On Operational Earthquake Forecast and Prediction Problems.

In his SSA presidential address (Jordan, 2014), and later in a more extended publication with coauthors (Jordan et al., 2014), Jordan presents a vision of forecast and prediction problems of earthquake system science. As experienced practitioners and in full appreciation of scientific studies on earthquake forecasting, we find it necessary to share a complementary viewpoint

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation.

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93–165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489–508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory

Erratum to: Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

Acknowledgments This paper is strongly relying upon the work of many colleagues and collaborators to whom we are greatly thankful, in particular: Carlo Doglioni, Gillian Foulger, Vahid Gholami, Hossein Hamzehloo, Volodya Kossobokov, Cristina La Mura, Anatoly Levshin, Andrea Magrin, Antonella Peresan, Federica Riguzzi, Franco Vaccari, Peter Varga, Tatiana Yanovskaya. Financial support from PRIN 2010-2011 and RITMARE projects, funded by Italian Ministry of University and Research, is gratefully acknowledged. In addition, Fig. 3 should be updated by new one as below

A web application prototype for the multiscale modelling of seismic input

A web application prototype is described, aimed at the generation of synthetic seismograms for user-defined earthquake models. The web application graphical user interface hides the complexity of the underlying computational engine, which is the outcome of the continuous evolution of sophisticated computer codes, some of which saw the light back in the middle '80s. With the web application, even the non-experts can produce ground shaking scenarios at the local or regional scale in very short times, depending on the complexity of the adopted source and medium models, without the need of a deep knowledge of the physics of the earthquake phenomenon. Actually, it may even allow neophytes to get some basic education in the field of seismology and seismic engineering, due to the simplified intuitive experimental approach to the matter. One of the most powerful features made available to the users is indeed the capability of executing quick parametric tests in near real-time, to explore the relations between each model's parameter and the resulting ground motion scenario. The synthetic seismograms generated through the web application can be used by civil engineers for the design of new seismo-resistant structures, or to analyse the performance of the existing ones under seismic load.Comment: 23 pages, 13 figure

The Global Diversity of Parasitic Isopods Associated with Crustacean Hosts (Isopoda: Bopyroidea and Cryptoniscoidea)

Parasitic isopods of Bopyroidea and Cryptoniscoidea (commonly referred to as epicarideans) are unique in using crustaceans as both intermediate and definitive hosts. In total, 795 epicarideans are known, representing ∼7.7% of described isopods. The rate of description of parasitic species has not matched that of free-living isopods and this disparity will likely continue due to the more cryptic nature of these parasites. Distribution patterns of epicarideans are influenced by a combination of their definitive (both benthic and pelagic species) and intermediate (pelagic copepod) host distributions, although host specificity is poorly known for most species. Among epicarideans, nearly all species in Bopyroidea are ectoparasitic on decapod hosts. Bopyrids are the most diverse taxon (605 species), with their highest diversity in the North West Pacific (139 species), East Asian Sea (120 species), and Central Indian Ocean (44 species). The diversity patterns of Cryptoniscoidea (99 species, endoparasites of a diverse assemblage of crustacean hosts) are distinct from bopyrids, with the greatest diversity of cryptoniscoids in the North East Atlantic (18 species) followed by the Antarctic, Mediterranean, and Arctic regions (13, 12, and 8 species, respectively). Dajidae (54 species, ectoparasites of shrimp, mysids, and euphausids) exhibits highest diversity in the Antarctic (7 species) with 14 species in the Arctic and North East Atlantic regions combined. Entoniscidae (37 species, endoparasites within anomuran, brachyuran and shrimp hosts) show highest diversity in the North West Pacific (10 species) and North East Atlantic (8 species). Most epicarideans are known from relatively shallow waters, although some bopyrids are known from depths below 4000 m. Lack of parasitic groups in certain geographic areas is likely a sampling artifact and we predict that the Central Indian Ocean and East Asian Sea (in particular, the Indo-Malay-Philippines Archipelago) hold a wealth of undescribed species, reflecting our knowledge of host diversity patterns

Earthquake catalogs for intermediate-term predictions and seismic hazard analysis

Ninth Workshop on Non-linear Dynamics and Earthquake Predictions\u201d Direttori: V.I. Keilis-Borok, G.F. Panza, A.A. Soloviev, (Trieste, 1-13 Ottobre 2007)