Constrained Optimization Approaches to Estimation of Structural Models

Estimating structural models is often viewed as computationally difficult, an impression partly due to a focus on the nested fixed-point (NFXP) approach. We propose a new constrained optimization approach for structural estimation. We show that our approach and the NFXP algorithm solve the same estimation problem, and yield the same estimates. Computationally, our approach can have speed advantages because we do not repeatedly solve the structural equation at each guess of structural parameters. Monte Carlo experiments on the canonical Zurcher bus-repair model demonstrate that the constrained optimization approach can be significantly faster

Fiscal Policy, Trigger Points and Interest Rates: Additional Evidence From the U.S.

We empirically investigate whether the relationship between interest rates and public deficits/debt may be nonlinear for the U.S. Using threshold estimation, we find evidence of level-dependent effects on interest rates, implying a significant effect of projected deficits and debt in the U.S. only if the deficit surpasses approximately 5% of GDP

Revisiting Strategic versus Non-Strategic Cooperation

We use a novel experimental design to disentangle strategically- and non-strategically-motivated cooperation. By using contingent responses in a repeated sequential prisoners’ dilemma with a known probabilistic end, we differentiate end-game behavior from continuation behavior within individuals while controlling for expectations. This design allows us to determine the extent to which strategically-cooperating individuals are responsible for the so-called endgame effect. Experiments with two different subject pools indicate that the most common motive for cooperation in repeated games is strategic and that the extent to which endgame effects are driven by strategically-cooperating individuals depends on the profitability of cooperation.

Nonrenewable Resources, Strategic Behavior and the Hotelling Rule: An Experiment

This study uses the methods of experimental economics to investigate possible causes for the failure of the Hotelling rule for nonrenewable resources. We argue that as long as resource stocks are large enough, producers may choose to (partially) ignore the dynamic component of their production decision, shifting production to the present and focusing more on strategic behavior. We experimentally vary stock size in a nonrenewable resource duopoly setting and find that producers with large stocks indeed pay significantly less attention to variables related to dynamic optimization,leading to a failure of the Hotelling rule

Output Gap Similarities in Europe: Detecting Country Groups

The literature on business cycle synchronization in Europe frequently presumes an alleged 'core-periphery' pattern without providing empirical verification of the underlying cyclical (dis)similarities or the supposed but unobservable 'European business cycle(s)'. To provide a data-based country group analysis, we apply a fuzzy clustering approach to quarterly output gap series of 27 European countries over the period 1996-2015. Our results confirm the existence of a persistent core cluster as opposed to clusters on the Eastern and Southern European peripheries, highlighting the inadequate composition of the euro area (EA). Moreover, we find that Germany's business cycle is not a suitable substitute for the core. By analyzing the relation between the identified 'European core business cycle' and the peripheral cycles over time, we show diverging patterns for the southern periphery after the financial crisis, casting doubt on the endogeneity properties of the EA

Privacy, Trust and Social Network Formation

We study in the laboratory the impact of private information revelation on the selection of partners when forming individual networks. Our experiment combines a "network game" and a "public-good game". In the network game, individuals decide with whom to form a link with, while in the public-good game they decide whether or not to contribute. The variations in our treatments allow us to identify the effect of revealing one´s name on the probability of link formation. Our main result suggests that privacy mechanisms affect partner selection and the consequent structure of the network: when individuals reveal their real name, their individual networks are smaller but their profits are higher. This indicates that the privacy costs of revealing personal information are compensated by more productive links

Convergence Without Hard Criteria: Does EU Soft Law Affect Domestic Unemployment Protection Schemes?

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