From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination

Myocardial changes in incident haemodialysis patients over 6-months:an observational cardiac magnetic resonance imaging study

Patients commencing on haemodialysis (HD) have an increased risk of cardiovascular events in the first year after starting HD compared to those patients established on HD longer. Left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and abnormal myocardial strain predict mortality. There may be changes in the myocardium of incident HD patients over a 6-month period of HD which may explain changes in cardiovascular risk. We used CMR to consider changes in LV mass, myocardial strain and T1 mapping. We examined changes in pre-dialysis highly sensitive troponin T. 33 patients undergoing HD for <12 months were recruited. Participants underwent CMR at baseline and after 6-months of standard care. 6-months of HD was associated with reduction in LV mass index (Baseline: 78.8 g/m2 follow up: 69.9 g/m2, p = <0.001). LV global longitudinal strain also improved (Baseline: −17.9%, follow up: −21.6%, p = <0.001). Change in T1 time was not significant (Baseline septal T1 1277.4 ms, follow up 1271.5 p = 0.504). Highly sensitive troponin T was lower at follow up (Baseline 38.8 pg/L, follow up 30.8 pg/L p = 0.02). In incident HD patients, 6-months of HD was associated with improvements in LV mass, strain and troponin. These findings may reflect improvement in known cardiac tissue abnormalities found in patients over the first year of HD

Internal migration and inclusive development: Insights from the field

Migration is a universal phenomenon. From time immemorial women and men have travelled in search of better living. There are two separate streams of migration. The first one is at the upper end of human capital hierarchy, to fill in existing surplus demand in the labour market of destination regions. Consequently, this process is highly selective in nature – in terms of skill & training, age, and gender. The second stream emerges due to ‘Push factors’ or distress conditions in the source regions (relative to the destination) – economic hardships in the form of low wages, high unemployment, heavy population pressure, etc. in the native places, and the lure of better earning opportunities in the economically vibrant destination region. This process is a coping mechanism of poor families and helps them come out of poverty. Thus migration can be both discriminatory and egalitarian. Another issue is the emerging pattern of identity and conflict between natives and migrants in several parts of the country. Social inclusion of migrants is sometimes at jeopardy and goes against the ethos and economics of one nation-one labour market principle. This issue needs to be examined also. Using field data, this paper seeks to understand the following issues:(a) Who migrates – what are the social, economic and institutional factors that determine migration decisions? (b) Are there any disparities between migrants/natives and various socio-religious groups regarding – Educational Attainment, Availability of employment, Nature of employment (casual/regular), Occupational distribution, and Earnings?; (c) What are the migration patterns of lagging socio-religious groups? Whether migration does form a route out of poverty for them, and whether specific policies for these groups exist or should be recommended; (d) Understand whether the process of migration is leading to better human capital standards for the subsequent generation or stifling it; and, (e) Examine the perception of natives in receiving regions about migrant workers and how migrants assimilate. The paper uses primary data from 3 districts of Bengal to explore the issues highlighted. It would also explore the impact on the migrants, the receiving regions and the sending regions through case studies to help us in understanding the issue of social inclusion of migrants. Several processes/local systems of migration have also been examined to highlight the vulnerability of the migrants. Inferences from the paper would help in devising a broadbased and inclusive migration policy

Identification of myocardial diffuse fibrosis by 11 heartbeat MOLLI T1 mapping: averaging to improve precision and correlation with collagen volume fraction

Objectives: Our objectives involved identifying whether repeated averaging in basal and mid left ventricular myocardial levels improves precision and correlation with collagen volume fraction for 11 heartbeat MOLLI T1 mapping versus assessment at a single ventricular level. Materials and methods: For assessment of T1 mapping precision, a cohort of 15 healthy volunteers underwent two CMR scans on separate days using an 11 heartbeat MOLLI with a 5(3)3 beat scheme to measure native T1 and a 4(1)3(1)2 beat post-contrast scheme to measure post-contrast T1, allowing calculation of partition coefficient and ECV. To assess correlation of T1 mapping with collagen volume fraction, a separate cohort of ten aortic stenosis patients scheduled to undergo surgery underwent one CMR scan with this 11 heartbeat MOLLI scheme, followed by intraoperative tru-cut myocardial biopsy. Six models of myocardial diffuse fibrosis assessment were established with incremental inclusion of imaging by averaging of the basal and mid-myocardial left ventricular levels, and each model was assessed for precision and correlation with collagen volume fraction. Results: A model using 11 heart beat MOLLI imaging of two basal and two mid ventricular level averaged T1 maps provided improved precision (Intraclass correlation 0.93 vs 0.84) and correlation with histology (R2 = 0.83 vs 0.36) for diffuse fibrosis compared to a single mid-ventricular level alone. ECV was more precise and correlated better than native T1 mapping. Conclusion: T1 mapping sequences with repeated averaging could be considered for applications of 11 heartbeat MOLLI, especially when small changes in native T1/ECV might affect clinical management

