Strategy and Choice in the 1988 Presidential Primaries

In recent years, thinking about the American Presidential primaries has been dominated by the image of Carter's victory in 1976. Conventional wisdom in the eighties has advised Presidential candidates to focus on the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, and to at least match, or better yet, exceed the expectations that the press, pollsters, and pundits have for them in those states. The successful campaign, it was thought, had to force the competition out by the end of March in order to lock up the nomination before the convention. This common wisdom - the so-called "momentum theory" - will now have to be revised as a result of what happened in the 1988 primaries. While one candidate from each patty did eventually emerge victorious in 1988, no one followed the Carter script as closely as expected. The Democratic race was not clearly resolved until Dukakis managed consecutive victories over Jackson in Wisconsin (April 5), New York (April 19) and Pennsylvania (April 26). On the Republican side, even though the race was over after Super Tuesday, the conventional "momentum" story was still marred by the odd-and in the end, meaningless-­outcome in Iowa Republican caucuses. Bush exceeded expectations in Iowa, but in a negative direction, and both Dole and Robertson were unable to convert their successes into any advantage in New Hampshire and the South. In this paper, we use data from a series of 12 exit polls conducted by the Los Angeles Times to explain the course of the 1988 Democratic and Republican presidential primary campaigns. The Los Angeles Times sample of primaries includes the critical early Democratic and Republican contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, six Super Tuesday states, and the Democratic primaries in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and California. The story we tell is quite simple. Momentum in both races was slowed by regionalism, and in the Democratic contest specifically, by the non-strategic support that blacks and affluent liberal whites gave Jesse Jackson. Momentum accelerated in the New York and Pennsylvania primaries as moderate and Jewish voters strategically switched to Dukakis in order to block Jesse Jackson's nomination. Both Bush and Dukakis staked out positions for themselves near the center of the ideological spectrum in their respective parties. As it turned out, the distribution of voter preferences, combined with strategic complications typical of multicandidate races, served to make the middle an advantageous spot for the victorious candidates

Markov semigroups, monoids, and groups

A group is Markov if it admits a prefix-closed regular language of unique representatives with respect to some generating set, and strongly Markov if it admits such a language of unique minimal-length representatives over every generating set. This paper considers the natural generalizations of these concepts to semigroups and monoids. Two distinct potential generalizations to monoids are shown to be equivalent. Various interesting examples are presented, including an example of a non-Markov monoid that nevertheless admits a regular language of unique representatives over any generating set. It is shown that all finitely generated commutative semigroups are strongly Markov, but that finitely generated subsemigroups of virtually abelian or polycyclic groups need not be. Potential connections with word-hyperbolic semigroups are investigated. A study is made of the interaction of the classes of Markov and strongly Markov semigroups with direct products, free products, and finite-index subsemigroups and extensions. Several questions are posed.Comment: 40 pages; 3 figure

A characterization of those automata that structurally generate finite groups

Antonenko and Russyev independently have shown that any Mealy automaton with no cycles with exit--that is, where every cycle in the underlying directed graph is a sink component--generates a fi- nite (semi)group, regardless of the choice of the production functions. Antonenko has proved that this constitutes a characterization in the non-invertible case and asked for the invertible case, which is proved in this paper

On the informational content of wage offers

This article investigates signaling and screening roles of wage offers in a single-play matching model with two-sided unobservable characteristics. It generates the following predictions as matching equilibrium outcomes: (i) “good” jobs offer premia if “high-quality” worker population is large; (ii) “bad” jobs pay compensating differentials if the proportion of “good” jobs to “low-quality” workers is large; (iii) all firms may offer a pooling wage in markets dominated by “high-quality” workers and firms; or (iv) Gresham’s Law prevails: “good” types withdraw if “bad” types dominate the population. The screening/signaling motive thus has the potential of explaining a variety of wage patterns

Strategy and Choice in the 1988 Presidential Primaries

In recent years, thinking about the American Presidential primaries has been dominated by the image of Carter's victory in 1976. Conventional wisdom in the eighties has advised Presidential candidates to focus on the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, and to at least match, or better yet, exceed the expectations that the press, pollsters, and pundits have for them in those states. The successful campaign, it was thought, had to force the competition out by the end of March in order to lock up the nomination before the convention. This common wisdom - the so-called "momentum theory" - will now have to be revised as a result of what happened in the 1988 primaries. While one candidate from each patty did eventually emerge victorious in 1988, no one followed the Carter script as closely as expected. The Democratic race was not clearly resolved until Dukakis managed consecutive victories over Jackson in Wisconsin (April 5), New York (April 19) and Pennsylvania (April 26). On the Republican side, even though the race was over after Super Tuesday, the conventional "momentum" story was still marred by the odd-and in the end, meaningless-­outcome in Iowa Republican caucuses. Bush exceeded expectations in Iowa, but in a negative direction, and both Dole and Robertson were unable to convert their successes into any advantage in New Hampshire and the South. In this paper, we use data from a series of 12 exit polls conducted by the Los Angeles Times to explain the course of the 1988 Democratic and Republican presidential primary campaigns. The Los Angeles Times sample of primaries includes the critical early Democratic and Republican contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, six Super Tuesday states, and the Democratic primaries in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and California. The story we tell is quite simple. Momentum in both races was slowed by regionalism, and in the Democratic contest specifically, by the non-strategic support that blacks and affluent liberal whites gave Jesse Jackson. Momentum accelerated in the New York and Pennsylvania primaries as moderate and Jewish voters strategically switched to Dukakis in order to block Jesse Jackson's nomination. Both Bush and Dukakis staked out positions for themselves near the center of the ideological spectrum in their respective parties. As it turned out, the distribution of voter preferences, combined with strategic complications typical of multicandidate races, served to make the middle an advantageous spot for the victorious candidates

