How to Measure Group Selection in Real-world Populations

Multilevel selection and the evolution of cooperation are fundamental to the formation of higher-level organisation and the evolution of biocomplexity, but such notions are controversial and poorly understood in natural populations. The theoretic principles of group selection are well developed in idealised models where a population is neatly divided into multiple semi-isolated sub-populations. But since such models can be explained by individual selection given the localised frequency-dependent effects involved, some argue that the group selection concepts offered are, even in the idealised case, redundant and that in natural conditions where groups are not well-defined that a group selection framework is entirely inapplicable. This does not necessarily mean, however, that a natural population is not subject to some interesting localised frequency-dependent effects – but how could we formally quantify this under realistic conditions? Here we focus on the presence of a Simpson’s Paradox where, although the local proportion of cooperators decreases at all locations, the global proportion of cooperators increases. We illustrate this principle in a simple individual-based model of bacterial biofilm growth and discuss various complicating factors in moving from theory to practice of measuring group selection

The Efficacy of Group Selection is Increased by Coexistence Dynamics within Groups

Selection on the level of loosely associated groups has been suggested as a route towards the evolution of cooperation between individuals and the subsequent formation of higher-level biological entities. Such group selection explanations remain problematic, however, due to the narrow range of parameters under which they can overturn within-group selection that favours selfish behaviour. In principle, individual selection could act on such parameters so as to strengthen the force of between-group selection and hence increase cooperation and individual fitness, as illustrated in our previous work. However, such a process cannot operate in parameter regions where group selection effects are totally absent, since there would be no selective gradient to follow. One key parameter, which when increased often rapidly causes group selection effects to tend to zero, is initial group size, for when groups are formed randomly then even moderately sized groups lack significant variance in their composition. However, the consequent restriction of any group selection effect to small sized groups is derived from models that assume selfish types will competitively exclude their more cooperative counterparts at within-group equilibrium. In such cases, diversity in the migrant pool can tend to zero and accordingly variance in group composition cannot be generated. In contrast, we show that if within-group dynamics lead to a stable coexistence of selfish and cooperative types, then the range of group sizes showing some effect of group selection is much larger

The impact of stochastic physics on climate sensitivity in EC-Earth

Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of stochastic physics has also been found to be beneficial for the model's long term climate. In this paper, we demonstrate for the first time that the inclusion of a stochastic physics scheme can notably affect a model's projection of global warming, as well as its historical climatological global temperature. Specifically, we find that when including the 'stochastically perturbed parametrisation tendencies' scheme (SPPT) in the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1, the predicted level of global warming between 1850 and 2100 is reduced by 10% under an RCP8.5 forcing scenario. We link this reduction in climate sensitivity to a change in the cloud feedbacks with SPPT. In particular, the scheme appears to reduce the positive low cloud cover feedback, and increase the negative cloud optical feedback. A key role is played by a robust, rapid increase in cloud liquid water with SPPT, which we speculate is due to the scheme's non-linear interaction with condensation.Comment: Under review in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere

Dynamical decompactification from brane gases in eleven-dimensional supergravity

Brane gas cosmology provides a dynamical decompactification mechanism that could account for the number of spacetime dimensions we observe today. In this work we discuss this scenario taking into account the full bosonic sector of eleven-dimensional supergravity. We find new cosmological solutions that can dynamically explain the existence of three large spatial dimensions characterised by an universal asymptotic scaling behaviour and a large number of initially unwrapped dimensions. This type of solutions enlarge the possible initial conditions of the Universe in the Hagedorn phase and consequently can potentially increase the probability of dynamical decompactification from anisotropically wrapped backgrounds.Comment: 8 figures, JHEP3 styl

Defining the gap between research and practice in public relations programme evaluation - towards a new research agenda

The current situation in public relations programme evaluation is neatly summarized by McCoy who commented that 'probably the most common buzzwords in public relations in the last ten years have been evaluation and accountability' (McCoy 2005, 3). This paper examines the academic and practitioner-based literature and research on programme evaluation and it detects different priorities and approaches that may partly explain why the debate on acceptable and agreed evaluation methods continues. It analyses those differences and proposes a research agenda to bridge the gap and move the debate forward

Vibrating Winding Branes, Wrapping Democracy and Stabilization of Extra Dimensions in Dilaton Gravity

We show that, in the context of dilaton gravity, a recently proposed democratic principle for intersection possibilities of branes winding around extra dimensions yield stabilization, even with the inclusion of momentum modes of the wrapped branes on top of the winding modes. The constraints for stabilization massaged by string theory inputs forces the number of observed dimensions to be three. We also discuss consequences of adding ordinary matter living in the observed dimensions.Comment: Added a section discussing the linear and non-linear stability of the equilibrium point of the scale factors of the extra dimensions. Corrected a typo in the original field equations and other typos. Added and changed references. Final version appeared in JHE

Advanced Computer Dormant Reliability Study Final Report

Reliability of integrated circuits and discrete components of electronics for computer and dormant module for Minuteman

String Gas Cosmology

We present a critical review and summary of String Gas Cosmology. We include a pedagogical derivation of the effective action starting from string theory, emphasizing the necessary approximations that must be invoked. Working in the effective theory, we demonstrate that at late-times it is not possible to stabilize the extra dimensions by a gas of massive string winding modes. We then consider additional string gases that contain so-called enhanced symmetry states. These string gases are very heavy initially, but drive the moduli to locations that minimize the energy and pressure of the gas. We consider both classical and quantum gas dynamics, where in the former the validity of the theory is questionable and some fine-tuning is required, but in the latter we find a consistent and promising stabilization mechanism that is valid at late-times. In addition, we find that string gases provide a framework to explore dark matter, presenting alternatives to $\Lambda$CDM as recently considered by Gubser and Peebles. We also discuss quantum trapping with string gases as a method for including dynamics on the string landscape.Comment: 55 pages, 1 figure, minor corrections, version to appear in Reviews of Modern Physic