Pushing the limits: K2 observations of the trans-Neptunian objects 2002 GV31 and (278361) 2007 JJ43

We present the first photometric observations of trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) taken with the Kepler space telescope, obtained in the course of the K2 ecliptic survey. Two faint objects have been monitored in specifically designed pixel masks that were centered on the stationary points of the objects, when their daily motion was the slowest. In the design of the experiment, only the apparent path of these objects were retrieved from the detectors, i.e. the costs in terms of Kepler pixels were minimized. Because of the faintness of the targets we employ specific reduction techniques and co-added images. We measure rotational periods and amplitudes in the unfiltered Kepler band as follows: for (278361) 2007 JJ43 and 2002 GV31 we get P_rot=12.097 h and P_rot=29.2 h while 0.10 and 0.35 mag for the total amplitudes, respectively. Future space missions, like TESS and PLATO are not well suited to this kind of observations. Therefore, we encourage to include the brightest TNOs around their stationary points in each observing campaign to exploit this unique capability of the K2 Mission -- and therefore to provide unbiased rotational, shape and albedo characteristics of many objects.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters, 5.2 pages in emulateapj style, misspelled 2007 JJ43 designation correcte

Mapping a star with transits: orbit precession effects in the Kepler-13 system

Kepler-13b (KOI-13.01) is a most intriguing exoplanet system due to the rapid precession rate, exhibiting several exotic phenomena. We analyzed $Kepler$ Short Cadence data up to Quarter 14, with a total time-span of 928 days, to reveal changes in transit duration, depth, asymmetry, and identify the possible signals of stellar rotation and low-level activity. We investigated long-term variations of transit light curves, testing for duration, peak depth and asymmetry. We also performed cluster analysis on $Kepler$ quarters. We computed the autocorrelation function of the out-of-transit light variations. Transit duration, peak depth, and asymmetry evolve slowly, due to the slowly drifting transit path through the stellar disk. The detected transit shapes will map the stellar surface on the time scale of decades. We found a very significant clustering pattern with 3-orbit period. Its source is very probably the rotating stellar surface, in the 5:3 spin-orbit resonance reported in a previous study. The autocorrelation function of the out-of-transit light variations, filtered to 25.4 hours and harmonics, shows slow variations and a peak around 300--360 day period, which could be related to the activity cycle of the host star.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, accepted in MNRA

Phase transition and selection in a four-species cyclic Lotka-Volterra model

We study a four species ecological system with cyclic dominance whose individuals are distributed on a square lattice. Randomly chosen individuals migrate to one of the neighboring sites if it is empty or invade this site if occupied by their prey. The cyclic dominance maintains the coexistence of all the four species if the concentration of vacant sites is lower than a threshold value. Above the treshold, a symmetry breaking ordering occurs via growing domains containing only two neutral species inside. These two neutral species can protect each other from the external invaders (predators) and extend their common territory. According to our Monte Carlo simulations the observed phase transition is equivalent to those found in spreading models with two equivalent absorbing states although the present model has continuous sets of absorbing states with different portions of the two neutral species. The selection mechanism yielding symmetric phases is related to the domain growth process whith wide boundaries where the four species coexist.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Main-Belt Asteroids in the K2 Engineering Field of View

Unlike NASA's original Kepler Discovery Mission, the renewed K2 Mission will stare at the plane of the Ecliptic, observing each field for approximately 75 days. This will bring new opportunities and challenges, in particular the presence of a large number of main-belt asteroids that will contaminate the photometry. The large pixel size makes K2 data susceptible to the effect of apparent minor planet encounters. Here we investigate the effects of asteroid encounters on photometric precision using a sub-sample of the K2 Engineering data taken in February, 2014. We show examples of asteroid contamination to facilitate their recognition and distinguish these events from other error sources. We conclude that main-belt asteroids will have considerable effects on K2 photometry of a large number of photometric targets during the Mission, that will have to be taken into account. These results will be readily applicable for future space photometric missions applying large-format CCDs, such as TESS and PLATO.Comment: accepted for publication in AJ, 6 page

CHEOPS performance for exomoons: The detectability of exomoons by using optimal decision algorithm

Many attempts have already been made for detecting exomoons around transiting exoplanets but the first confirmed discovery is still pending. The experience that have been gathered so far allow us to better optimize future space telescopes for this challenge, already during the development phase. In this paper we focus on the forthcoming CHaraterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS),describing an optimized decision algorithm with step-by-step evaluation, and calculating the number of required transits for an exomoon detection for various planet-moon configurations that can be observable by CHEOPS. We explore the most efficient way for such an observation which minimizes the cost in observing time. Our study is based on PTV observations (photocentric transit timing variation, Szab\'o et al. 2006) in simulated CHEOPS data, but the recipe does not depend on the actual detection method, and it can be substituted with e.g. the photodynamical method for later applications. Using the current state-of-the-art level simulation of CHEOPS data we analyzed transit observation sets for different star-planet-moon configurations and performed a bootstrap analysis to determine their detection statistics. We have found that the detection limit is around an Earth-sized moon. In the case of favorable spatial configurations, systems with at least such a large moon and with at least Neptune-sized planet, 80\% detection chance requires at least 5-6 transit observations on average. There is also non-zero chance in the case of smaller moons, but the detection statistics deteriorates rapidly, while the necessary transit measurements increase fast. (abridged)Comment: 32 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in PAS

Frequentist coverage of adaptive nonparametric Bayesian credible sets

We investigate the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets in a nonparametric setting. We consider a scale of priors of varying regularity and choose the regularity by an empirical Bayes method. Next we consider a central set of prescribed posterior probability in the posterior distribution of the chosen regularity. We show that such an adaptive Bayes credible set gives correct uncertainty quantification of "polished tail" parameters, in the sense of high probability of coverage of such parameters. On the negative side, we show by theory and example that adaptation of the prior necessarily leads to gross and haphazard uncertainty quantification for some true parameters that are still within the hyperrectangle regularity scale.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1270 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Causation, Measurement Relevance and No-conspiracy in EPR

In this paper I assess the adequacy of no-conspiracy conditions employed in the usual derivations of the Bell inequality in the context of EPR correlations. First, I look at the EPR correlations from a purely phenomenological point of view and claim that common cause explanations of these cannot be ruled out. I argue that an appropriate common cause explanation requires that no-conspiracy conditions are re-interpreted as mere common cause-measurement independence conditions. In the right circumstances then, violations of measurement independence need not entail any kind of conspiracy (nor backwards in time causation). To the contrary, if measurement operations in the EPR context are taken to be causally relevant in a specific way to the experiment outcomes, their explicit causal role provides the grounds for a common cause explanation of the corresponding correlations.Comment: 20 pages, 1 figur