Perception of soundscapes : an interdisciplinary approach

This paper takes an overall view of findings from the Positive Soundscape Project, a large inter-disciplinary soundscapes study. Qualitative fieldwork (soundwalks and focus groups) have found that soundscape perception is influenced by cognitive effects such as the meaning of a soundscape and its components, and how information is conveyed by a soundscape, for example on the behaviour of people within the soundscape. Three significant clusters were found in the language people use to describe soundscapes: sound sources, sound descriptors and soundscape descriptors. Results from listening tests and soundwalks have been integrated to show that the two principal dimensions of soundscape emotional response seem to be calmness and vibrancy. Further, vibrancy seems to have two aspects: organisation of sounds and changes over time. The possible application of the results to soundscape assessment and design are briefly discussed

Renormalization group approach to energy level statistics at the integer quantum Hall transition

We extend the real-space renormalization group (RG) approach to the study of the energy level statistics at the integer quantum Hall (QH) transition. Previously it was demonstrated that the RG approach reproduces the critical distribution of the {\em power} transmission coefficients, i.e., two-terminal conductances, $P_{\text c}(G)$, with very high accuracy. The RG flow of $P(G)$ at energies away from the transition yielded the value of the critical exponent, $\nu$, that agreed with most accurate large-size lattice simulations. To obtain the information about the level statistics from the RG approach, we analyze the evolution of the distribution of {\em phases} of the {\em amplitude} transmission coefficient upon a step of the RG transformation. From the fixed point of this transformation we extract the critical level spacing distribution (LSD). This distribution is close, but distinctively different from the earlier large-scale simulations. We find that away from the transition the LSD crosses over towards the Poisson distribution. Studying the change of the LSD around the QH transition, we check that it indeed obeys scaling behavior. This enables us to use the alternative approach to extracting the critical exponent, based on the LSD, and to find $\nu=2.37\pm0.02$ very close to the value established in the literature. This provides additional evidence for the surprising fact that a small RG unit, containing only five nodes, accurately captures most of the correlations responsible for the localization-delocalization transition.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure

On Bootstrap Percolation in Living Neural Networks

Recent experimental studies of living neural networks reveal that their global activation induced by electrical stimulation can be explained using the concept of bootstrap percolation on a directed random network. The experiment consists in activating externally an initial random fraction of the neurons and observe the process of firing until its equilibrium. The final portion of neurons that are active depends in a non linear way on the initial fraction. The main result of this paper is a theorem which enables us to find the asymptotic of final proportion of the fired neurons in the case of random directed graphs with given node degrees as the model for interacting network. This gives a rigorous mathematical proof of a phenomena observed by physicists in neural networks

Observation of a large parity nonconserving analyzing power in Xe

A large parity nonconserving longitudinal analyzing power was discovered in polarized-neutron transmission through Xe. An analyzing power of 4.3±0.2% was observed in a p-wave resonance at En=3.2 eV. The measurement was performed with a liquid Xe target of natural isotopic abundance that was placed in the polarized epithermal neutron beam, flight path 2, at the Manuel Lujan Neutron Science Center. This apparatus was constructed by the TRIPLE Collaboration, and has been used for studies of parity symmetry in compound nuclear resonances. Part of the motivation of the experiment was to discover a nucleus appropriate for a sensitive test of time-reversal invariance in polarized-neutron transmission. The large analyzing power of the observed resonance may make it possible to design a test of time reversal invariance using a polarized-Xe target

Self-interest And Public Interest: The Motivations Of Political Actors

Self-Interest and Public Interest in Western Politics showed that the public, politicians, and bureaucrats are often public spirited. But this does not invalidate public-choice theory. Public-choice theory is an ideal type, not a claim that self-interest explains all political behavior. Instead, public-choice theory is useful in creating rules and institutions that guard against the worst case, which would be universal self-interestedness in politics. In contrast, the public-interest hypothesis is neither a comprehensive explanation of political behavior nor a sound basis for institutional design