Are analysts' loss functions asymmetric?

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts? earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for forecast bias is that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. We test this alternative explanation. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on forecast error skewness. Our results confirm that the ex ante forecast error variance is a significant determinant of forecast error and that, after controlling for variance, the sign of the coefficient on forecast error skewness is opposite to that found in prior research. Our results are consistent with financial analysts having asymmetric loss functions. Further analysis reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across style portfolios formed on book-to-price and market capitalization. These firm characteristics capture systematic variation in forecast error variance and skewness. Within style portfolios, forecast error variance continues to play a dominant role in explaining forecast error.

Are analysts? loss functions asymmetric?

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts? earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for forecast bias is that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. We test this alternative explanation. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on forecast error skewness. Our results confirm that the ex ante forecast error variance is a significant determinant of forecast error and that, after controlling for variance, the sign of the coefficient on forecast error skewness is opposite to that found in prior research. Our results are consistent with financial analysts having asymmetric loss functions. Further analysis reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across style portfolios formed on book-to-price and market capitalization. These firm characteristics capture systematic variation in forecast error variance and skewness. Within style portfolios, forecast error variance continues to play a dominant role in explaining forecast error.

An examination of the precipitation delivery mechanisms for Dolleman Island, eastern Antarctic Peninsula

Copyright @ 2004 Wiley-BlackwellThe variability of size and source of significant precipitation events were studied at an Antarctic ice core drilling site: Dolleman Island (DI), located on the eastern coast of the Antarctic Peninsula. Significant precipitation events that occur at DI were temporally located in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data set, ERA-40. The annual and summer precipitation totals from ERA-40 at DI both show significant increases over the reanalysis period. Three-dimensional backwards air parcel trajectories were then run for 5 d using the ECMWF ERA-15 wind fields. Cluster analyses were performed on two sets of these backwards trajectories: all days in the range 1979–1992 (the climatological time-scale) and a subset of days when a significant precipitation event occurred. The principal air mass sources and delivery mechanisms were found to be the Weddell Sea via lee cyclogenesis, the South Atlantic when there was a weak circumpolar trough (CPT) and the South Pacific when the CPT was deep. The occurrence of precipitation bearing air masses arriving via a strong CPT was found to have a significant correlation with the southern annular mode (SAM); however, the arrival of air masses from the same region over the climatological time-scale showed no such correlation. Despite the dominance in both groups of back trajectories of the westerly circulation around Antarctica, some other key patterns were identified. Most notably there was a higher frequency of lee cyclogenesis events in the significant precipitation trajectories compared to the climatological time-scale. There was also a tendency for precipitation trajectories to come from more northerly latitudes, mostly from 50–70°S. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was found to have a strong influence on the mechanism by which the precipitation was delivered; the frequency of occurrence of precipitation from the east (west) of DI increased during El Niño (La Niña) events

Planck Observations of M33

We have performed a comprehensive investigation of the global integrated flux density of M33 from radio to ultraviolet wavelengths, finding that the data between $\sim$100 GHz and 3 THz are accurately described by a single modified blackbody curve with a dust temperature of $T_\mathrm{dust}$ = 21.67$\pm$0.30 K and an effective dust emissivity index of $\beta_\mathrm{eff}$ = 1.35$\pm$0.10, with no indication of an excess of emission at millimeter/sub-millimeter wavelengths. However, sub-dividing M33 into three radial annuli, we found that the global emission curve is highly degenerate with the constituent curves representing the sub-regions of M33. We also found gradients in $T_\mathrm{dust}$ and $\beta_\mathrm{eff}$ across the disk of M33, with both quantities decreasing with increasing radius. Comparing the M33 dust emissivity with that of other Local Group members, we find that M33 resembles the Magellanic Clouds rather than the larger galaxies, i.e., the Milky Way and M31. In the Local Group sample, we find a clear correlation between global dust emissivity and metallicity, with dust emissivity increasing with metallicity. A major aspect of this analysis is the investigation into the impact of fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) on the integrated flux density spectrum of M33. We found that failing to account for these CMB fluctuations would result in a significant over-estimate of $T_\mathrm{dust}$ by $\sim$5 K and an under-estimate of $\beta_\mathrm{eff}$ by $\sim$0.4.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Organic Extracellular Matrix Components at the Bone Cell/Substratum Interface

We have recently shown that differentiating bone cells are capable of elaborating, in vitro, a calcified matrix at the interface with several non-biological substrata which is similar to cement lines found in remodelling bone tissue. From previous morphological observations, this matrix appeared free of assembled collagen fibres which indicated that osteogenic cells produce an initial mineralized matrix before overt collagen fibre production. In the work reported herein, we used six antibodies to extracellular matrix components and two conjugates of secondary antibody, fluorescein and colloidal gold, to initiate a preliminary characterization of the organic components at the bone cell substratum interface at early periods of culture. The labels were visualized by transmitted fluorescence light and immuno-gold scanning electron microscopy, respectively. Both secondary and backscattered modes were employed in the latter. The results showed that while chondroitin sulphate was ubiquitous in this culture system, osteopontin labeled discretely at the ends of cell pseudopodia, initially, following which the substratum surface was strongly labeled. The distribution of fibronectin was significantly different to that of osteopontin and indicated that this protein was primarily involved in cell/cell rather than cell/substratum adhesion. Although Type I collagen was not present in the extracellular matrix at early periods of culture, it was evident intracellularly at 3 days and extracellularly after the formation of the initial cement-like matrix. However, Type III collagen displayed the inverse sequence. In less mature cultures, it exhibited a ubiquitous distribution, while it was un-detectable at later stages of culture. Finally, osteocalcin was the only antibody employed which showed no labeling at early culture periods while at later stages, both the cellular compartment and the previously formed interfacial matrix labeled positively

