage

Aim To create and validate a simple clinical score to estimate the probability of admission at the time of triage. Methods This was a multicentre, retrospective, cross-sectional study of triage records for all unscheduled adult attendances in North Glasgow over 2 years. Clinical variables that had significant associations with admission on logistic regression were entered into a mixed-effects multiple logistic model. This provided weightings for the score, which was then simplified and tested on a separate validation group by receiving operator characteristic (ROC) analysis and goodness-of-fit tests. Results 215 231 presentations were used for model derivation and 107 615 for validation. Variables in the final model showing clinically and statistically significant associations with admission were: triage category, age, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), arrival by ambulance, referral source and admission within the last year. The resulting 6-variable score showed excellent admission/discharge discrimination (area under ROC curve 0.8774, 95% CI 0.8752 to 0.8796). Higher scores also predicted early returns for those who were discharged: the odds of subsequent admission within 28 days doubled for every 7-point increase (log odds=+0.0933 per point, p&#60;0.0001). Conclusions This simple, 6-variable score accurately estimates the probability of admission purely from triage information. Most patients could accurately be assigned to ‘admission likely’, ‘admission unlikely’, ‘admission very unlikely’ etc., by setting appropriate cut-offs. This could have uses in patient streaming, bed management and decision support. It also has the potential to control for demographics when comparing performance over time or between departments.</p

Synthesizing Imperative Programs from Examples Guided by Static Analysis

We present a novel algorithm that synthesizes imperative programs for introductory programming courses. Given a set of input-output examples and a partial program, our algorithm generates a complete program that is consistent with every example. Our key idea is to combine enumerative program synthesis and static analysis, which aggressively prunes out a large search space while guaranteeing to find, if any, a correct solution. We have implemented our algorithm in a tool, called SIMPL, and evaluated it on 30 problems used in introductory programming courses. The results show that SIMPL is able to solve the benchmark problems in 6.6 seconds on average.Comment: The paper is accepted in Static Analysis Symposium (SAS) '17. The submission version is somewhat different from the version in arxiv. The final version will be uploaded after the camera-ready version is read

Metal Substitution as the Method of Modifying Electronic Structure of Metal-Organic Frameworks.

Targeted modification of electronic structure is an important step in the optimization of metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) for photovoltaic, sensing, and photocatalytic applications. The key parameters to be controlled include the band gap, the absolute energy position of band edges, the excited state charge separation, and degree of hybridization between metal and ligand sites. Partial metal replacement, or metal doping, within secondary building units is a promising, yet relatively unexplored route to modulate these properties in MOFs. Therefore, in the present study, a general method for selecting metal dopant is worked out in theory and validated by experiment, retaining MIL-125 and UiO-66 as the model systems. Metal mixing enables targeted optimization of key electronic structure parameters. This method is applicable to any MOF architecture and can serve as a roadmap for future synthesis of MOFs with predefined properties

Educational Returns, ability composition and cohort effects : theory and evidence for cohorts of early-career UK graduates

An increase over time in the proportion of young people obtaining a degree is likely to impact on the relative ability compositions (i) of graduates and non-graduates and (ii) across graduates with different classes of degree award. In a signalling framework, we examine the implications of this on biases across cohorts in estimates of educational returns. In an empirical analysis, we exploit administrative data on whole populations of UK university students for ten graduate cohorts to investigate the extent to which early labour market outcomes vary with class of degree awarded. Consistent with our theoretical model, we find that returns by degree class increased across cohorts during a period of substantial graduate expansion. We also corroborate the empirical findings with evidence from complementary data on graduate sample surveys.Educational Returns ; College Wage Premium ; Degree Class ; Ability Bias ; Statistical Discrimination

The Role of Multiplicity in Disk Evolution and Planet Formation

The past decade has seen a revolution in our understanding of protoplanetary disk evolution and planet formation in single star systems. However, the majority of solar-type stars form in binary systems, so the impact of binary companions on protoplanetary disks is an important element in our understanding of planet formation. We have compiled a combined multiplicity/disk census of Taurus-Auriga, plus a restricted sample of close binaries in other regions, in order to explore the role of multiplicity in disk evolution. Our results imply that the tidal influence of a close (<40 AU) binary companion significantly hastens the process of protoplanetary disk dispersal, as ~2/3 of all close binaries promptly disperse their disks within <1 Myr after formation. However, prompt disk dispersal only occurs for a small fraction of wide binaries and single stars, with ~80%-90% retaining their disks for at least ~2--3 Myr (but rarely for more than ~5 Myr). Our new constraints on the disk clearing timescale have significant implications for giant planet formation; most single stars have 3--5 Myr within which to form giant planets, whereas most close binary systems would have to form giant planets within <1 Myr. If core accretion is the primary mode for giant planet formation, then gas giants in close binaries should be rare. Conversely, since almost all single stars have a similar period of time within which to form gas giants, their relative rarity in RV surveys indicates either that the giant planet formation timescale is very well-matched to the disk dispersal timescale or that features beyond the disk lifetime set the likelihood of giant planet formation.Comment: Accepted to ApJ; 15 pages, 3 figures, 3 tables in emulateapj forma