How accurate are commercial-real-estate appraisals? evidence from 25 years of NCREIF sales data

In this study, we provide new evidence on the performance measurement and reporting of commercial real estate returns. We do so by examining the accuracy of commercial-real-estate appraisals that occurred prior to the sale of properties from the NCREIF National Property Index (“NPI”) during 1984 – 2010, a period which spans two up-and-down cycles of the market. We find that, on average, appraisals are more than 12% above, or below, subsequent sales prices that take place two quarters following the appraisal. Even in a portfolio context, allowing for offsetting positive and negative differences, appraisals are off by an average of 4% – 5 % of value, even after adjusting for capital appreciation during those two quarters. We also provide new evidence regarding how, and by how much, appraised values lag behind sales prices. We find that appraisals appear to lag the true sales prices, falling significantly below in hot markets and remaining significantly above in cold markets. This new evidence provides guidance to investors, regulators and others about how to interpret real-estate indices like the NPI that are based upon appraised values, in both a rising and falling market. Finally, we find that this “appraisal error” is largely systematic; we can explain more than half of the variation in the signed percentage difference in sales price and appraised value. Hence, appraisal errors are not due solely to property-specific heterogeneity.appraisal; commercial real estate; commingled real estate fund; NCREIF; real estate

Paper Session I-A - Space Strategy and the New World Order

Military applications of space were conceived well before the first orbiting satellites. For over a decade after World War II, the U. S. military studied possible uses of space and developed technologies essential for spaceflight. However, it took the shock of Sputnik in October 1957 for America to begin its military space program in earnest. Since that time, national imperatives and technology advances have driven our military space program, including surveillance and assessment of the Soviet military threat, and collection of data to monitor treaties. As advances were made in space technologies, applications, such as communications and meteorology, proved to be of significant value to military operations. Leaders within the defense community have long recognized our growing dependence on space. Today, we depend on space for indications and warning of hostile acts, command and control of nuclear and conventional forces, environmental information for planning air, land and sea campaigns and operations, and precise targeting and navigation data

Why They Fight: Combat Motivation in the Iraq War

With the recent lightning swift combat successes of Operation IRAQI FREEDOM, there may be a tendency to view with awe the lethality of U.S. technology and training. The researchers, however, argue that the true strength of America\u27s military might lies not in its hardware or high-tech equipment, but in its soldiers. Dr. Leonard Wong and his colleagues traveled to Iraq to see what motivated soldiers to continue in battle, to face extreme danger, and to risk their lives in accomplishing the mission. As a means of comparison, they began by interviewing Iraqi Regular Army prisoners of war to examine their combat motivation and unit dynamics. The researchers then interviewed U.S. combat troops fresh from the fields of battle to examine their views. What they found was that today\u27s U.S. soldiers, much like soldiers of the past, fight for each other. Unit cohesion is alive and well in today\u27s Army. Yet, Dr. Wong and his fellow researchers also found that soldiers cited ideological reasons such as liberation, freedom, and democracy as important factors in combat motivation. Today\u27s soldiers trust each other, they trust their leaders, they trust the Army, and they also understand the moral dimensions of war. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the all-volunteer Army. This monograph is a celebration of the success of that radical idea and the transformation of the U.S. Army from a demoralized draft army, to a struggling all-volunteer force, to a truly professional Army.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1787/thumbnail.jp

Surface melting of the vortex lattice

We discuss the effect of an (ab)-surface on the melting transition of the pancake-vortex lattice in a layered superconductor within a density functional theory approach. Both discontinuous and continuous surface melting are predicted for this system, although the latter scenario occupies the major part of the low-field phase diagram. The formation of a quasi-liquid layer below the bulk melting temperature inhibits the appearance of a superheated solid phase, yielding an asymmetric hysteretic behavior which has been seen in experiments.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Combat and Warfare in the Early Paleolithic and Medically Unexplained Musculo-Facial Pain in the 21st Century War Veterns and Active-Duty Military Personnel

In a series of recent articles, we suggest that family dentists, military dentists and psychiatrists with expertise in posttraumatic stress disorder (especially in the Veterans Health Administration) are likely to see an increased number of patients with symptomatic jaw-clenching and early stages of tooth- grinding (Bracha et al., 2005). Returning warfighters and other returnees from military deployment may be especially at risk for high rates of clenching- induced masticatory muscle disorders at early stages of incisor grinding. The literature we have recently reviewed strongly supports the conclusion that clenching and grinding may primarily be a manifestation of experiencing extreme fear or severe chronic distress (respectively). We have recently reviewed the clinical and paleoanthropological literature and have noted that ancestral warfare and ancestral combat, in the early Paleolithic Environment of Evolutionary Adaptedness (EEA) may be a neglected factor explaining the conservation of the archaic trait of bite-muscle strengthening. We have hypothesized that among ancestral warriors, jaw clenching may have rapidly strengthened the two primary muscles involved in biting, the masseter muscles and the much larger temporalis muscles. The strengthening of these muscles may have served the purpose of enabling a stronger, deeper, and therefore more lethal, defensive bite for early Paleolithic humans. The neuroevolutionary perspective presented here may be novel to many dentists. However, it may be useful in patient education and in preventing progression from jaw-clenching to chronic facial pain

Surface Melting of the Vortex Lattice in Layered Superconductors: Density Functional Theory

We study the effects of an $ab$-surface on the vortex-solid to vortex-liquid transition in layered superconductors in the limit of vanishing inter-layer Josephson coupling. We derive the interaction between pancake vortices in a semi-infinite sample and adapt the density functional theory of freezing to this system. We obtain an effective one-component order-parameter theory which can be used to describe the effects of the surface on vortex-lattice melting. Due to the absence of protecting layers in the neighbourhood of the surface, the vortex lattice formed near the surface is more susceptible to thermal fluctuations. Depending on the value of the magnetic field, we predict either a continuous or a discontinuous surface melting transition. For intermediate values of the magnetic field, the surface melts continuously, assisting the formation of the liquid phase and suppressing hysteresis above the melting transition, a prediction consistent with experimental results. For very low and very high magnetic fields, the surface melts discontinuously. The two different surface melting scenarios are separated by two surface multicritical points, which we locate on the melting line.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figure

Development of interconnected silicon micro-evaporators for the on-detector electronics cooling of the future ITS detector in the ALICE experiment at LHC

This paper was presented at the 4th Micro and Nano Flows Conference (MNF2014), which was held at University College, London, UK. The conference was organised by Brunel University and supported by the Italian Union of Thermofluiddynamics, IPEM, the Process Intensification Network, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, the Heat Transfer Society, HEXAG - the Heat Exchange Action Group, and the Energy Institute, ASME Press, LCN London Centre for Nanotechnology, UCL University College London, UCL Engineering, the International NanoScience Community, www.nanopaprika.eu.The design of the future High Energy Physics (HEP) particle detectors for the upgrade of the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) experiments at CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research) is pushing technological frontiers to the limit trying to reach unprecedented accuracy in particles identification and particle production dynamics in ultra-relativistic hadron collisions. The thermal management of the on-detector electronics and the development of low mass integrated cooling systems have become a crucial task in the design of silicon tracking detectors for HEP applications. In this paper, we present a novel concept of low mass interconnected silicon microchannel devices for the future Inner Tracking System of the ALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment) detector at LHC. This innovative design achieves the requirements of the detector while minimizing the total material budget