The growth of structure in the Szekeres inhomogeneous cosmological models and the matter-dominated era

This study belongs to a series devoted to using Szekeres inhomogeneous models to develop a theoretical framework where observations can be investigated with a wider range of possible interpretations. We look here into the growth of large-scale structure in the models. The Szekeres models are exact solutions to Einstein's equations that were originally derived with no symmetries. We use a formulation of the models that is due to Goode and Wainwright, who considered the models as exact perturbations of an FLRW background. Using the Raychaudhuri equation, we write for the two classes of the models, exact growth equations in terms of the under/overdensity and measurable cosmological parameters. The new equations in the overdensity split into two informative parts. The first part, while exact, is identical to the growth equation in the usual linearly perturbed FLRW models, while the second part constitutes exact non-linear perturbations. We integrate numerically the full exact growth rate equations for the flat and curved cases. We find that for the matter-dominated era, the Szekeres growth rate is up to a factor of three to five stronger than the usual linearly perturbed FLRW cases, reflecting the effect of exact Szekeres non-linear perturbations. The growth is also stronger than that of the non-linear spherical collapse model, and the difference between the two increases with time. This highlights the distinction when we use general inhomogeneous models where shear and a tidal gravitational field are present and contribute to the gravitational clustering. Additionally, it is worth observing that the enhancement of the growth found in the Szekeres models during the matter-dominated era could suggest a substitute to the argument that dark matter is needed when using FLRW models to explain the enhanced growth and resulting large-scale structures that we observe today (abridged)Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, matches PRD accepted versio

Correlation properties of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect and implications for Dark Energy

In the context of a cosmological study of the bulk flows in the Universe, we present a detailed study of the statistical properties of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect. We first compute analytically the correlation function and the power spectrum of the projected peculiar velocities of galaxy clusters. By taking into account the spatial clustering properties of these sources, we perform a line-of-sight computation of the {\em all-sky} kSZ power spectrum and find that at large angular scales ($l<10$), the local bulk flow should leave a visible signature above the Poisson-like fluctuations dominant at smaller scales, while the coupling of density and velocity fluctuations should give much smaller contribution. We conduct an analysis of the prospects of future high resolution CMB experiments (such as ACT and SPT) to detect the kSZ signal and to extract cosmological information and dark energy constraints from it. We present two complementary methods, one suitable for ``deep and narrow'' surveys such as ACT and one suitable for ``wide and shallow'' surveys such as SPT. Both methods can constraint the equation of state of dark energy $w$ to about 5-10% when applied to forthcoming and future surveys, and probe $w$ in complementary redshift ranges, which could shed some light on its time evolution. These determinations of $w$ do not rely on the knowledge of cluster masses, although they make minimal assumptions on cluster physics.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, submitted to ApJ, comments welcome. See parallel work of S.DeDeo, D.N.Spergel and H.Trak (ApJ, to be submitted

The clinical utility of TRACP-5b to monitor anti-resorptive treatments of osteoporosis

Summary TRACP-5b can be used to monitor the response of treatments in osteoporosis. We investigated the effect of feeding on levels of TRACP-5b and how these markers perform in a clinical setting. After feeding, there was no effect on levels TRACP-5b. It has similar diagnostic accuracy to CTX and PINP. Introduction Bone turnover markers (BTMs) can be used to monitor response to osteoporosis treatment. However, some are affected by food intake and are not suitable to measure in a clinical setting. An assay is available which is capable of detecting the active isoform 5b of tartrate resistance acid phosphatase (TRACP-5b) and it may have minimal biological variation. Our aims were to investigate the effect of feeding on levels of TRACP-5b and compare this to CTX and PINP and then to compare the diagnostic accuracy of TRACP-5b to CTX and PINP in patients with osteoporosis given commonly used treatments. Methods Eighteen patients were recruited to investigate the effect of feeding on BTMs. Ninety-seven patients (74 females and 23 males) receiving 5 mg annual intra-venous zoledronate (mean age 70) and 97 patients receiving no treatment were recruited as group-matched controls. Sixteen patients receiving 60 mg subcutaneous denosumab every 6 months, (mean age 76) and 16 matched controls were recruited. Seventy-six patients were receiving oral bisphosphonates: 70 mg alendronate weekly, 35 mg risedronate and 150 mg monthly ibandronate (4%). Thirty of these patients had BMD measured at the total hip and lumbar spine. An estimate of compliance was not determined. Eighty patients receiving no treatment were recruited as group-matched controls. TRACP-5b (ELISA, Nittobo) and CTX and PINP were measured in serum in the non-fasting state between 0800 and 1700. Results After feeding, there was no effect on levels TRACP-5b and significant reductions in CTX and PINP, 29% and 10%, respectively (p < 0.001). In the zoledronate and denosumab groups, there were no differences in the areas under the curves (AUCs) between TRACP-5b, PINP and CTX. In the oral bisphosphonates group, the AUCs between TRACP-5b and PINP and TRACP-5b and CTX were significantly different, p < 0.01 and p = 0.001, respectively. TRACP-5b was negatively correlated with BMD. Conclusion TRACP-5b is not affected by food intake, unlike CTX and PINP. All three BTMs correlate with change in BMD at the lumbar spine and total hip. TRACP-5b has similar diagnostic accuracy to CTX and PINP with commonly used treatments for osteoporosis with the exception of oral bisphosphonate therapy