Defining myocardial tissue abnormalities in end-stage renal failure with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging using native T1 mapping

Noninvasive quantification of myocardial fibrosis in end-stage renal disease is challenging. Gadolinium contrast agents previously used for cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are contraindicated because of an association with nephrogenic systemic fibrosis. In other populations, increased myocardial native T1 times on cardiac MRI have been shown to be a surrogate marker of myocardial fibrosis. We applied this method to 33 incident hemodialysis patients and 28 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers who underwent MRI at 3.0T. Native T1 relaxation times and feature tracking–derived global longitudinal strain as potential markers of fibrosis were compared and associated with cardiac biomarkers. Left ventricular mass indices were higher in the hemodialysis than the control group. Global, Septal and midseptal T1 times were all significantly higher in the hemodialysis group (global T1 hemodialysis 1171 ± 27 ms vs. 1154 ± 32 ms; septal T1 hemodialysis 1184 ± 29 ms vs. 1163 ± 30 ms; and midseptal T1 hemodialysis 1184 ± 34 ms vs. 1161 ± 29 ms). In the hemodialysis group, T1 times correlated with left ventricular mass indices. Septal T1 times correlated with troponin and electrocardiogram-corrected QT interval. The peak global longitudinal strain was significantly reduced in the hemodialysis group (hemodialysis -17.7±5.3% vs. -21.8±6.2%). For hemodialysis patients, the peak global longitudinal strain significantly correlated with left ventricular mass indices (R = 0.426), and a trend was seen for correlation with galectin-3, a biomarker of cardiac fibrosis. Thus, cardiac tissue properties of hemodialysis patients consistent with myocardial fibrosis can be determined noninvasively and associated with multiple structural and functional abnormalities

A Tale of Many Cities: Universal Patterns in Human Urban Mobility

The advent of geographic online social networks such as Foursquare, where users voluntarily signal their current location, opens the door to powerful studies on human movement. In particular the fine granularity of the location data, with GPS accuracy down to 10 meters, and the worldwide scale of Foursquare adoption are unprecedented. In this paper we study urban mobility patterns of people in several metropolitan cities around the globe by analyzing a large set of Foursquare users. Surprisingly, while there are variations in human movement in different cities, our analysis shows that those are predominantly due to different distributions of places across different urban environments. Moreover, a universal law for human mobility is identified, which isolates as a key component the rank-distance, factoring in the number of places between origin and destination, rather than pure physical distance, as considered in some previous works. Building on our findings, we also show how a rank-based movement model accurately captures real human movements in different cities

Spatio-temporal diffusion of residential land prices across Taipei regions

ABSTRACT: Past studies have shown that changes in the house price of a region may transmit to its neighbouring regions. The transmission mechanism may follow spatial and temporal diffusion processes. This paper investigates such regional housing market dynamics and interactions among local housing sub-markets in Taipei. The analysis is based on a panel data framework and spatial panel models using annual data on median residential land prices from 41 Taipei sub-markets over the period from 1992 to 2010. The empirical analysis suggests that spatial dependence plays a significant role in interactions among regional housing markets. The results are strongly robust across several model specifications and regions controlling for time fixed effects and space-time covariance. These findings have significant implications for urban spatial planning and efficient use of public resources in mega-urban areas. JEL CLASSIFICATIONS: C21; C23; R12; H5

Effect of cellular and extracellular pathology assessed by T1 mapping on regional contractile function in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Background Regional contractile dysfunction is a frequent finding in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We aimed to investigate the contribution of different tissue characteristics in HCM to regional contractile dysfunction. Methods We prospectively recruited 50 patients with HCM who underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) studies at 3.0 T including cine imaging, T1 mapping and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) imaging. For each segment of the American Heart Association model segment thickness, native T1, extracellular volume (ECV), presence of LGE and regional strain (by feature tracking and tissue tagging) were assessed. The relationship of segmental function, hypertrophy and tissue characteristics were determined using a mixed effects model, with random intercept for each patient. Results Individually segment thickness, native T1, ECV and the presence of LGE all had significant associations with regional strain. The first multivariable model (segment thickness, LGE and ECV) demonstrated that all strain parameters were associated with segment thickness (P < 0.001 for all) but not ECV. LGE (Beta 2.603, P = 0.024) had a significant association with circumferential strain measured by tissue tagging. In a second multivariable model (segment thickness, LGE and native T1) all strain parameters were associated with both segment thickness (P < 0.001 for all) and native T1 (P < 0.001 for all) but not LGE. Conclusion Impairment of contractile function in HCM is predominantly associated with the degree of hypertrophy and native T1 but not markers of extracellular fibrosis (ECV or LGE). These findings suggest that impairment of contractility in HCM is mediated by mechanisms other than extracellular expansion that include cellular changes in structure and function. The cellular mechanisms leading to increased native T1 and its prognostic significance remain to be established