128 research outputs found
On Universality in Human Correspondence Activity
Identifying and modeling patterns of human activity has important
ramifications in applications ranging from predicting disease spread to
optimizing resource allocation. Because of its relevance and availability,
written correspondence provides a powerful proxy for studying human activity.
One school of thought is that human correspondence is driven by responses to
received correspondence, a view that requires distinct response mechanism to
explain e-mail and letter correspondence observations. Here, we demonstrate
that, like e-mail correspondence, the letter correspondence patterns of 16
writers, performers, politicians, and scientists are well-described by the
circadian cycle, task repetition and changing communication needs. We confirm
the universality of these mechanisms by properly rescaling letter and e-mail
correspondence statistics to reveal their underlying similarity.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl
A Poissonian explanation for heavy-tails in e-mail communication
Patterns of deliberate human activity and behavior are of utmost importance
in areas as diverse as disease spread, resource allocation, and emergency
response. Because of its widespread availability and use, e-mail correspondence
provides an attractive proxy for studying human activity. Recently, it was
reported that the probability density for the inter-event time between
consecutively sent e-mails decays asymptotically as , with
. The slower than exponential decay of the inter-event time
distribution suggests that deliberate human activity is inherently
non-Poissonian. Here, we demonstrate that the approximate power-law scaling of
the inter-event time distribution is a consequence of circadian and weekly
cycles of human activity. We propose a cascading non-homogeneous Poisson
process which explicitly integrates these periodic patterns in activity with an
individual's tendency to continue participating in an activity. Using standard
statistical techniques, we show that our model is consistent with the empirical
data. Our findings may also provide insight into the origins of heavy-tailed
distributions in other complex systems.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure
Small World Network of Athletes: Graph Representation of the World Professional Tennis Player
Systemic importance of financial institutions: regulations, research, open issues, proposals
In the field of risk management, scholars began to bring together the quantitative methodologies with the banking management issues about 30 years ago, with a special focus on market, credit and operational risks. After the systemic effects of banks defaults during the recent financial crisis,
and despite a huge amount of literature in the last years concerning the systemic risk, no standard methodologies have been set up to now. Even the new Basel 3 regulation has adopted a heuristic indicator-based approach, quite far from an effective quantitative tool. In this paper, we refer to the different pieces of the puzzle: definition of systemic risk, a set of coherent and useful measures, the computability of these measures, the data set structure. In this challenging field, we aim to build a comprehensive picture of the state of the art, to illustrate the open issues, and to outline some paths for a more successful future research. This work appropriately integrates other useful surveys and it is directed to both academic researchers and practitioners
Beyond Gaussian Averages: Redirecting Management Research Toward Extreme Events and Power Laws
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